2036 Long Beach Surfers - The Season Starts in August, Right?

[agrudez]

2035 Review
Last year was a tale of two teams in Long Beach. Looking back on some random dates in time, here were the Surfers' records:

5/5 11-18
6/23 34-39
8/25 64-65
10/2 85-77

As you can see, by the end of April the team was looking like a contender for the #1 overall pick and by the end of the season they were a darkhorse WC contender. From 8/25 through the end of the season, the team went an impressive 21-12, in fact. So, who *were* the Long Beach Surfers - the start of season squad or the end of season squad? Or, could they have perhaps been even *better* than the end of season squad considering their run was *after* they were seller's at the deadline (jettisoning players like Yelanian) had they stayed pat for the stretch run? That question has stumped sports talking heads and been a financial windfall for hair replacement specialists for nearly a full calendar year, but now the dawn of a new season is upon us waiting to, finally, tell us the answer.

Offseason Transactions
If, as an organization, they were happy with how they ended the season and were looking forward to "running it back" and hoping for a less fluky start, their offseason didn't quite match up with that. They watched a total of 9.4 WAR from last season walk out the door between Hill, Woods, Watson, Cruz and Rodriguez. In total, that collection of players will make 12.8M next year which for 5 pieces isn't a terribly high amount, but LBC went out and spent the saved money so it isn't as if they were hoarding. Incoming (for a total of 13M aggregate) are Little, Alvarado, Young and Basaglia. All in all, that looks like a very solid trade for the Surfers. Despite their collective quality 2035 campaign, the pieces they let go seemed like they played above their heads last year and were destined for a downturn in 2036. The pieces he picked up, though, are all better quality (with the one exception of Basaglia vs. Rodriguez - though the team had more need for the former than the latter) relative to their counterparts. Little is one of the better LOOGYs in the league and Alvarado+Young creates a formidable back of the bullpen duo (having recorded a combined 3.4 WAR last season). All in all, it was a quiet offseason, but a quality one that saw the team upgrade on the margins. Also, none of the deals signed extend past this season, which will be important as some of their young players (Kazansky, Castillo, Espinoza, McHone) start to creep towards the end of their cost control years.

2036 Lineup
C RH Basaglia - The team correctly identified a need at catcher and, as the clock struck midnight before opening day, went out and got one - for cheap, no less. It might be an interesting (re: terrible) April for the backstop after not getting any ST, but it's not like a slow start has ever killed an entire season for Long Beach in the recent past, right?

1B SH Simpson - A tremendous all around hitter and a great defender, too. Plug in another 5+ WAR for this guy in 2036.

2B LH Daniel - If you were reading the offseason transactions section and thought to yourself, 'ho hum, nothing about this team will be all *that* different' then it's because you didn't see this thoroughbred. Sure, his defense is pretty suspect, but that bat is off the charts. He's everyone's wet dream for a leadoff hitter with .38 OBP potential, elite speed to get around the bases on a hit (even if he is a piss poor SB threat... but if you hate SBs like me then who cares?) and a constant threat to sneak one down the line for a double (or better with his speed).

3B LH Bedolla / RH Best - Oh, you thought they were going to miss Yelainen? Bedolla won't mimic his numbers totally, but he won't be *that* far off and Best will very ably cover the short side of their platoon (and even just bumped some talent... **** me).

SS RH McQuade - Still one of the worst contracts in the league, but he'll hold the position down ably for the Surfers. With '6' range on either side of him at 2B and 3B I wish they had someone a little better in that department, though.

LF SH Holguin - He had an explosive offensive season last year with an otherworldly .418 OBP. I don't think he'll repeat that, but he'll still look alright with a .38 OBP and .8 OPS even if his glove leaves a bit to be desired.

CF LH Kazansky - He's been Mr. Dependable with the bat throughout his Surfer career, but his glove has always left something to be desired. Last season, his -4.8 ZR was the best of his career, so perhaps he can build on that? I wouldn't bet on it, though - he just doesn't have the range.

RF LH Gonzalez - Like Simpson, he is one of the backbones of the team and I can't imagine a world where he doesn't kill it again in 2036.

