2038 Frick League Cartwright Cup Preview: Edmonton vs. Seattle

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2038 Frick League Cartwright Cup Preview: Edmonton vs. Seattle

Post by aaronweiner » Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:43 am

Quick info:

Edmonton record: 93-69
Edmonton run differential: 858/706


Seattle record: 92-70
Las Vegas run differential: 807/705


Head to head:

Seattle won the season series 7-5, with a run differential of 56-48, an an average score of 4.7 runs for Seattle to 4 runs for Edmonton. Seattle did sweep Edmonton late in the season impressively, knocking off Bobby Lynch and Jesus Ramos while holding the Jackrabbits to just six runs in three games.

Overview:

Welcome to the FL Frontier grudge match. Just one game separated these two teams during the regular season. Edmonton, who looked as if they were going to get the #1 seed in the first half of the season, didn't clinch the Frontier until the second to last day of the year, stumbling in both August and September to make what seemed like a 100% sure thing into a gigantic question mark largely because of the Seattle Storm. Seattle, who dominantly won this division two years ago, has come on confidently and strongly down the stretch, posting a 100-win pace since July 1 (50-31). Both teams had to slog through first round series and then beat heavily favored opponents in the second round, with Seattle knocking off California and Edmonton downing the Yellow Springs Nine. Edmonton's better by the overall numbers, but this is a legitimate rivalry where anything could happen. Will the Jackrabbits find their way into their first ever Landis, or will Seattle return there for the first time in 25 years? Either way we're going to crown a new FL champion.


Hitting:

Seattle's lineup is largely a star-free zone, which is one of the reasons why it's so impressive that they are where they are right now. The Storm frequently take advantage of their ballpark to post a high batting average, but their power and speed game is so anemic that they finished ninth in runs scored despite the second highest OBP. The ninth-place finish is a little bit deceiving, though, as the Storm finished just 50 runs behind fourth place Edmonton. They also didn't have rookie phenom Vincent Vanderhugen, son of Hall of Famer Bolt Vanderhugen, for a full season. Lionnel Crepin is one of the best power/walks guys in the business and John Hickman is one of the best two-way outfielders in the league. So make no mistakes: Seattle can hit. They're sure-handed in the field, too: they were the only team in the league with less errors than the Jackrabbits. One oddity of Seattle's lineup against the Jackrabbits this season is that despite outscoring Edmonton in the season series, Seattle's stars were largely ineffective against Edmonton this year, which might lead to some bogged-down rallies.


Edmonton's lineup has a lot more star power than the Storm, and it shows up in the box score. Mitch Dalyrmple and Steven Collins III were both better than anything Seattle had this year. Fernando Cruz and Dusty Rhodes are also a consistent pair in the middle of the order. They have fantastic role players like William Wood and Yi-ke Hsiao. Edmonton's 219 HR is made more impressive by the fact that like Seattle's park, Edmonton's park is a poor home run park, so they might be better than their numbers, Seattle worse. I've already made a note of their defensive prowess. The Jackrabbits run, though not quite as well as their namesake would suggest. Unlike Seattle, all of Edmonton's stars played very well against Seattle (and everyone) this year; their role players did not fare as well.


Pitching:

Any discussion of Seattle's pitching has to focus around Ken Walter, who by many metrics was one of the top five pitchers in either league. Walter averaged an absurd 7.2 innings per start this year and led the league in rWAR. Walter had some help this year, though, from 23 year old Hector Marquez, whose 22 wins were the most in the BBA this year. Luther Summers is one of the best third starters in the business, though he has been hit rather hard by Edmonton this year. Notice we didn't mention Alfredo Contreras, because while the former superstar lefty did well against the Jackrabbits this season, overall he has looked like a shell of himself lately for no good reason and has fallen from the rotation completely in the playoffs. Seattle's bullpen has pitched extremely well this year, but it's not a collection of stars; primarily, you can count on the Storm to rely on their excellent starting pitching.


