2032 - Johnson League Atlantic

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2032 - Johnson League Atlantic

Post by RonCo » Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:51 pm

Now, some guys, yens see, would have problems making prognostications about teams a couple weeks before spring training even starts. I mean, hell, there’s injuries still to come, and there’ the lightning strikes of spring flings, and unfathomable drops in surefire ability. For some guys, making these kinds of predictions brings up the heebejeebies and the shakes. But, Buddy, I ain’t one of those guys. What I mean by all that it that I got your Johnson Atlantic right here.

And, here’s the thing about the Johnson Atlantic: things are getting better. Last year, the damned thing stank to high heaven. Oh, sure, don’t give me that old high and mighty “The Hurricanes won the Landis” pile of bunk. The playoffs are a crapshoot, and the Atlantic has it’s chare of two-bit gamblers. The bottom line is that in Carolina and Halifax, the JLA fielded two of the least stout teams in baseball, and Atlantic City and Brooklyn weren’t too much better. One can make an argument that the depressed state of this division is the root cause of the Charm City Jimmies making the post-season. I mean, Dude, to compare, note that the Johnson South fielded six teams that were .500 or above.

Anyway, against that backdrop, you’ve got 2032 coming along, and the facts are the facts—the JLA is getting its act together. Slowly, but surely. It’s a collection of seven intriguing teams led by seven interesting general managers, all with plans, some splashy, others more barebones, and others just kind of flying under the radar screen. Regardless of the approach, the fact is that these seven teams are making their way to the table to duke it out this year, with future dominance of the weak sister division at stake.

Who’s going to win?

Well…let’s spin the wheel and see where it lands:

[hr]
Jacksonville

ImageJacksonville won the division last year, and carried on to take the Landis. Some guys would have taken a few weeks or months off to celebrate, but not the Hurricanes’ Tyler Simmons. Rather than rest on their laurels, his staff went out and signed shortstop Jorge Gonzales and pitcher Mario Mendez (8/7/9 Ratings) to buffer the sting of letting Len Caldwell (6/8/7 Ratings) and Sunshine Rodriguez walk to more lucrative fields. In addition, they return a very good team, anchored by a staff in which Mendez will join Billy Chappel, Jr., Tully Crow (9/7/9 Ratings), Jessie Howard, and Jesus Tonche (9/7/8 Ratings). It’s a strange rotation because it’s extremely good, but is probably being overlooked due to big splashes made by the upstart kid in Atlantic City. Ultimately, though, we think the Hurricane rotation is probably still better than Atlantic City’s but only because it goes to 11, whereas the Gamblers goes only to 10.

Look for the bullpen, which was already good, to get an infusion of young blood in the form of 22-year-old Thomas Crane (10/7/5 Ratings) and 20-year-old Netuno Markert (10/7/6 Ratings), both of whom came up for a stint late last year. They’ll fit in well with the collection of solid pros the Hurricanes already throw out there. It’s a good pen, supporting a top-ranked rotation. There’s a reason this was by far the best staff in the division last year.

Offensively the team can rake well enough and is mostly young. Only 33 year-old Sergio Ramos (6/6/9/4/4 Ratings) and the aforementioned 32-year-old Gonzalez are past the mysterious 29-year-old peak. Rutledge, Noboru, Braun, Hahn…the guys can hit. Their 879 runs was second in the division only to Montreal, and given the bats have has a year’s development in them, one suggests 900 runs this year isn’t out of the question.

Like any other team, Jacksonville could regress, but right now we don’t see it happening. If there’s a team poised for a bit of a run at the top of the division, we think it’s Jacksonville.

PREDICTION: 97-65
[hr]
Montreal

ImageProbably the biggest news from Montreal was the cheap extension the GM John Callahan got superstar shortstop Jared Gillstrom (10/7/8/6/7 Ratings) to sign. $13M is a lot of money, but it’s about $7M less than most observers would say Gillstrom is worth. The front office has also been busy otherwise, signing a series of low-profile players to cheap contracts and trading to add Van Willard (8/7/6 Ratings) to the rotation. Bottom line: the Blazers were 87 games good this year, they should be at least 87 games good again. Unless…

One of the big unknowns right now is when 21-year-old sensation Jubal Troop is going to be ready. If it’s this year, and if he’s as good as the scouts say he is, he turns a rotation you rank in the upper half into one you rank in the upper quartile. Until then, though, the problem is that none of the current guys (Leon Flores (8/8/7 Ratings), Alex Lopez (8/6/8 Ratings), Jorge Stanza (6/8/9 Ratings), Matt Hansen (8/7/7 Ratings), or the aforementioned Willard) look like a #1, though Stanza did win an astounding 24 games and a Nebraska in 2030, he’s 35 and coming back from a year’s absence due to a UCL. Color us skeptical, but rooting for him. If he’s back full-speed-ahead, that changes the equation a bunch. Regardless, the good news is that most of these guys do look like #2s and #3s.

