Let’s talk about the Aztecs, shall we? At this point last season, Mexico City was everybody’s darling—a chic pick for the Heartland Division, even. Kinda one of the cool kids. The wave of youth was rising up, and Juan Pablo was going to bring his veteran wiles to the table. The Aztecs were going places.
At least that’s what the press in Mexico City said. Elsewhere the team was seen as a .500 kind of club. A team on the rise, yes, but not one to take seriously in 2034.
The point here is that nobody saw the depths of their eventual crash and burn into the depths of a 70-92 season that had some suggesting that maybe the Heartland wasn’t the best division in baseball after all.
This, however, is baseball, and baseball is about hope. The fact of the matter is that fans in Mexico City have a lot to hope for (not the least is that rain doesn’t shut down half their games).
THE ROTATION
On paper the Aztec rotation looks pretty attractive. But, then, they still print menus on paper sometimes, and the food rarely looks as good on the plate as it does in person.
24-year-old Scotty Pendleton (10/6/7 Ratings) is the team’s ace, but Denis Pham (9/8/7 Ratings, also 24) is apparently ready to take over the throne. Stop me when you’ve heard this before. But, yes, this year it could be true. Pham has been the focus of many a Hot Stove league argument, but his 1-10 record last season didn’t do a lot to enamor fans. We’ll likely see 22-year-old Pedro Rocha (9/6/7 Ratings) take the #3 slot if he looks ready in spring training. He’s done everything he can, but like Pham his numbers in the BBA make a grown man cry.
Depending ono how these guys sort out, veteran Felipe Baez (9/6/8 Ratings) will be either the ace, or anywhere from #2-#4. If he’s the Ace, look for Mexico City to take another thumping—not because Baez can’t be an elite level BBA pitcher—he can. He won 18 games last year, and posted a solid 3.39 ERA (in an admittedly pitching-favorable ballpark). But he’ll only be the ace if those other three collapse.
There are more than a few candidates for the #5 slot, and a lot of spring training time in front of us for things to settle out, but right now our money for the #5 slot is 22-year-old Julio Silva (7/7/8 Ratings), who has not been particularly stellar in his BBA time, but, you know…22. It Gets Better.
GRADE: You tell us. It could be and A+. It could be a C. We’re talking a bunch of kids who are less than 25. Let’s call it a B and be done with it.
THE BULLPEN:
Gerard Wagner (22, 10/6/8 Ratings) is probably your closer—unless he starts games, in which case it’s probably 21-year-old Pedro Castillo (10/7/6 Ratings), who saved 30 games for the AAA Los Cabos Corsairs. If it’s not one of those two guys, all bets are off.
After that what you’ve got are a whole bunch of fairly talented young arms. Remember that wave of youth I talked about before? Meet the kiddie-korps relief tsunami. Sure, we’ve got Gilberto Longoria (9/6/6 Ratings) and Anastasio Lopez (7/6/9 Ratings) at you grizzled 28 years of age, but after that you look at William Dawson (7/6/7 Ratings), James Heath (7/6/8 Ratings), Cisco Salinas (7/6/6 Ratings), Simon Bamber (9/6/6 Ratings), Jose Romero (8/7/4 Ratings), and Jose Rodriguez (9/5/6 Ratings)—each of which are 24 or younger, and each of which has been up to the bigs for a bit, and none of whom have lived up to their press. Add in Carlos Maestas (9/6/7 Ratings) and another five or six guys at AAA and who knows what’s coming?
GRADE: Should be an A, but kids are kids. We’ll call them a B for their development zone, meaning they’ll probably start the year as a C and then grow into that B…unless you grade on a curve, which in the JLSB is possible.
CATCHER:
Unless the team makes a move soon, it looks like Enrique Nunez (6/7/6/4/7 Ratings) (26) and Jeffery Warren (33, 7/6/3/4/9 Ratings) will split duties behind the plate again. Neither one can really play defense with any great aplomb, and both are basically kind of league average at the plate.