DH RH Parra - You could do worse for a DH, but you could also do demonstrably better. I really wish Holguin was the team's DH, Kazansky was their LF and they went out and got a true CF.

2036 Rotation
LH Legrand
RH Bailey
LH Jolivet
LH Castillo
RH Espinoza

This is a pretty quality rotation. Legrand is the lone arm with "star" quality, in my estimation, but slots 2-5 are all solid with no obvious, exploitable weakness. And some, like Bailey's 5 WAR last season, have shown that they can flash brilliance at times as well. Entering his age 24 season, the Surfers will no doubt be looking to Legrand to, finally, have his breakout season, because his talent is much better than what he has produced thus far (low 4, high 3 FIPs). What should excite LB fans is that he's entering the age where it becomes more plausible. In Bailey, the aforementioned season he put in last year should most certainly excite fans, but no doubt there will be those that remember his 2034 offering before getting too far ahead of themselves. Jolivet availed himself tremendously in a short stint last season and I could easily see him raising himself above Bailey in the 'pecking order' by the time the year is out. Castillo and Espinoza combined for 5.2 WAR last year which was probably a bit high based on their track records, but if they post 4 (as I expect) and Jolivet/Legrand take the next step forward (as I expect) and Bailey comes at least tangibly closer to '35 than '34 (as I expect) then it'll probably all come out in the wash. All in all, a good unit - and I really like the handedness distribution as well. That'll be an important piece of the puzzle as they compete with the LH'd heavy California lineup.

2036 Bullpen
RH McHone
RH Young
RH Alvarado
LH Scherer
LH Little
LH Alfonzo
RH Lopez

This is a very intelligently put together bullpen, imo. McHone was absolutely lights in his first season as primarily a reliever last year and will no doubt reprise his role headlining it. Young and Alvarado are about as good as you could realistically expect for a bullpen's 2nd and 3rd option - and Alvarado's stamina is off the charts which could lead him to be the unit's workhorse. In the end, I imagine these 3 getting a vast majority of bullpen innings (McHone's stamina isn't shabby either). Lopez looks to be the team's long relief and 'less often' middle reliever while the 3 lefties will be sprinkled in as LOOGYs (with Scherer being the most likely of the trio to also be used against RHers as needed). Again, with a team stacking LHBs at the top of their division, having 3 guys that can come in basically nullifies an entire turn through a lineup once you get into the late innings. I think this is a very solid unit.

2036 Prediction
This is a very good team. I would pit their top 4 offense (Daniel-Simpson-Kazansky-Gonzalez is how I would set it up) against any in the league and feel real good about their chances. They have really impressive depth, too, with Basaglia and Bedolla looking like their #8 and #9 hitter. Their rotation doesn't have near the star power of their offense, but they do have at least one arm that I'd feel confident penciling in as a true "top of the rotation" arm and their trend of depth continues all the way through their #5 SP. In the bullpen, the acquisitions of Young and Alvarado coupled with the emergence of McHone last season give them a back of the 'pen trio that at least half the teams in the league would kill for. Overall, this is a very well put together squad and, assuming they decide to play a full 162 games this time around, should put in a 2036 campaign to be proud of.

96 wins, 1st in their division (by a hair over CAL)

[Lane]

Thanks for the preview Kyle. I'm happy to hear from someone that see's the team as a contender like I do.

I think we'll have struggles against lefties again, but I don't see any reason why we're not running with California and San Fernando for the division title in September.

[Lane]

Also, I'd LOVE to have a real CF, but there's only like 3 in the whole BBA, so

[agrudez]

Also, I'd LOVE to have a real CF, but there's only like 3 in the whole BBA, so

I think I have 3 of them. Any interest in Young or Sandcastle?

[Ted]

I'm not this high on your team, but I can see it happening. The biggest problem I always have is when I add up the projected win totals for all the teams in the previews I write, I always have to find some way to lose 20 of them. you were one of the casualties this year. Speaking of those, I should get back to them.

[Lane]

I'm not this high on your team, but I can see it happening. The biggest problem I always have is when I add up the projected win totals for all the teams in the previews I write, I always have to find some way to lose 20 of them. you were one of the casualties this year. Speaking of those, I should get back to them.

