2033 Preview: Edmonton Jackrabbits

[RonCo]

Let’s be blunt here, last season, Edmonton fans were subjected to some pretty horrific baseball. The club won 58 games, worst in the Frick League by a wide margin. And it came by that number honestly, its offense contributing a league worst 615 runs while it’s pitching staff allowed a league worst 890, that last being a whopping 58 runs worse than the next best team. Bottom line, the Jackrabbits were in the stew from the beginning of the season until the end.

The only good news here was that the team actually outperformed their expected wins by three—which is a double-bladed statement, because at the end of the day a team might be expected to regress to their mean, and because this suggests the team was actually worse than it appeared.

Yes.

Horror story, I know.

On the other hand, there weren’t a lot of people to see this thing unfold, either. The club drew 2.59M, worse than anyone except Omaha (who promptly threw up their arms and moved to Mexico City). That number continued a downward run that the franchise has seen since it originated in 2029 as an expansion franchise.

So, where’s the silver lining, eh? What’s the upside of this kind of ball? Are Edmonton fans going to sit in the cold confines of John Ducey to see this kind of team again, or is there light on the sim horizon. The answer to all these is probably “yes.” Here’s a look at the team, and why I say that.

THE ROTATION:

Three names to watch: Bobby Lynch (10/7/9 Talents) (21, 12/13/7 Talents), Maxime Manceau (7/8/7 Talents) (22, 6/7/8 Talents), and Johnny Morin (7/7/7 Talents) (22, 7/7/7 Talents). Of these three, only Morin has seen time in the bigs, and those few days have been spent as a relief guy. But there’s the front chunk of your rotation of the future. One suspects all three will see time this year, though how good they’ll be in 2033 is a tough call. Add in 25 year-old Taisuke Suzuki (8/7/6 Talents), who has struggled to perform to his ratings in the past but who is still a year out of arbitration, and you’ve got an interesting core. Ed Kenney (8/6/6 Talents) (8/7/7) will struggle a little at times, but the fact is that he’s never really pitched with a decent defense behind him, so who knows? He’s entering his arbitration years, though, so it’s probably time to fish or cut bait. If Kenney isn’t the guy, 30 year-old Richard van der Knaap (8/6/8) is probably the #5 again. Which might work. Or might not.

Let’s grade this thing out as a pretty ugly thing today, but with an arrow that’s pointing straight up for 2034 and beyond. And, if GM Brandon Brooks can put a defense behind them, they might surprise.

THE BULLPEN:

Here’s the thing, though. The relief core is just chock-full of guys with brilliant bits and big holes. Perhaps nowhere is this more obvious than veteran closer Alfredo Martinez (10/4/7 Talents), a guy whose results the past two seasons have been a 4.07 ERA and a 2.86 ERA. He throws 99 and carries a brilliant fastball/curve ball combination to go with a wrinkle screwball. Technically, he’s got the stamina to start, which he did back in the old EBA. The hole, though, is right there in his control. It’s hard to be really effective when you’re walking 4.5 batters per 9.

Go through the rest of the pen, and you find lots of guys like this.

Domingo Ayala (10/6/9 Talents) would be a star if he didn’t give up 2 homers/9. Brady Attoehow has been great at times, but he’s got the dose of the same affinity for homers as Ayala. Joseph Tuberville is the most well-rounded guy of the whole, and he’s coming off a great season where he posted a 1.74 ERA in 31 innings. If he can duplicate that in twice the load, perhaps the bullpen gets better. We’ll see.

We’ll grade this set out as your garden variety “C” kind of outfit, guys who look good on the outside, but just never seem to get over the hump.

CATCHERS:

Ouch. We’re not sure what this team is going to do in the catching shop. It has 26 year-old Miguel Valencia (5/4/8/6/7 Talents) in the slot now. Valencia can hit the ball out of the park every now and again, but otherwise he has no real skill of any merit, and he carries a tin plate on his hand when it comes to a glove. 23 year-old minor leaguer Juan De Los Santos will be an upgrade, but that’s not saying a lot. He’ll probably play whenever he’s ready, or earlier.

Overall Grade here is: Holy Shit Get Me Someone Else

THE INFIELD:

Here we see the depth of the problem. Yes, the team’s catching woes are serious, but they roll out into the infield, too, where 31 year old Mario Vera (5/4/4/6/6 Talents) was once a solid defender, but is on the decline, and where any idea of Mario Murillo (6/5/8/6/4 Talents) at shortstop (as he’s tagged) just makes pitchers weep, and where Luke Jordan (6/7/6/7/5 Talents) and 3B was once at least a reasonable idea, but who is also on the downward spiral with the glove. Let’s just say that ground balls who don’t make it through this infield are made fun of by all other baseballs.

At first base the team has four guys who can hit a little bit and field a little.

The backups are worse fielders than the starters, and in spring training have included using outfielder Rio Duce (7/7/4/2/10 Talents), who we admit has a spectacular name.

Add these guys up, and last year you got 3.4 WAR out of the infield as a whole. They are all a year older now, and that’s not a good thing. If the infield gets 3 WAR this year, it will be a Canadian miracle.

