2039 San Antonio Outlaws Season Preview

[jleddy]

2038 Review
All in all, last year was a success for the San Antonio Outlaws. For the first time since 2032, the team finished above .500 (84-78) and reached the Johnson League playoffs, claiming the last wild card spot in an ultra-competitive Sun Belt Division. After drawing less than 1.9M fans in 2036 with a payroll of only $58.5M, the team topped three million in attendance and spent over $105M in payroll.

Key additions (2038 stats): CF Jorge Vargas (79 OPS+, 0.7 WAR), C António Tobías (102 OPS+, 2.2 WAR)

Key departures (2038 stats): CF Willard Gagne (100 OPS+, 2.0 WAR), SP Ángelo Delgado (93 ERA+, 0.2 WAR), SP Roberto Cruz (81 ERA+, 1.2 WAR), SS Norm Smith (110 OPS+, 1.1 WAR)

Offense Preview
Offensively speaking, 2038 was mediocre for the Outlaws, showing no true strengths or weaknesses and finishing in the middle of Johnson League statistical outputs. The year featured a few pleasant surprises (rookie 1B Tony Hernández slashed .308/.356/.552 for 3.5 WAR, RF Mark White built on his breakout 2037 season to go .309/.368/.516), as well as a couple of disappointments (3B Jesús Gonzáles saw his production drop from 104 OPS+/3.2 WAR to 63 OPS+/-0.1 WAR and 2037 All-Star Chang-hyeok Chang couldn't follow-up his batting title, dropping his value from 5.3 WAR to 0.7 WAR). The offense will once again be led by second baseman Ángel De Castillo, who's enjoyed a good career thus far but has yet to provide production that matches his $120M contract. A follow-up after his nice rookie season by Hernandez will go a long way in helping San Antonio, however his breakout has led to a logjam at designated hitter. The team has three candidates available for only one spot: Madhi Kojo, Andy Seekins, and Manuel Núñez, plus the odd man out in the 3B battle between Gonzáles and Lúcio Cuellar. Credit general manager Mike Calvaruso for addressing the team's need for bats, adding Vargas and Tobías in the off-season, however the Outlaws will have one of the weakest and least-versatile benches in the entire BBA.

Projected Lineup
RF Mark White
2B Ángel De Castillo
LF Chang-hyeok Chang
1B Tony Hernández
C António Tobías
DH Lúcio Cuellar
3B Jesús Gonzáles
CF Jorge Vargas
SS Pedro Suárez

Bench
OF Fernando Colón
1B Andy Seekins
C Júlio Meléndez
INF Shaun Emmott
3B Mun-Wah Duan
OF Tony Vega

Pitching Preview
As uninspiring as the San Antonio offense looks to be, the pitching is where all the team's talent lies, along with their hopes of returning to the post-season. The team features two aces in Yrrigs Carpenter and Aki Kondo. "Yrrigs the Mad" followed up a fantastic rookie season to go 18-6 with a league-leading 2.70 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, earning the Englishman his first Steve Nebraska Award. Kondo went from 'very good' to 'great' after a 13-8 season with a league-leading 10.5 K/9 and shiny 1.09 WHIP. His breakout was rewarded during this off-season, as Calvaruso inked the 25-year-old to a six-year contract extension for $149M. The duo will be supported by another talented young arm in Jorge Álvarez. Álvarez, 22, spent 2038 rookie season pitching out of the bullpen but will be expected to join the staff this season. A capable bullpen is expected to keep San Antonio in games before handing the ball off to closer Roberto Lizardo, who has the talent to top the Johnson League in saves one day.

Projected Rotation
SP Yrrigs Carpenter
SP Aki Kondo
SP Jorge Álvarez
SP José Olivas
SP Luis Piña

Bullpen
LR Miguel Peña
LR Mei-shan Ngui
MR Luis Miguel Flores
MR Xavier Pérez
MR Eric Holliday
SU Ramón Sánchez
CL Roberto Lizardo

Unanswered Questions
Will the Outlaw coaches shoot themselves in the foot? San Antonio watched three of its coaching staff (manager Eric Covington, bench coach Jean-Philippe Tétreault and pitching coach Art Messer) walk after last season, allowing their contracts to expire. Calvaruso made three questionable hires to replace the trio: Arthur Carlson and Brett Cochran were named manager and bench coach, respectively. Neither has any coaching experience and reports out of spring training have called both men as "controlling". The new pitching coach, Dean Marrufo, hasn't coached since 2020 and has zero professional coaching experience. Will the lack of leadership from the staff be San Antonio's downfall or a non-factor? It'll be a situation worth watching all season.

What in-season moves will Calvaruso make? With a handful of sub-par starters and a weak bench, one believes there will be plenty of options for Calvaruso to make improvements on the fly. Expect the team to take a look at placing claims on the waiver wire early in the year and a trade or two mid-season isn't out of the question.

BBA.tv Rating: 6.6
Fans of dominating pitching performances will love following the Outlaws all year long but 1-0 and 2-1 final scores aren't the most rating-friendly of outcomes. Go ahead and tune in when Carpenter and Kondo face your team but aside from that, this young, average offense isn't much of a draw.

2039 Prediction
Signs point to this year ending up more like last season's expected record of 77-85 than it's actual 84-win campaign. Despite outstanding pitching, the Outlaws will likely be in a number of low-scoring affairs unless the offense breaks out in a major way. The Johnson League's Sun Belt Division will again be competitive, doing the Outlaws no favors. Barring an unexpected offensive breakout, look for San Antonio to miss the postseason with a 80-82 record and experience it's eleventh losing season in the last fourteen years.

[bigmike13]

I sure hope your wrong. Thanks for the write up.

[HoosierVic]

Comprehensive overview, interesting read. The top of that rotation is truly impressive. This team is a little like the 67 White Sox: dynamic pitching rotation, meh offense. Will be interesting to watch it play out.

[jleddy]

I sure hope your wrong. Thanks for the write up.

If all goes well with the offense (plus maybe a trade or waiver-wire find or two), that rotation can carry you to the playoffs for sure.

[RonCo]

Part of the issue with predicting the Johnson League is that it was so weird last year.