It’s hard to believe this team is only three seasons past the point where it was a legitimate contender for a Landis. I suppose it would be just easiest to say that San Antonio’s seasons have all just been left in the trainer’s room and be done with it.
The question today though is what’s up with the 2035 Outlaws.
THE ROTATION:
The answer might well depend, as usual, on John Wick (7/8/9 Ratings)—a fact that may or may not make a lot of folks in San Antonio particularly happy. I mean, I think Wick is as popular in Texas as he’s ever been, and before he got hurt the first time he was blazingly good. But he’s only thrown 91 innings in the past two seasons, and some segment of the fanbase has got to be wondering just how long his body is going to last this time. The good news here is that the last problem was a back issue, not arm problem. So, yeah. He’s back, and if he’s actually stronger for the rest then life will be pretty good. Wick is only 25, after all. The body does amazing things are that age.
More good news is that 26-year-old Elliot Buckland (8/7/8 Ratings) pitched pretty well last season despite a middling ERA. His FIP- was 83, certainly good enough for #2 territory.
We expect team insiders would love to see the two 23 year-olds (lefty Angelo Delgado (8/5/6 Ratings) and righty Mei-shan Hgui) step up and be real pitchers. Delgado has thrown positive numbers in the past, so it’s not purely wishful thinking in his part—though he had a major regression last year. Hgui is more of a pure roll of the dice. Veteran left-hander Alberto Sanchez (6/6/7 Ratings) was signed to eat some innings and provide some depth. This is necessary because, unless the staff is going to dip into the bullpen corps, it’s a steep drop to the next guy up.
GRADE: B with a side of banana peel.
BULLPEN:
Closer Dylan Young has put up great numbers in the past, and other than his birth certificate revealing he’s now 33 there’s nothing to say he can’t do it again. Joining him are a few guys who can get folks out, including aged vet Sebastian Durand, who we figure was brought in specifically because every pen needs a guy who can keep it in the ballpark. Other than Roberto Cruz (9/7/5 Ratings), Durand is the best this collection has at that particular skill.
Which could be the problem for this staff in the end. The Sun Belt division is the home of the most homer-happy ballparks in the entire BBA universe, and while we’re no slave to movement, a scan down the list of Outlaw pitchers is enough to cause even some of these guys’ mothers to take a pause. This team will depend a lot on guys like Eric Holiday (who has had some success in the league), and youngsters Tai hoi Li (8/6/5 Ratings) and Roberto Lizardo (10/6/6 Ratings) (who are going to be in their inaugural season.
At least we’ll know the actual size of their inaugural crowds … totally a baseball comment there. [grin]
Regardless, the other issue we see here in a quick scan is that there are no lefties to be seen unless you go down to AAA for Angel Guerrero (8/6/4 Ratings), who should probably be up. A silver lining exists in that the team’s got a mid-M70M’s payroll and a $110M top end budget, so there’s enough there that GM Mike Calvaruso—who is known for his ability to find major league talent on the cheap—has resources available to fill any hole he might find.
GRADE: There’s enough here to work with, but as it stands I’m not sure it can overcome the division’s ballparks and it’s lack of port-siders. Let’s call it a C.
CATCHER:
At 27, Antonio Tobias (6/6/8/7/8 Ratings) should be at his peak, and to prove he is, he dropped a career high 3.6 WAR last season. He’s notorious for struggles with the glove, but he posted a career high 29 homers and drove him 84 runs on a team where not a lot of guys got on base.
GRADE: B+ Lack of defense leaves him short of elite, but he’s not far off.
INFIELD:
The Outlaws added veteran left-handed bat Dan Leonard (7/5/3/6/9 Ratings) to the mix on a 1-season deal, so fans can look forward to a solid season there as “Love Machine” moves from a pitcher’s division to a hitter’s haven. That’s a plus. The future may be minor leaguer Andy Seekins (7/8/8/5/5 Ratings), but that future is a ways off. Felix Membiela (7/7/5/4/7 Ratings) has been manning second for a couple seasons and appears to be ready to handle it again. To give an idea of how that’s likely to turn out, just note that Membiela has registered a total of .3 WAR in his 2+ seasons. This spot needs an upgrade.
