2039 Jacksonville Hurricanes Preview
Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:48 pm
Jacksonville Hurricanes
The Hurricanes have been Category 5 competition for their Johnson League rivals since the dawn of the 2030s. Just pencil them in for 90 wins or better and then move on. Last year, they topped 100 wins without breaking a sweat.
Will 2039 be any different?
In some ways yes, some ways no. Of course the Hurricanes are, again, heavy favorites to win the division and of course they’ll be in the postseason mix again.
But will they crack triple digits in wins, as they did last year? That’ll be tougher. They lost some notable talent to free agency in the form of shortstop Reece Wareham (4.7 WAR) and starting pitcher Egbert Behner (5.0 WAR). And while Jacksonville has signed a couple of pitchers, neither quite measures up to the talent lost.
All that said, the drop-off shouldn’t exactly be steep. The BBN preseason predictions put the Hurricanes down for 95 wins, and who am I to argue?
Let’s take a closer look, anyway, shall we?
Last Season in a Nutshell
The Hurricanes won 108 games a year ago and won the Johnson League Southeast Division … wait for it … by 34 games over second place Huntsville.
They had pitching, they had hitting, they had star power – they had everything.
So it was something of a surprise and disappointment to see them bow out of the playoffs in the Doubleday Series, losing to Las Vegas 4 games to 3.
But don't fret - they'll likely have ample opportunities for revenge this season.
The Tale of the Tape
Record: 108-54, 1st in the Johnson League Southeast
Runs Scored: 957 (5.9 per game – 2nd)
Runs Allowed: 719 (4.4 per game – 3rd)
Run Differential: +238
Payroll: $114,440,738 (1st)
Attendance: 3,566,454 (2nd)
Notable Players Added
Taisuke Suzuki, SP (FA)
Zhi-xin Chien, SP (FA)
Notable Players Lost
Egbert Behner, SP (FA)
Reece Wareham, SS (FA)
José Carlos Solíz, SP (Released)
Offseason Recap
As noted earlier, free agency was something of a mixed bag for Jacksonville. All told, Jacksonville lost 10.3 points of WAR to free agency and the Rule 5 draft, plus another 3.7 points with the release of Soliz, for a total of 14. GM Tyler Simmons added 5.2 WAR with the signings of Suzuki and Chien, for a net loss of 8.8 WAR.
For some teams, that would be devastating. Jacksonville, on the other hand, should survive quite nicely, thank you.
Starting Rotation
GM Simmons assesses his pool of rotation candidates as “a ton of crap starting pitchers,” which is bit harsh … but not totally inaccurate. Chien (6/6/8, 97-99 mph) has decent skill ratings, but a stamina rating of only 4. That shouldn’t hurt Jacksonville much, though, because it has the bullpen talent to offset that weakness. Suzuki, the other free agent signing, looks pretty average (6/5/6, 93-95 mph, 7 stamina). And the rest of the pool - Juan Jose Fuentes, Raúl Gerela, Kelile Chimanga – is similar. Simmons says he’s still hoping to swing a deal to upgrade this unit, and … well, there’s plenty of room for upgrading.
Bullpen
One of the canniest moves Simmons made, arguably, was signing dominant closer Peter Grady (9/5/9, 97-99 mph, 10 stamina) to a five-year $35 million contract. Given that Grady appeared in 103 games, threw 210.2 innings, won 17 games and saved 34, he’s pretty much an entire bullpen on his own. Except the Hurricanes also have Donald Harris (10/7/3, 99-101 mph, 6 stamina), and Gonzalo Mercado (9/7/8, 95-97 mph, 2 stamina) and Lorenzo Montalvo (8/4/8, 96-98 mph, 7 stamina).
Now you can see why Jacksonville doesn’t have to sweat its starting rotation too much … this bullpen is crazy good.
Infield and Catcher
C – Paco Diaz ( 4/6/7/9/6) isn’t necessarily an offensive force, but he’s got some pop in his bat (18 homers a year ago), he’s got elite plate discipline, and he’s excellent behind the plate (8 catcher ability). Juan Guerrero, the backup, is pretty meh offensively (4/4/6/5/5) but has a cannon (10-rated) arm.
1B – Manuel Martinez (6/6/9/8/5). Men want to be him, women want to be with him, managers just want to pencil him in the lineup, sit back, and watch the fun. He was good for 4.9 WAR, .997 OPS, 48 homers, and 119 RBIs last season. Next year, he’s arbitration-eligible, so that could get expensive … but for now, it’s baseball Nirvana.
