2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

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Ted
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2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by Ted » Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:38 pm

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Havana Sugar Kings

Looking back at 2032
Thanks in large part to a weak division (and in some sense, league in general. More on that in a moment.), the Havana Sugar Kings finished 3rd in the Johnson League Southern last year. Unlike third place in every other division in baseball, this did not mean they were a playoff contender. Their 75 wins were actually only the 4th highest total the Sugar Kings have compiled in their 8 year history. (Their 72-90 record is only their fifth best since moving to Havana). A third place finish has to be taken in context of an injury ravaged New Orleans (89 losses), some re-builders in Hawaii and Carolina/Rockville (91 and 93 losses), a floundering Huntsville (89 losses), a young but not quite ready Phoenix (96 losses), and the dumpster fire that is Halifax/Nashville (103 losses). So how good is Havana really? It's a bit unclear. 2032 represented a nine win improvement over the prior year's club. It was also Randy Weigand's first year at the helm. On the other hand, this team won 76 games in 2031, and the 2032 performance is still quite poor overall, well within the normal range of futility for this team.



Stats at a glance
Record: 75-87, 3rd Johnson League Southern
Runs Scored: 784 (4.8 per game - 8th)
Runs Allowed: 885 (5.5 per game -12th)
Payroll: 46,678,118 (12th)
Attendance: 1,731,944 (12th)

Notable Players Added: SP Jody Nunez (trade - HAW), SP Ernie Kinney (trade - CAL), P Manuel Pena (trade - CAL), SS Luis Gonzales (trade - HFX/NSH), SS Juan Arevalo (free agent), SS Fernando Martinez (trade CGY), RF Robert Gowron (trade - San Antonio)

Notable Players Lost: SP Fernando Alaniz (released), SP Noonien Soong (trade CGY), SP Edward Mtume (trade IND/OMA), SP Chris Brown (trade MON), SP Irving Espinoza (free agency), SP Mei-shan Ngui (trade SAN), SP Charlie Iron-Knife (trade HAW), SP Lee Morgan (trade HAW), RP Rien van der Heyden (trade CAL), RP Martin Torres (trade HFX/NSH), RP Paul Farrell (trade CGY), SS Juan Rodriguez (trade IND/OMA), SS Jesus Flores (trade CAL), CF Miguel Gil (trade - SAN), RF Jesus Rojas (trade IND/OMA)



Offseason Recap
Havana had a respectable, if only somewhat above average offense. Weigand did take over a team with some redundant parts, and through a number of trades of high profile players that rivals the rest of the league output, he solved many of those problem. More importantly, he addressed the team's glaring weakness from last year, a pitching staff that allowed 885 runs. Out are Fernando Alaniz, Noonien Soong, Chris Brown, Paul Farrell, and Irving Espinosa. Taking their place are Jody Nunez, Ernie Kinney, and Manuel Pena. While not equal on a body for body basis, that's a large number of pitchers who were less than effective last year leaving with the three replacing them all coming off good seasons. They also gave up a lot of future talent to make these moves. In essence, Weigand has put his stamp on this franchise, as well as definitely opened a window of competitiveness, starting in 2033.

Starting Pitching
This group looks to be a good deal better this year, but that is not hard to do. Jody Nunez will be the de facto ace of this rotation. The thirty-one year old comes over from Hawaii having established a track record as a guy who will give you just under 200 innings, strikes out a ton, and doesn't walk too many. What keeps him from being a true ace is that he gives up the long ball just a tad more that one would like. Still, he's a massive improvement over anyone the club had in the rotation last year. He'll likely be followed by Jon Reed. Reed has out of this world stuff, and can throw it all day long. He'll need to, because many of his outings will be extended by his inability to get efficient outs His 6.3 BB/9 leaves a lot to be desired. Still, he's a 9-10 K/9 guy. He's probably just miscast as a front of the rotation arm. The next guy expected to do a little too much is lefty Ernie Kinney, acquired from California. Kinney is a nice looking young lefty, who had an outstanding half season debut last year. He also has a ton of plus pitches, not quite the arsenal that Reed has, but his ball moves a lot better and goes where it should more often. He's a solid mid rotation type. Feliciano Rafeal and Manuel Pena look like the last two in the rotation. Rafael could someday be the second best arm in this rotation as currently constructed after Nunez, but hill have to prove he doesn't give up the home run too much. Pena is a knuckleballer who pitched quite well out of the 'pen for California last year, but was up and down as a starter the year before. All in all, not bad for your four and five guys. Weigand has indicated it's not his plan, but I would be the first person on the "Start Ferguson Gibson" bandwagon. A one time top prospect who had some major injuries, Gibson's career has been stuck on the launchpad for years. He finally seems to have recovered somewhat, a maybe just needs a chance to get going. Another option could be rookie Wu-han Liu, but he doesn't look quite ready yet. Adequate is the best group you could use to describe this group. There are enough options to cobble something together, but at best this will be an average rotation. Another top arm and the subsequent shifting backward of the remaining talent would go a long way towards solidifying this group. As it stands, this is not the starting rotation of a contender.

The Pen
Some of these potential starters won't start. Guys like Dan Estrada, the above mentioned Gibby and Liu all will get a little bit of a stuff boost out of the bullpen. Otherwise, this is a pretty desolate collection of arms that looks like one of the worst relief corps in the league at the moment.