For all the fanfare that Seattle's pitching gets, Edmonton finished one - ONE - run behind them in runs allowed. Bobby Lynch didn't fall all the way back this year despite his numbers, as the big-armed lefty led the team in WAR despite a 8-14 record. The preseason trade for Jubal Troop worked out, as the lefty led the Frick League in strikeouts this season, and Jesus Ramos has worked too, posting a career year at age 32. Chet Parrish continues to be as steady a starter as there is in the league. Edmonton's bullpen was third in ERA this year, though, again, it's mostly a no-stars group.


Overall:

Edmonton appears to have a numbers advantage in this series, but, remember, the Jackrabbits faded badly down the stretch. Dusty Rhodes, for example, was worth negative 2 wins in September, and all three of Edmonton's top three starters had an ERA of 5 or higher in that month despite good peripherals. Not a lot of clues from their Geoghegan rounds; both teams won in four, and Seattle gave up 12 runs while Edmonton gave up 9 in that series - not a huge distinction. Seattle's ability to score on California (25 runs in 5 games) was impressive, while Edmonton relied on three one-run wins and didn't outscore Yellow Springs in the Doubleday.

I'm going with Seattle, the hot hand, in this series, in part because I think their starting pitchers, Walter, Marquez, and Luther are better than Edmonton's Troop, Lynch and Ramos. But I don't feel good about it; Edmonton's hitters are a better group and if they can put the bat on the ball this could be a short series win for Edmonton. The longer it goes the better I feel about Seattle.

Projection: Seattle in seven.

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Re: 2038 Frick League Cartwright Cup Preview: Edmonton vs. Seattle

Post by RonCo » Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:45 pm

Nice overview...and a feather in the Frontier cap after being overshadowed by the Pacific in all the press.
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Re: 2038 Frick League Cartwright Cup Preview: Edmonton vs. Seattle

Post by crobillard » Sun Jun 02, 2019 3:34 pm

I am absolutely ecstatic about this coming down to Seattle and Edmonton. I really like Seattle's team. Mostly because it is the opposite of what Edmonton has leaned into. Both pitcher's parks. Seattle doubled down on pitching and the four pitchers who will likely be featured as starters are all exceptional. Where as Edmonton leaned more into hitting since they thought they could get away with mostly good not great pitching.

I land squarely with you Aaron on where you see this series going. I think Seattle will take it narrowly. Excellent pitchers pitching in excellent pitcher's parks. They've owned me nearly all season. Edmonton needs a huge horseshoe up their ass to secure this, Seattle just needs to perform like they have been.
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Re: 2038 Frick League Cartwright Cup Preview: Edmonton vs. Seattle

Post by bcslouck » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:23 pm

Can Edmonton be the 2nd 2028 expansion team to get to the Landis? Or can Seattle start their next run after having a stretch of having team legends retire? Definitely goes 7. Should, anyway. Man, I think the star power of Edmonton gets them over the top.
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Re: 2038 Frick League Cartwright Cup Preview: Edmonton vs. Seattle

Post by felipe » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:29 pm

both teams are rather poor; either way will likely get swept in the Finals

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Re: 2038 Frick League Cartwright Cup Preview: Edmonton vs. Seattle

Post by njherdfan » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:33 pm

felipe wrote:
Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:29 pm
both teams are rather poor; either way will likely get swept in the Finals
Thank you!
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Re: 2038 Frick League Cartwright Cup Preview: Edmonton vs. Seattle

Post by njherdfan » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:34 pm

This was an awesome preview, great stuff! I hope you're right! I don't really disagree with anything you wrote, although it's sad to see the truth about Contreras laid out like that. Thinking about a healthy Contreras is a big what-if for me with this team.
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Re: 2038 Frick League Cartwright Cup Preview: Edmonton vs. Seattle

Post by crobillard » Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:16 pm

felipe wrote:
Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:29 pm
both teams are rather poor; either way will likely get swept in the Finals
Take it back
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