George Bluth (5/5/2/6/6 Ratings) will be handling the shortstop duties, and that’s turned out to be a pretty good thing. At 26 years old, Bluth is still in his prime, and has improved each of his three seasons culminating in a 2.6 WAR 2035. His bat will never thrill, but he’s a Zimmer Diamond glove candidate and a one-man circus in the field. Dan Norman (5/6/9/7/4 Ratings) returns for his final pre-arbitration season. At 23, he’s coming into his own. Bluth and Norman might be exhibit A and B for holding kids down a season or two. Sure, they were probably needed when they came up (and Bluth was a bit advanced in age), but both were sub-replacement for two seasons before “bursting” on the scene.
Juan Fernandez (8/7/3/5/10 Ratings) is back, too. He’ll DH and play a little first. He’s 34 and hasn’t posted a 2 WAR season since 2029. Mostly he doesn’t strike out. The fans love him, though, and someone’s got to be able to buy the beer, right?
Regardless, Bluth and Norman are solid pros and with Leonard will make the infield average or above. If Membiela does anything, that will help. We’re not betting on that, though.
GRADE: B-
OUTFIELD:
Miguel Gil (6/5/6/4/7 Ratings) will almost certainly anchor the defense, and as center fielders go he’s a good one with the glove. His +8.3 ZR was his best since he won the Zimmer back in 2030, though he played only 101 games. The problem, of course, is that Gil struggles to hit, especially RHP. When he gets on, he can steal a base (28-34 last year).
Mark White (7/7/8/6/6 Ratings), a 20 year old prospect acquired from Rockville last season, looks like he’s about ready, and given the options available, will likely start in right field with the parent club in 2035. See warnings about Norman and Bluth above, though. We’ll watch how long that lasts. White is going to be a good one, though. The only question is “when?”
Paul Warren (8/7/2/4/9 Ratings) will be in left most of the time. He’s been a bit injury prone, but he’s productive when he plays, which he did 100 times last year. At 24, his body should be able to handle recovery. Defensively he’s solid…team coaches would probably like to see him become more selective, though. He walked only 23 times in 405 plate appearances.
Look for 22-year-old Nathan Naylor (6/7/7/6/6 Ratings) to platoon pair with either or both White and Warren. He had a solid season in AAA last year, and looks ready to h it RHP. He can run a little, and his defense will not be horrific. Still, he’s a kid.
Add in George Claussen (6/6/7/6/6 Ratings), a 23 year old looks solid but who’s also been up for parts of three seasons and never really shown he’s ready.
GRADE: I don’t know. Seriously, how do you grade an outfield consisting of a classic all field CF and a group of guys who have only been legal to drink for a few years between them? They pass the eye test, you know? They got the Green Bar Syndrome down pat. Sure, you’d like a little blue in there, and you’d like another left-handed bat in the mix. Let’s call it a C+/B-. You pick it.
OVERALL:
The new Sun Belt is a tough division to call. As noted, the club has some grub to play with, so that’s good. They have to beat Las Vegas, which is going to be hard. When you look at the wild card, you see Mexico City, Phoenix, and Wichita in the mix. They should beat Wichita fairly handily. And there’s a fair part of the probability field surrounding this team that says they’ll beat Phoenix often enough and Mexico City on a fair enough occasion. SO, sure, it could happen. John Wick (7/8/9 Ratings) stays healthy and Buckland throws that 83 FIP- and you’ve got something going. All those 23-somethings take a step forward, and, sure, the magic mirror could say Wildcard.
Let’s not bet the ranch, though.
While the Outlaws are as due for a turn of luck as anyone other than maybe Des Moines of Valencia, the world doesn’t usually work that way. There will be failures, and there will be breakages. The Outlaws just don’t have the depth to deal with it.
As far as predictions go (that’s what we do here, right—predict the future so folks can come back and make fun of us later?) let’s say San Antonio will win a few more games in 2035 than they did in 2034. Not many. Let’s say six. That means the club goes 78-84.
Sure, sounds about right to me.
Of course that's based on the team staying pat through the season, and it's not Calvaruso's MO to be afraid to find a few guys to fill holes. So, yeah, there's a chance I'm wrong. THere's a chance this club could sneak into the playoffs. Not a big one, but it's also not zero. Add a couple names in the season and we'll see what happens.