THE OUTFIELD:

The core of the future here sits in two kids: Declan Crauen (7/8/7/5/7 Talents) and Malcom Guesne. Guesne played CF a bit last year and at least posted nice enough +4 ZR, but is probably better in the corner. Crauen will most likely come straight from AA to make his debut, and looks like he should be able to carry his weight in RF. In the meantime, 26-year-old Felix Duarte (6/6/9/4/7 Talents) should bounce back from a horrendous year, and team captain Sergio Cordova (6/7/8/5/6 Talents) will so his best to do…well…whatever he can do, which is mostly just work hard to keep everyone jovial as the ship is sinking.

Center field looks like it should be manned by Alan Pichon, who is actually capable of playing the position, and minor leaguer Manuel Perez (5/5/3/5/5 Talents), who is probably even better in the field, but projects to be lost at the plate.

Overall, it’s not a horrific outfield, but it’s not one that looks to be thrilling fans this year.

Let’s grade it out as your standard C-List celebrity, a group you don’t mind seeing when they show up on the Colbert show, but not someone you’re going to make it a point to stay up late for.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT:

This is a team that has a small core of youth that’s coming to bear fruit, but without a lot of help, is going nowhere. It’s old and slow in the infield, and stagnant in the outfield. Its $42M payroll and $81M budget is the lowest in the league. At the time of this writing, the team has sold a grand total of $10M in season tickets…which is amazing either way you think about it.

On the other hand, we do love the young pitchers, and the outfield should turn better numbers than they did last year. If the front office gets a bit motivated, the club is, as the pilots of Top Gun would say, a target rich environment for improvement. The infield needs a total make-over, and it wouldn’t hurt to put a few reliable guys in the pen as an interim band aid, but at present we just don’t see it happening.

Let’s say: 60-102

[usnspecialist]

good preview, although i would like to point out one glaring error regarding the attendance figures from last year...

Edmonton: 2,593,422
Omaha/Mexico City: 2,244,662
Havana: 1,731,944

I would LOVE to have the edmonton attendance figures haha.

[RonCo]

That only matters if you care about the JL

[Spiccoli]

Holy hell... Don't hold anything back Ron.

[usnspecialist]

Holy hell... Don't hold anything back Ron.

i mean, can you blame him? This franchise is in brutal shape right now.

[bpbrooksy]

A solid assessment. The Edmonton organization is not in stunning shape, and the only bright spot is the future, as we still have the #1 farm system in baseball according to the game. A couple of those guys will be shuffled up as early as Opening Day after strong developmental time in the minor leagues. Still, a couple of unproven pitchers do not a turnaround make.

The Rabbits didn't make a single move this offseason -- a decision that no doubt made fans impatient and upset -- but there is a justification. With the current state of affairs, no free agents with any self-respect left were willing to talk with Edmonton, so I was left a bit hung out to dry in terms of filling out the roster with more proven talent. I certainly would have picked up a better catcher off the market if I could.

Regarding trades, I had no interest in dealing any prospects for vets who wouldn't be around when the team is good. As far as trading away current major-leaguers, I'd rather wait for an in-season market to develop than try to pawn off contracts with no leverage behind me whatsoever.

So, yes, we are indeed anticipating -- but not aiming for -- another last-place finish this season (though call-ups could wind up saving us from the absolute cellar again.) I will venture to say that if 2032 wasn't rock bottom, 2033 will certainly be the last year of sweeping futility, as our multi-year plan will be able to take much bigger strides now that I've had a full year with this club under my belt.

Thanks for a fun read!

[Ted]

You know, I forgot about the whole "players not willing to talk to a franchise thing" when I beat you up for not signing anyone in the podcast. Sorry about that.

[bpbrooksy]

You know, I forgot about the whole "players not willing to talk to a franchise thing" when I beat you up for not signing anyone in the podcast. Sorry about that.

Hey, no problem! I was certainly expecting those criticisms either way, and I think the franchise would get a low offseason grade regardless of why they stood pat. Mostly, I'm just happy someone cared to talk about the Jackrabbits for more than five seconds.

That surplus of free agency funds that went unused might go towards taking on a contract in a salary-dump-type trade if it could bring a prospect back to Edmonton. And some of it has been offered to a couple of players who have eased up a bit on their demands now that Opening Day is here.

[Lane]

You know, I forgot about the whole "players not willing to talk to a franchise thing" when I beat you up for not signing anyone in the podcast. Sorry about that.

Hey, no problem! I was certainly expecting those criticisms either way, and I think the franchise would get a low offseason grade regardless of why they stood pat. Mostly, I'm just happy someone cared to talk about the Jackrabbits for more than five seconds.

That surplus of free agency funds that went unused might go towards taking on a contract in a salary-dump-type trade if it could bring a prospect back to Edmonton. And some of it has been offered to a couple of players who have eased up a bit on their demands now that Opening Day is here.

For some FA, the problem is when your owner sets your team to "Rebuilding"

You can Ping:Commish and have Matt change it. Might help you sign some guys.

[RonCo]

If the young pitchers make a bigger impact their first year, the Jackrabbits could bump from 60 wins, IMHO. But I figure the real work for them points to 2034.

On the other hand, it's going to be necessary to win some games soonish in order to get the fans going.

Bottom Line here, Bradon's doing fine. But he's got a serious hole to dig out from.

[bschr682]

you need to completely sell out for plus plus plus defense. You will score even less runs than last year but you will get some nice performances from the young arms which should help both their development and morale.

[felipe]

Vancouver conveniently has a few they’d like to trade you