2039 Montreal Blazers

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RonCo
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2039 Montreal Blazers

Post by RonCo » Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:18 pm

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The Montreal Blazer’s offense scored 4.7 runs a game last year, which was just a tick below the JL’s 4.8 run average. Their pitching and defense allowed 5.2 runs a game, which was, again, a notch worse than the average 4.9. It all added up to 75 wins and a third-place finish in the Johnson League Atlantic Division.

Their off-season started with losing a few aging veterans (catchers Hank Brewer left under shady conditions for big Crawdad cash, and Dave Robertson retired, while guys like Rupert Grant and Roberto Lopez went the free agency route--Lopez bolting to the UMEBA). But GM Kevin Spencer has shown a bit of a wily hand by adding pitchers Felipe Baez, Rogerio Vazquez, and John Jefferson to cheap, short-term deals, and taking defensive center fielder Tony Perez from Calgary in the Rule 5 draft.

If you trust the game’s version of WAR, it says that the off-season has netted Montreal fans a total of 1.7 wins, so this projections should then be easy, right? The club won 75 games in 2038, and by my new math, 75+1.7 = 76.7.

Q.E. Freaking D.

Of course, that’s not really the story in Montreal.

I mean, I’d go with that number, except that the Blazers are young, the pitching staff is a little threadbare, and quite honestly, the Johnson League was not very good last year. They’ll get better. Finally, the moves that Spencer is making are not the moves of a team planning to hit the accelerator. No. Not at all. The moves he’s making are the kinds of things a savy GM will do while they tread water—the kinds of moves that, yes, win that 1.7 More games than last year, but perhaps do not make the hearts of fans race.

There’s a reason for that, of course—and that reason can be seen in the waves of younger players that the team is lining up (I note that perhaps the biggest move Montreal’s front office made was to drop $6M into the IFA pool for shortstop Mahine Karetu—some worry that the Korean’s defense may require a move over to second base, or, depending on how Lineu Aldo develops, even first, but, quite honestly, that’s the pipeline the team needed filled anyway...nothing like having a Zimmer quality defensive guy with a little pop in the organzation).

Bottom line to me: 2039 is a bit of a crap-shoot for Montreal fans. This is the kind of team that can step up and win a little, or the kind of team that can crumble in the heat of the summer. Only time will really tell. But, while fans might fret, I don’t think the front office is too concerned one way or the other. I think Montreal will take whatever they can get this year, but that their eyes are focused on 2041 and beyond.

Let’s see what I mean, all right?

PITCHING

At 23 years old, Vincente Lopez is a four-season veteran, and he’s a good one (his 6-14 record stands testament to why you don’t use pitching wins in a small sample size to mean much). He’ll anchor this staff for now, but the truth is that Lopez as an ace leaves something to be desired. Make him a #2, though, and suddenly things look pretty rosy. The team has at least three arms in the pipeline who look like they’ll make a difference, though, including 20 year-old Jorge Moreno, who could well wind up as the ace in the hole.

25-year-old Jesus Lopez (9-12, 4.37) will probably be #2 this year. Between stints in Vegas and Montreal, he’s in his fourth service year. A nice guy to have around, probably a league average starter or a shade above. You’d be happier with him in the #3 slot, and happier still as a #4. But he can get the job done, and he’ll win some games. The aforementioned Vazquez and Baez will slot in the #3/#4 holes. Or #2 sometimes. I don’t know. Neither are guys you expect to lead a squad to the Landis anytime soon, but they can hold down the fort a bit.

#5 is a toss-up.

Bottom line, As it stands today the rotation just isn’t enough to make anything other than the most rabid fan think the Blazers can make it happen in 2039. But you can see that the design of the staff is well-laid to play the holding action for two seasons. We suspect Lopez and Lopez will be extended into their older seasons sometime soon, and that when the young arms roll into town, things will take a mega-step up.