Position Players
C Jose Gamboa is a solid young left handed catcher in his prime. He hits for a little average, a little power, and takes a few more walks than most. When you combine those features, you end up with a nice player. He's also quite good behind the plate. Shoin Tanaka is a rather good backup/platoon mate.

1B Albert Gaona is another nice 25 year old player. He has legitimate power to all fields, and again like Gamboa, no real weaknesses. He seems to occasionally struggled with contact against righties, but his power more than makes up for that.

2B Luis Gonazales looks to be the starting second baseman of the future for the Sugar Kings, and his glove probably plays better there than at short. He's a bona-fide top of the lineup guy, and has the wheels to turn lots of singles into doubles. His manager will have to reign him in on the base paths, as he is not the best decision maker.

3B This is the only real position of potential weakness in this lineup. Jeffrey Cunningham has been good the last couple years as part of a platoon, but it remains to be seen if he can handle full time duties as an every day player.

SS It looks like the flurry of recent trades will move Reece Wareham back to short, where he has a very good (if not elite) glove and a bat that many teams wouldn't mind at first. The only real concern about him is his ability to stay on the field.

LF Sheldon Cooper looks to reprise his role from last year, and is another nice OBP guy for this lineup. He has a good glove in left, and is the only real base stealer we have yet mentioned on this club.

CF The second guy on this team who could swipe a few bags is Abdelwahab Kamade. Kamade's real skills is his award caliber defense in center. He also brings a decent contact and gap power bat, which in today's weak center field market is a huge plus.

RF Captain Joyride looks to be the last regular outfielder on this team. He's another OBP, gap power guy with a good glove.

DH For now the DH spot is taken by Tai Hoi Wei, who Weigand has made no bones about his desire to trade. Wei has more upside than even Gaona, but has yet to fulfill it. Robert Gowron, acquired from San Antonio, will likely also see some time at DH and as a 4th OF, providing some pop.

This is a deep, complete offense, and would be one of the best in the league, if not for the ridiculous groups in Montreal, Jacksonville, and Las Vegas. The also defend quite well, and should score a tad more than last year's club.


2033 Outlook
To contend for the playoffs, this team will need to improve their run differential by one hundred runs. I think they may have done that. The offense, while largely the same as last year, is a year more mature, and better formed. They perhaps can give you a 20-30 run improvement. It's the pitching where this team made the most strides. While they still have a bottom half overall pitching staff, they aren't an embarrassment anymore. A couple key injuries could have them sniffing 900 runs allowed again, but it's also not hard to see this group only giving up 800 or so.

Prediction
Havana is by no means a world beater. They are still far behind the mighty Las Vegas Hustlers, and will have to contend with a rejuvenated New Orleans club. However, with San Antonio's injuries, I think this team can maintain their place in the standings, albeit with a better record. It's hard to know if that will be goo enough for a playoff spot, with the volatility in the JLA, but they will be in the hunt. Prediction 84-78, 3rd JLS
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Re: 2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:52 pm

Damn good write up. I'm a bit higher on my rotation than you are, I think we will end up in the 5-7 range in terms of runs allowed, especially when you include the fact that we have above average defense at every position (i think the lowest rating of any starter is an 8). I'm really looking forward to seeing what my offense can do.
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

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Re: 2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by Ted » Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:00 pm

I should have been most specific than "bottom half" pitching staff. I think you're among the best of the bottom half, or the bottom of the middle third, or whatever. I don't see you finishing better than Vegas, Rockville, New Orleans, San Antonio (even with the injuries), and Huntsville (if they don't trade). You're in a pack with Charm City, Montreal, Jacksonville, and maybe Hawaii. It's your pen that really drags you down to the bottom of that second group in my mind.

Part of what makes it hard is you would have a close to league worst staff in the Frick, which is my frame of reference. It's interesting how we've become the pitching dominated league and the Johnson has more of an offensive tilt.
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Re: 2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:05 pm

My pen is definitely not great, and weakened even more with trading Farrell to Calgary. I'm relying fairly heavily on failed starters (Estrada and Gibson Especially).
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

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Re: 2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by bpbrooksy » Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:23 pm

I think Nunez was a very strong pickup, and might wind up out-pitching that "de facto ace" description. He can beat just about anybody in the box, and has had proven, consistent success for five years now. His 2028 numbers are probably in the rearview, but I like him as a veteran leader for the staff.
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Re: 2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by bcslouck » Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:35 am

I think I'm a little more bearish on these guys though it could be a weak division outside of Vegas and New Orleans with all the injuries. Certainly possible for them to nab that last wildcard spot.
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Re: 2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:44 am

I think what will make or break my team is all of the kids i have in my rotation. 1 is a true rookie and 3 others have never been on an opening day roster. If their talent comes thru, I will be very good. If they need some time to develop, I might miss out.
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

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Re: 2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by bcslouck » Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:02 am

Well, going off experience with Behner, it seems like even the best pitching prospects need at least a season, but usually 2 seasons before it really clicks. At least in this league. There are clearly exceptions to that though.
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Re: 2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:18 am

I really think 2034 will be the start of true contention for me (I return my entire team and Nunez will be the only one over 30 outside of the pen), but I should be in the mix for that last WC spot this year.
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

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Re: 2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by bschr682 » Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:46 am

No offense but I'm going the other way on this. I do not like some of the things you have done and I think it will become apparent this season. Trading for Nunez is a horrific mistake in my opinion.
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Re: 2033 Havana Sugar Kings Preview

Post by usnspecialist » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:11 pm

Define "some of the things" (besides Nunez which you already named). In honestly curious and always looking for feedback.
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

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