2B - Edgardo Encarnación (8/7/2/4/9). Strong offense (.310/.342/.434) and strong defense for $500,000 a year. What else could you want?
SS – With Wareham’s departure, this looms as something of a weak spot. William S. Hardy is excellent in the field, fleet of foot, and has a good eye at the plate, but is not a strong offensive player (4/3/2/8/5).
3B – The opposite of a weak link is … David Noboru (8/7/7/3/4). Those offensive ratings would be sweet enough, but he’s also terrific in the field and has elite speed. At $26 million a year, he ain’t cheap … but you get what you pay for: a tremendous talent.
Outfield and DH
CF – Rocky Allen (7/8/6/5/7) combines elite defense and speed with terrific offense for a pretty near ideal package. The only cloud on the horizon here is he went down in Spring Training with a serious ankle sprain and figures to be out of the lineup until the season opens. Hopefully, this isn’t something that lingers. His backup, Mitsuhide Suzuki (6/6/6/6/5) is plenty capable if called upon. His defense and speed are also top notch.
LF – Victor Batista (5/5/7/3/6) is far from an elite talent at the plate, but he did slash .271/.323/.545 with 28 homers a year ago. His outfield defense (7/9/6) is strong, too.
RF – Brett White (7/7/9/5/7), on the other hand, pretty much defines elite offensive talent. With 6.1 WAR and a slash line of .305/.353/.622 with 47 homers … well, what else would you want? Good defense, you say? Well, he’s got that, too, so shut up.
DH - José Zúñiga (8/8/9/5/7). So, you were mentioning elite offensive talent? Zúñiga’s skill ratings and minor league output fairly scream it, but he still needs to show it at the big league level. In 59 games last season, he slashed .247/.340/.391 with 5 homers and 0.1 WAR. The Hurricanes are counting on more. Should he falter, they still have Bertram Hahn (5/5/8/9/7) in the wings. He was good for 1.8 WAR a year ago.
2039 Outlook
Well, whaddaya think on the ol' outlook? I’m gonna go with pretty damn good. And, if Tyler can land an arm or two for the rotation, they’ll be even better.
Prediction: I’ll go BNN one better and figure on a 96-66 campaign, with an easy division win and a competitive post-season run.
In other words, Johnson League rivals, find yourself a solid storm shelter and take cover.
The Hurricanes have been Category 5 competition for their Johnson League rivals since the dawn of the 2030s. Just pencil them in for 90 wins or better and then move on. Last year, they topped 100 wins without breaking a sweat.
Will 2039 be any different?
In some ways yes, some ways no. Of course the Hurricanes are, again, heavy favorites to win the division and of course they’ll be in the postseason mix again.
But will they crack triple digits in wins, as they did last year? That’ll be tougher. They lost some notable talent to free agency in the form of shortstop Reece Wareham (4.7 WAR) and starting pitcher Egbert Behner (5.0 WAR). And while Jacksonville has signed a couple of pitchers, neither quite measures up to the talent lost.
All that said, the drop-off shouldn’t exactly be steep. The BBN preseason predictions put the Hurricanes down for 95 wins, and who am I to argue?
Let’s take a closer look, anyway, shall we?
Last Season in a Nutshell
The Hurricanes won 108 games a year ago and won the Johnson League Southeast Division … wait for it … by 34 games over second place Huntsville.
They had pitching, they had hitting, they had star power – they had everything.
So it was something of a surprise and disappointment to see them bow out of the playoffs in the Doubleday Series, losing to Las Vegas 4 games to 3.
But don't fret - they'll likely have ample opportunities for revenge this season.
The Tale of the Tape
Record: 108-54, 1st in the Johnson League Southeast
Runs Scored: 957 (5.9 per game – 2nd)
Runs Allowed: 719 (4.4 per game – 3rd)
Run Differential: +238
Payroll: $114,440,738 (1st)
Attendance: 3,566,454 (2nd)
Notable Players Added
Taisuke Suzuki, SP (FA)
Zhi-xin Chien, SP (FA)
Notable Players Lost
Egbert Behner, SP (FA)
Reece Wareham, SS (FA)
José Carlos Solíz, SP (Released)
Offseason Recap
As noted earlier, free agency was something of a mixed bag for Jacksonville. All told, Jacksonville lost 10.3 points of WAR to free agency and the Rule 5 draft, plus another 3.7 points with the release of Soliz, for a total of 14. GM Tyler Simmons added 5.2 WAR with the signings of Suzuki and Chien, for a net loss of 8.8 WAR.