Same kind of thing in the bullpen, where you start with one of the more interesting rookies in the league last season, 24-year-old lefthander Drees Geestman, and then move on to a whole suite of guys who can just generally get the job done. Geestman’s numbers were enough to make your teeth grind (3-4, 6.87, 2 saves in 32 games), but scouts love his stuff. Some are suggesting he could wind up starting for a bit, as he did in two games last season.

The two guys to look for are 25-year-old Alberto Ramirez, and 23-year-old Matvey Voznov. Alberto Deleon (23) is also intriguing, but, man, that “3” movement makes me cringe. Jose Dyola is a workaday kind of guy there, though, and the addition of Jefferson will help add depth. There are a few other guys there who can pitch in a pinch.

All total, I would expect Blazer fans are going to see some adventures from the pen, but several of those adventures will have happy endings. Others, of course, will be tragedies. Such is the life of a team waiting on the kiddie korps…still, if one or two of these guys steps up and has a stellar season, the Blazers will surprise.

Ya gotta love baseball.

HITTING

After last season’s departures, Anibal Garcia lookslike he inherits most of the innings behind the plate. He’s fine. Maybe. Hopefully better than his dreadful 2038, but really more replacement level than starter. That’s all good, though, because the Blazer front office is likely hoping for a big development year for prospect Rainer Scheffer, a soon-to-be 18 year old who floundered in Rookie ball after being their #2 pick last draft, but who’s scouting reports suggest his bat could be better than Garcia’s before the end of the year. At question then is the glove. One suggests that even if Garcia’s stint lasts into 2040, it won’t make it to 2041.

The infield looks like veteran Benjamin Dale (27) at first base, 24-year-old vet Kel Bacon at second, 22-year-old rookie Terry Rowland debuting at third, and journeyman glove George Bluth (30) at shortstop. Bottom line, all these guys can do something good. It’s a picture-perfect image of a steady-eddy major league infield, about the only thing you can complain about is that they all hit from the right side of the plate—well, all except Bluth, who doesn’t really hit at all. Again, though, you look at the minors and see 2B Aldo, SS, Wagaw Fakihi, 3B Eduardo Gonzalez, and Karetu in the deep-parts of the organization, and you have to think the whole goal here is just to avoid collapse until 2041 (or for some 2042).

The transition is more advanced in the outfield, where 30 year-old Victor Chavez was brought in last year and held down the fort just fine, thank you very much. Expect he’ll have the opportunity to do more of the same, though I think Rule 5er Perez was an interesting addition. I expect Perez will play defense at the end of games, making pitchers very happy.

24-year-old Sinner Santana, however, is a real-life major league hitter in right field who will be looking at his final year of arbitration next year. I look for the Blazers to either trade him for value, or lock hm up to a long term contract to act as a transition piece for their kids to build around. The later is more likely, but the former is tastier to think about. In left, Kevin MacKeith proved he can hit last year, and is a solid glove. Young Jim Antolin (22) and Jassiem Dukuzumuremyi (23, and voted most likely to be called Jazzy-D by most fans) are guys Montreal followers are going to get to know a little.

Bottom line, this is likely the clay that will molded into the outfield of the near-term future for the Blazers.

Overall, it looks like a plan is coming together, but, once again, the chances of a big season, while not zero, are not particularly high. So we come to the point where we're supposed to predict the future. Which is Hella-tough in the case of the Blazers. As noted above, they won 75 last year and seemed to earn it. They are a better team this year--probably--but, then, so are several of their Johnson League competitors. They are mostly young, though, and it is my view that young teams generally get better as time goes along. Maybe they get a break-out season from someone, right? What then Swami?

Then there are injuries...to them, and to others.

What's a guy to do, right? What's a guy to do...

PREDICTION: 76.7 Wins
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
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Re: 2039 Montreal Blazers

Post by jleddy » Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:44 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:18 pm
PREDICTION: 76.7 Wins
Are wins against Brooklyn only worth 0.7?

[sneaks out the back door]
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

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