Will the Aviators Take-off in 2037?

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RonCo
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Will the Aviators Take-off in 2037?

Post by RonCo » Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:02 pm

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Wichita won 67 games in their inaugural season of 2035 then 75 in their next, a number that put them in a tie for third in the Johnson Sunbelt division—effectively avoiding the sophomore jinx. That sounds good on the front of it, but a look at some numbers makes anyone of a studious nature ponder the meaning of life. The Aviator offense was tepid, creating only 755 runs (barely enough to keep them out of the bottom third of the league), and their pitching and defense was porous in allowing 861 runs, worse than only Phoenix and Charm City.

Still, Genius is Genius, so there’s that.

At the time of this writing, they’ve lost infielder Don Draper to Des Moines, journeyman reliever Ken Hall to the Jimmies, and outfielder Ken Jenkins to a horrible injury while adding 3B Lew Driscoll, LF Ramiro Marino, shortstop Adam Johnson, and pitchers Vicente Acevado and Juan Martinez.

So, what does it mean?

SUSPECT PITCHING: SURPRISE ATTACKS OR CRASH AND BURN?

On the hill the team still appears to be a mess. Last year’s top winner was 30-year-old Gonzalo Fajardo, who threw from the bullpen. Acevedo and Martinez will undoubtedly be in the rotation, but we’re not sure that’s a good thing.

From there you could kind of do a lottery pick’em.

Our guess is that knuckle-baller Abe Colbert, Jr. will be one of the rest, if nothing else to draw fans who like to watch catchers run to the back stop and hitters tie themselves into knots as they whack away. Next, we’re guessing 24-year-old Dan “The Carp” West (6-5, 3.90) may get a call. Despite his nickname, he doesn’t totally suck, and was almost kind of effective last year. You’ve got to figure 27-year-old Martin Torres (8-5, 3.53) will be in the mix, too, even though he threw from the pen last year. If either veteran Marcos Villegas or prospect Lane Aldridge shows moxie, you could see Colbert go back to the bullpen.

Still, to be honest, there’s a lot of fog here, so we admit we’re flying on instruments when we look at the roster. A lot of this speculation could be just that. Who knows what surprise Stu has up his rum-soaked sleeves.

That said, while this isn’t a gang that’s going to make anyone stand up and go “wow,” it’s a collection that could over-perform on the whole. The combination of West and Torres could well be the answer to the question of how the Aviators managed a third-place finish last year. If Acevedo and Martinez manage to merely stop the bleeding from their two spots in the rotation, this could wind up being a serviceable collection.

BULLPEN NOT MUCH CLEARER

Getting into the later innings, you’ll see 20-year-old lefty Pavel Bure, Jr.as often as his arm will let him. Despite a tough-looking ERA, Bure’s FIP was as solid as ever, which says he should bounce back just fine. 27-year-old Robby O’Bryan has proven he can throw the speedball right by ‘em as well as right around ‘em. The Aviator bosses are certainly wondering if this is the year 25-year-old Armando Rasquilha manages to break out.

Aldo Hes is interesting. As is Astika Ramadhin.

That’s the problem, though. There’s a lot of interesting guys here, but very few that the team can point to and say “that’s the guy.” So we’re projecting a streaky bullpen that will be lights-out one night and perform crash landings the next.

TOOLS OF IGNORANCE A DOGFIGHT

Look, we see Paul Scholes name on the roster, but we don’t believe it. The guys was clearly a Top Gun at one time, but he’s a coach now, pure and simple.

The real discussion is between 28-year-old Marcus Forryan and 23-year-old Anibal Garcia. Forryan is a bit of an on-base machine and can handle defensive duties. Garcia is a better handle of the staff, but hasn’t proven his minor league numbers will translate at the plate. One is tempted to guess the Aviator command would like to see Garcia take the helm.

Regardless, both appear to be like those boxy little transport planes rather than hopped-up fighters. Competent enough, but not exactly sexy.

It will be an interesting battle to watch in the spring.

INFIELD SQUADRON, REPORT!

We’ve made no bones of the fact that we like Lew Driscoll at third base. The guy’s a rare-bird, a lefty hitter who can hit lefties. Sure, he’s going to hit choppy air in the field, but screw it. We figure he’ll push 22-year-old Carlos Guerrero into a partial platoon, defensive replacement, and utility role. Guerrero had a rugged debut at the end of last year, but he looks like he should be able to play.