For some teams, that would be devastating. Jacksonville, on the other hand, should survive quite nicely, thank you.
Starting Rotation
GM Simmons assesses his pool of rotation candidates as “a ton of crap starting pitchers,” which is bit harsh … but not totally inaccurate. Chien (6/6/8, 97-99 mph) has decent skill ratings, but a stamina rating of only 4. That shouldn’t hurt Jacksonville much, though, because it has the bullpen talent to offset that weakness. Suzuki, the other free agent signing, looks pretty average (6/5/6, 93-95 mph, 7 stamina). And the rest of the pool - Juan Jose Fuentes, Raúl Gerela, Kelile Chimanga – is similar. Simmons says he’s still hoping to swing a deal to upgrade this unit, and … well, there’s plenty of room for upgrading.
Bullpen
One of the canniest moves Simmons made, arguably, was signing dominant closer Peter Grady (9/5/9, 97-99 mph, 10 stamina) to a five-year $35 million contract. Given that Grady appeared in 103 games, threw 210.2 innings, won 17 games and saved 34, he’s pretty much an entire bullpen on his own. Except the Hurricanes also have Donald Harris (10/7/3, 99-101 mph, 6 stamina), and Gonzalo Mercado (9/7/8, 95-97 mph, 2 stamina) and Lorenzo Montalvo (8/4/8, 96-98 mph, 7 stamina).
Now you can see why Jacksonville doesn’t have to sweat its starting rotation too much … this bullpen is crazy good.
Infield and Catcher
C – Paco Diaz ( 4/6/7/9/6) isn’t necessarily an offensive force, but he’s got some pop in his bat (18 homers a year ago), he’s got elite plate discipline, and he’s excellent behind the plate (8 catcher ability). Juan Guerrero, the backup, is pretty meh offensively (4/4/6/5/5) but has a cannon (10-rated) arm.
1B – Manuel Martinez (6/6/9/8/5). Men want to be him, women want to be with him, managers just want to pencil him in the lineup, sit back, and watch the fun. He was good for 4.9 WAR, .997 OPS, 48 homers, and 119 RBIs last season. Next year, he’s arbitration-eligible, so that could get expensive … but for now, it’s baseball Nirvana.
2B - Edgardo Encarnación (8/7/2/4/9). Strong offense (.310/.342/.434) and strong defense for $500,000 a year. What else could you want?
SS – With Wareham’s departure, this looms as something of a weak spot. William S. Hardy is excellent in the field, fleet of foot, and has a good eye at the plate, but is not a strong offensive player (4/3/2/8/5).
3B – The opposite of a weak link is … David Noboru (8/7/7/3/4). Those offensive ratings would be sweet enough, but he’s also terrific in the field and has elite speed. At $26 million a year, he ain’t cheap … but you get what you pay for: a tremendous talent.
Outfield and DH
CF – Rocky Allen (7/8/6/5/7) combines elite defense and speed with terrific offense for a pretty near ideal package. The only cloud on the horizon here is he went down in Spring Training with a serious ankle sprain and figures to be out of the lineup until the season opens. Hopefully, this isn’t something that lingers. His backup, Mitsuhide Suzuki (6/6/6/6/5) is plenty capable if called upon. His defense and speed are also top notch.
LF – Victor Batista (5/5/7/3/6) is far from an elite talent at the plate, but he did slash .271/.323/.545 with 28 homers a year ago. His outfield defense (7/9/6) is strong, too.
RF – Brett White (7/7/9/5/7), on the other hand, pretty much defines elite offensive talent. With 6.1 WAR and a slash line of .305/.353/.622 with 47 homers … well, what else would you want? Good defense, you say? Well, he’s got that, too, so shut up.
DH - José Zúñiga (8/8/9/5/7). So, you were mentioning elite offensive talent? Zúñiga’s skill ratings and minor league output fairly scream it, but he still needs to show it at the big league level. In 59 games last season, he slashed .247/.340/.391 with 5 homers and 0.1 WAR. The Hurricanes are counting on more. Should he falter, they still have Bertram Hahn (5/5/8/9/7) in the wings. He was good for 1.8 WAR a year ago.
2039 Outlook
Well, whaddaya think on the ol' outlook? I’m gonna go with pretty damn good. And, if Tyler can land an arm or two for the rotation, they’ll be even better.
Prediction: I’ll go BNN one better and figure on a 96-66 campaign, with an easy division win and a competitive post-season run.
In other words, Johnson League rivals, find yourself a solid storm shelter and take cover.