2039 Huntsville Phantoms Season Preview

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2039 Huntsville Phantoms Season Preview

Post by jleddy » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:10 am

2038 Review
It only takes one word to recap and summarize the 2038 season for the Huntsville Phantoms: chaotic. The team saw its lowest win total (74) and first sub-.500 record since 2034. Numerous injuries, regressing performances from key contributors and clashing personalities in the clubhouse were just a few of the storylines that haunted Huntsville and keep general manager Vic Caleca up at nights. Over the offseason, the team saw itself sold to a Chicago towing magnate, spurring rumors of the team's potential relocation back to the Windy City, where the franchise originated as the Chicago Black Sox from 1973-2020.

Key additions (2038 stats): C Hotha Popo (92 OPS+, 2.7 WAR), a Matsuhito Imai-free clubhouse

Key departures (2038 stats): 2B Leyli Yelanian (105 OPS+, 2.2 WAR), RF Adrian Young (88 OPS+, 0.4 WAR), C Luis Barrera (103 OPS+, 2.9 WAR), David Hall (75 OPS+, -0.5 WAR)

Offense Preview
Aside from power metrics (2nd in Johnson League ISO%, 3rd in JL HR, 5th in JL SLG%), Huntsville was in the bottom-half of nearly every offensive statistic. Going into 2038, you would have expected the Phantoms to rank near the top of leaderboards so there is some hope for a bounce-back. David Hall was exiled to the UMEBA after hitting 11 HR in 2038, not quite what Phantom fans were expected coming off three-straight 40+ HR campaigns. So now the offense will be anchored by 22-year-old left fielder Fernando Reyes. The former 7th-overall draft pick is entering his third year in the BBA and coming off a season in which the blooming star his 46 home runs with an OPS+ of 137. Reyes has the offensive profile to become a perennial All-Star, if not Silk Award candidate. Unfortunately for manager Bret Richards, Reyes looks to be the only sure-bet for 2038, as a majority of the lineup surrounding him are coming off hugely disappointing years:

PLAYER2037 STATS2038 STATSOPS+ DIFF
3B Juan Rivera.329/.392/.512.241/.296/.374-59
DH Norris Rutledge.305/.371/.567.254/.323/.476-34
2B Luis González.313/.355/.412.270/.308/.363-24
SS Santiago Morales.275/.320/.398.252/.285/.378-13
Getting Rutledge back on track would be huge for the club. The slugger routinely hits .290 with 35 home runs and Reyes will need protection as Johnson League pitchers try to figure him out. Tim Torres will need to return to his All-Star (2037) and Diamond Glove (2036-2037) ways and at only 24-years-old, he's got plenty of runway to take off. The Phantoms finished last year with a Johnson League third-worst OBP% of .314, so the addition of free agent catcher Popo and his .397 OBP over the past two years will be a welcome sight. First baseman Tommy Cochran has yet to show the promise he had when Huntsville made him a first-round draft pick in 2034. The battle between Cochran and 2038 part-time rookie starter Emílio Lugo (125 OPS+ in 189 at-bats) will be worth watching, with the potential of the two becoming a platoon at first base a possibility. Much to the chagrin of Caleca, left fielder Ramiro Marino executed his $5M player option and he'll be on a short-leash after posting a consecutive seasons of 80 and 82 OPS+. It should be noted that a majority of the offense in 2039 will be potentially filled by many players entering their sophomore seasons (Cochran, Lugo, OFs Manny Cleide and Raúl Gasco), so there's as much hope as there is risk.

Projected Lineup
CF Tim Torres
DH Norris Rutledge
LF Fernando Reyes
1B Emilio Lugo
3B Víctor Bedolla
C Hotha Popo
2B Luis Gonzalez
RF Manny Cleide
SS Hakim Ngowa

Bench
OF Raul Gasco
1B/3B Albert Ayala
OF Ramiro Marino
INF Santiago Morales
C Sergio Hernandez
1B Tommy Cochran