By the end of the year, Alex Ramirez is going to be the Wichita shortstop, and when that actually happens, he’ll be the Wichita shortstop for a very long time. There still exists a question of whether he’ll be the shortstop on opening day, however, as he’s 21 and he still has a little growing to do—which means Genius can legitimately manage his service time if he wants to. Beyond that, Ismael Pena didn’t completely embarrass himself in the role last year, and defensive star Adam Johnson (who will mostly playa utility role) could fill in for awhile. We’ll see what happens in the spring. If Ramirez is ready, this lifts the overall feel of this gang.

Second base will fall to George “Sparky” Anderson, who resembles a slug in the field, but who gets on base at a .400 clip. At 28, he’s likely a placeholder (though, really, how much further can he slip in the field? The guy made “highlight” fields by diving on a grounder up the middle before he even too a step—there’s a reason he’s a fan favorite). Look for Johnson or Guerrero to be his back-up in the late innings.

The first sack will be manned by a quorum of pilots (how’s that for a sentence, eh?). LHB Ed Curry (the vet) and Juan Perez (the kid) will likely platoon in the field and at DH with RHB Scott Hoover (the kid) and Brian “Ole Big Head” Clough (the future HoFer). It’s a set of guys that, once again, no one is going to point to when they are asked to show someone a top-end group, but that should wind up just being steady and good. At question is how many roster slots they can hold open for a double platoon like this.

Overall, we think this infield is pretty good. It’s filled with the kind of players we love, players who seem to be in the mid-range of their fields, but who are really in the upper third.

OUTFIELD SQUADRON FORMING-UP!

Look for center fielder Pedro Martinez (22) to build off a solid debut season. The kid struggled in the field, but insiders say he can really pick it. He could use a RHB to platoon with, which is missing from the roster, but such is life in the BBA. Ramiro Marino struggled in Seattle, but he’s back under the Genius’s wing, and should be a solid addition as he takes missing man spot left by the departure of Ken Jenkins. We’ll probably see Chet Gabriel back in right field, though 23-year-old Jose Ramirez will give him a run for his seat. Gabriel is a professional hitter who can play with the glove, the later part being the separator.

We like Alvin Dickinson as one of the utility outfielders. He can handle all roles out there, and hit a little from the left side. Ramirez or Bob Hernandez could be the fifth.

Overall, the Aviator outfield is a lot like the rest of the team, bit overwhelming when you look at any of them, but silently scary when you put them all together.

FINAL FLIGHT READINESS REPORT

The bottom line is most intelligence analysts in the BBA stats room are finding it hard to predict what’s in store for the Aviators in 2037. The general consensus is that the offense will be a bit better than it was in 2036, a season that never really recovered from the hole Jenkins’s injury left. On the whole it’s a youngish team. Several of its players can be expected to grow, and if everything works out you could see Aviator bats going on strafing runs against opposing pitchers.

So a lot depends on the pitching. Can the Genius patch holes there? Can these arms shut down opposing hitters well enough to edge out a few more wins than the team managed last year? The guess is that the numbers should bounce back at least a bit.

There’s also the fact that Wichita plays in a division where teams are getting better. Mexico City is stacked with quality, and Vegas is always tough. Phoenix just added the part everyone thinks they needed, and San Antonio has been on a spending splurge the likes we haven’t seen since Kim Kardashian got lost in that shoe store.

Then add in the fact is that the Aviator organization is not deep right now. One tough patch on the trainer’s table and the team could do into a deep stall.

So, yes, the call on this team is tough. But the analytical gears have turned and the stat-heads have conferred and the bones have been thrown. The smoke has turned from gray to white…or is it white to gray? Whatever.

It says here that Wichita is more entertaining in 2038, but they wind up regressing.

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Re: Will the Aviators Take-off in 2037?

Post by felipe » Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:37 pm

We’re gunning for .500

If it takes smoke and mirrors, than that’s what we will do

Smoke some crack and snort off of mirrors...

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Re: Will the Aviators Take-off in 2037?

Post by Lane » Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:10 pm

felipe wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:37 pm
We’re gunning for .500

If it takes smoke and mirrors, than that’s what we will do

Smoke some crack and snort off of mirrors...
I was gonna say that you'll owe me a licensing fee for using smoke and mirrors, but I see that you'll be using a slightly different method than I do. :crazylaugh: :hi5:
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