GRADE: C (Assume 1 WAR split between the pair)
INFIELD:
The infield may be the Aztec’s Achilles heel.
Brett Compton (8/8/6/4/8 Ratings) is a pretty good shortstop, despite an erratic tendency to break out in floods of errors every now and again. He’s got that age thing going for him, so he should be on the upswing. Pencil him in for 3 WAR or a little more and let it fly.
Joey Ride (7/4/4/3/8 Ratings) will probably start the season at second base, but most give even odds that 21-year-old Jerome Delange (8/8/8/6/7 Talents) will end up there. Assuming it’s Ride, the native of Bristow, Oklahoma would be the veteran of the group at age 24. Truth is the Aztecs are probably tempted to start Delange in the bigs this year. The kid could handle the defensive assignment, but it seems clear his bat could use at least a half-season in AAA. We’ll see how hard the Aztecs roll the development dice, though.
Mike Ellis (9/8/5/4/10 Ratings), at 21, is a prototypical slap hitter. Good enough to play every day on the whole, but whose lack of plate discipline makes him unlikely to break a .350 OBP. His lack of power will make that a problem in the process of getting the team over the plateau that would make the club a real playoff contender.
At third we’ll see either 21-year-old Jose Rivera (7/7/7/4/7 Ratings) or fellow 21-year-old Neil Brickell (6/5/6/3/7 Ratings). Both should be adequate defenders. Neither has yet to take on big league pitching.
What this says to me is that the team will likely be defensively average and offensively below. All of these guys can put the bat on the ball, none of them can take a walk. Ride is speedy enough, but the rest just kind of clog the bases.
GRADE: C. But a young C.
OUTFIELD:
Now you’re talking.
At 23, Willard Gagne (7/8/7/6/8 Ratings) is among the best centerfielders in the game. He’s a classic 5-tooler, and as such hit 25 homers and stole 37 bases while covering center field well enough to drop 3.4 WAR on the league in 2034—a value that resulted in his first All-Star team. The future looks just as bright.
At the corners you’ll get Jose Estrada (8/6/9/3/9 Ratings) and Chang-hyeok Chang (9/8/4/4/9 Ratings). Estrada can hit ‘em often and hit ‘em far (28 homers in 116 games). At 26 years old, he still almost decrepit relative to his teammates, but is clearly not in need of a walker to play the field. Chang is essentially a right handed version of Estrada without the power. Again, neither can take a walk, leading one to assume that the Aztecs may lead the league in BIP.
Mixing in here will be newly-acquired rookie Augie Plascencia (9/7/5/6/10 Ratings), the subject of a fairly heated bidding war when Boise took him in the Rule 5 draft. Plascencia’s biggest benefit may be that he’s a true switch hitter and that he might actually walk more than 50 times in a season. Time will tell, of course.
Armando Castaneda (7/6/2/6/9 Ratings) is a nice guy to have around to back things up. And Roy Linn and Rhett Lawson (6/6/4/5/8 Ratings) are solid enough backups in CF. Pedro Canales (6/5/8/7/8 Ratings), who signed a minor league deal fresh from Atlantic City, might make an appearance or three.
GRADE: It’s a solid unit that should continue to get better as the season unfolds. Let’s consider it an A-.
OVERALL:
The Aztec’s $65M payroll and $90M budget leaves them a little room for making moves, though probably less than Fred Holmes would like. Given the team’s age and salary structure, they may well be on cruise control for a couple seasons, and may be planning to use that gap in various ways that make sense as injuries progress.
All in all, the team will contend for the Johnson League Sun Belt title, though in reality that might not be saying much. Las Vegas will, of course, be a pundit fave for taking that crown, and Phoenix is another one of those teams who seems like they should do well. San Antonio is struggling, though, and while Wichita looks like they’ve compiled an interesting group we just can’t see them being strong for 162 games.
Final Projection?
Let’s say 86-76, second in the division. They’ll also sign a movie deal for the rights to broadcast their youthful escapades on road trips around the continent. It’s likely to be one of those seasons big leaguers look back on and say “Christ, but that was fun!”