I don't think I'm 96 wins high on them, but considering how badly they underperformed their pyth, and the general up and down-ness of the season, I'm confident that they can easily win 90-92.

[Lane]

Also, I'd LOVE to have a real CF, but there's only like 3 in the whole BBA, so

I think I have 3 of them. Any interest in Young or Sandcastle?

Now I'm curious about your definition of a "real CF"

Kazansky is a better defensive CF than both Young and Sandcastle, and they're only marginally better hitters.

[agrudez]

Now I'm curious about your definition of a "real CF"

Kazansky is a better defensive CF than both Young and Sandcastle, and they're only marginally better hitters.

This comment made me go check and it's the first time I've noticed that Sandcastle lumped some defensive ratings - that sucks, and disqualifies him. For Young, he's only seen limited action in CF (probably not enough to get to his max positional rating there, in my estimation), but has availed himself better than Kazansky in a SSS. In 546 games in the majors at CF, Kazansky has a -34.5 ZR (-0.06319 ZR/G) while Young, in 36 games in the majors at CF, has a -0.8 ZR (-0.0222 ZR/G). On one hand, you have a player that consistently has proven to be incapable of playing CF defense in the majors. On the other hand, you have a player that, in a SSS, has been 1/3rd as inept as him at it thus far. Maybe Young does as bad as Kazansky over a full season, but it's difficult to imagine him doing worse.

Either way, Hoguin to DH would boost the OF defense on its own merits.

[7teen]

I'm not this high on your team, but I can see it happening. The biggest problem I always have is when I add up the projected win totals for all the teams in the previews I write, I always have to find some way to lose 20 of them. you were one of the casualties this year. Speaking of those, I should get back to them.

So previews of the FL done have us at:

LB 97 wins
SF 95 wins
Madison 87
Des Moines 82

I assume we can say YS and Cali will be in the 90s. Hawaii had a preview but no prediction. So who are the BAD teams in the Frick? Are Edmonton and Boise getting beat up on? Is the Frontier division bad? Are we all just being nice to one another?

[Ted]

I'm not this high on your team, but I can see it happening. The biggest problem I always have is when I add up the projected win totals for all the teams in the previews I write, I always have to find some way to lose 20 of them. you were one of the casualties this year. Speaking of those, I should get back to them.

So previews of the FL done have us at:

LB 97 wins
SF 95 wins
Madison 87
Des Moines 82

I assume we can say YS and Cali will be in the 90s. Hawaii had a preview but no prediction. So who are the BAD teams in the Frick? Are Edmonton and Boise getting beat up on? Is the Frontier division bad? Are we all just being nice to one another?

I think the part about being nice to each other is key. This is why I'm always subtracting whens when I preview the entire league. These totals are higher than I have for every team. Some by only one or two wins, some by more. I'm probably being overly pessimistic on Long Beach in mine, but I can't have three teams in every division projected for 90 wins.

[Lane]

Now I'm curious about your definition of a "real CF"

Kazansky is a better defensive CF than both Young and Sandcastle, and they're only marginally better hitters.

This comment made me go check and it's the first time I've noticed that Sandcastle lumped some defensive ratings - that sucks, and disqualifies him. For Young, he's only seen limited action in CF (probably not enough to get to his max positional rating there, in my estimation), but has availed himself better than Kazansky in a SSS. In 546 games in the majors at CF, Kazansky has a -34.5 ZR (-0.06319 ZR/G) while Young, in 36 games in the majors at CF, has a -0.8 ZR (-0.0222 ZR/G). On one hand, you have a player that consistently has proven to be incapable of playing CF defense in the majors. On the other hand, you have a player that, in a SSS, has been 1/3rd as inept as him at it thus far. Maybe Young does as bad as Kazansky over a full season, but it's difficult to imagine him doing worse.

Either way, Hoguin to DH would boost the OF defense on its own merits.

A fair assessment. Going on raw OF ratings, they're pretty similar.

Gotta agree that getting Holguin out would help, though he was only -1.5 ZR in 115 games last year. And my pitching is still primarily GB guys, so it's a little less important. Overall though, yes my defense is weak. Probably why Ted is so down on them this year.