Pitching Preview
Huntsville pitchers produced middle-of-the-road production during last season, struggling the most in allowing hits (2nd worst in Johnson League) and strikeouts (2nd worst in JL). The silver-lining would be a second-best finish in home runs allowed, quite the feat considering the Phantoms' home park. Signs pointed early to a long season for Huntsville pitchers, as starter Ludwig Charles suffered a season-ending achilles injuring during spring training, forcing the team to scramble to replace his innings. Charles is no longer with the team, making Juan Nicto Huntsville's de facto ace for a second straight season. Yu-bao Tong and Manuel Peña are expected to fill in behind Nicto, however both pitchers put up ERAs north of 5.00 last year. Battling for the final two spots are three pitchers, second-year starters François Mangin and Vito Reyes, plus lefty jokester Alejandro Soto. Unfortunately the lack of stand-out arms is no laughing matter in Hunstville. 20-year-old Amayas Moelling looks like has a bright future but will Huntsville call on the kid or send him to the minors for some additional seasoning? With no other impressive pitching prospects in the high minors, it's going to be a hope-and-pray approach. Reliever Justin Archer has an electric arm but save situations are expected to be few and far between this year. At least the second-year fireballer will be able to work on his memoirs out in the bullpen during the year.

Projected Rotation
SP Juan Nicto
SP Manuel Peña
SP Yu-bao Tong
SP François Mangin
SP Alejandro Soto

Bullpen
LR Frits Brinson
LR Kiyohira Yamada
MR Angel Diaz
MR Celestino Balazes
MR Juan Alfonzo
SU Esteban Velasquez
CL Justin Archer

Unanswered Questions
Have the Phantoms exercised the Mutsuhito Imai demons? Imai arrived in Huntsville via trade as a top-100 prospect but never panned out. It got so bad, Imai became a clubhouse cancer and constant thorn in the side of GM Caleca before being waived in October. Rumors are the chemistry improved immediately so maybe all of the 2038 struggles could point to Imai?

How soon before fans start cajoling for Moelling? The lone Namibian in the BBA is ranked the #11 prospect in baseball and fills Huntsville biggest hole: quality pitching. After logging 196 innings in Triple A last year, Moelling appears ready to make his debut but will he break camp? Many believe he'll get called up by late April as the front office looks to manipulate his service time and delay his free agency down the road by a year.

BBA.tv Rating: 5.7
Archer's personality and even livelier arm will be a draw for fans, but how often do relievers move the needle? Reyes, Torres and Cochran (should he make the roster) have the ability to produce viral highlights, but the majority of the rest of the team are a faceless bunch.

2039 Prediction
After such a letdown in 2038 and attempting to keep payroll reasonable for what looks like an upcoming rebuild-on-the-fly, Caleca only made one major signing during the off-season in Popo, albeit a significant one. Baseball insiders believe Huntsville is a year or two from seeing their top prospects bear fruit in the BBA so this team isn't quite ready for prime time. The offense should positively regress after last season's hiccup but expectations beyond finishing .500 should be quelled. An 80-82 record should be looked at as a success and a building block for the future of the franchise.
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

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Re: 2039 Huntsville Phantoms Season Preview

Post by HoosierVic » Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:34 am

Excellent job, Joe! I will confess that I was ticked when Marino executed his option - especially since the sim before he’d given me a “play me or I’m leaving” ultimatum. You’d have thought me getting him an Uber ride to the airport would have been hint enough ...

Moelling might need just a bit more seasoning at this point. He’s close but not quite there - a May or June call-up might be realistic. Would love to see him fill in his potential just a bit more.

Your prediction, I think, is spot on - perhaps a bit generous. But we’ll see. If we can hit .500, I’ll be happy.

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Re: 2039 Huntsville Phantoms Season Preview

Post by usnspecialist » Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:00 am

The BBA.tv rating is gold. Is that stolen from Zach Lowe (who probably stole it from Bill Simmons) on his NBA league pass rating?
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Re: 2039 Huntsville Phantoms Season Preview

Post by RonCo » Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:06 pm

Much to like about this read. BBA.tv rating, yes...Imai-free clubhouse. Team ownership dynamics.

Well done.

--- Also of note is the work Vic will be doing to convert the team from the Stever system to however he sees the game.
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Re: 2039 Huntsville Phantoms Season Preview

Post by jleddy » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:10 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:00 am
The BBA.tv rating is gold. Is that stolen from Zach Lowe (who probably stole it from Bill Simmons) on his NBA league pass rating?
It just came to me while figuring out categories of this first review but since you mention is, being a Lowe and Simmons devotee, I’m sure the League Pass rating was recessed deep into my psyche.
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

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