The rest of the good news is that the bullpen is one of those sneaky-good kinds of groups. Not a classic, but it’s got a beat and you can dance to it, you know, Dick? Let’s call it a 95. The closer role was a bit of a musical chairs thing between Dillon Young (10/6/7 Ratings) and Chris Adkins (10/6/8 Ratings) last year, we wonder if it will be the same this time around.

Offensively, the team is a complete package, and it’s no surprise tha tit led the division with 933 runs. Guys like Gilstrom, RF Larry King, DH Ettienne LaFitte and 3B Armando Hernandez can hit it a long way, guys like outfielders Jorge Rodriguez and Ken Jenkins (9/7/2/5/9 Ratings) can get on base an run. It’s an offense built with mature pros you can count on, scattered with the occasional 23-year-old 2B Charles Martin (8/7/1/4/10 Ratings) and 22-year-old 3B Gary Schneider (6/7/7/9/5 Ratings) to fill in, along with the stereotypical 35-year-old veteran Joe Castle (6/5/8/5/5 Ratings) to fill in behind the plate and keep the rudder pointed in the right direction.

That’s the feel with this team right now. Montreal is on rails, running on the meat of its run. It’s finished 1st or second every season for the past seven.

Steady as she goes, though, right? Steady as she goes.

We’re going to project that Troop is a year away, though. And that Stanza helps, but isn’t fully there. That makes this prediction:

PREDICTION: 89-73
[hr]
Atlantic City

ImageIn a high-stakes game of poker, sometimes you got to seize opportunity. Here in Gamblertown, GM Joshua Biddle decided to raise the pot and draw two. In return got a pair of $144M aces in Antonio Correa (8/6/9 Ratings) and Eduardo Lopez (10/8/6 Ratings). Put the kid Dan Cannon (10/7/8 Ratings) in there with them, and the rotation might not give up a run three days out of five. Add in Gonzalo Fajardo (6/7/8 Ratings), and you’ve got a decent fourth. Taking a chance on a #5 seems like a solid gamble.

The bullpen, though, well, it looks like it’s going to consist of Alan Dominguez (10/7/8 Ratings) and a Rule 5 guy in Fransicso Gonzalez.

As far as the lineup goes, they have a solid young outfield in LF Chang-hyeok Chang (9/8/2/3/9 Ratings), CF Ricardo Hernandez, and RF Ray Castillo (7/6/7/5/7 Ratings). DH Antonio Sanchez can still hit right handers. The infield is…well…old, even assuming 20-year-old Jose Vela (4/4/1 Ratings) gets the nod at shortstop. Marvin Slater (7/6/6/5/5 Ratings) at 2B and Boone Carlyle (7/6/5/7/4 Ratings) at 3B are 32 and 37, and Rafael Bido (6/6/9/9/5 Ratings) at 1B is 34. They recently signed middle infielder Joshua Bauer, who should help, but barring a deal or a few more adds, there’s not much in the minors that looks ready to help.

Of course, they won’t need a lot.

At the end of the day, they finished last year with a 782 to 881 run differential and won 71 games. This is going to get a lot better on the pitching side, and maybe a little better with the lumber. As long as those starters stay healthy, the Gamblers are going to win more than they lose. Let’s call it 795-790. That says 82 wins.

PREDICTION: 84-78
[hr]
Charm City

ImageCharm City continues to roll along after playing Cinderella and punching their ticket to a highly unlikely post season appearance. How long before the league stops underestimating GM Brandon Slouck’s little expansion club, eh?

They won 83 games last season, counting the play-in game, and really lost only Mario Mendez (8/7/9 Ratings) (admittedly to division rival, Jacksonville).

Offensively, it’s a solid team that has the hallmarks of a contender with a superstar still close to his prime in LF Savage Salazar, and another just starting out in RF Aubry Anderson. DH Brian Whitten (8/5/7/6/7 Ratings) is pricey, but can still DH a bit, and they just bought out a bit of 25-year-old 3B Desiderius Kirshbaum (8/6/4/4/10 Ratings)’s arbitration. Kirshbaum can hit a bit, and fields the role well. A recent trade for Valencia’s Pablo Soto (8/6/3/3/10 Ratings) plugged a semi-bleeding hole at shortstop, and with Byron Hearle (6/6/7/8/7 Ratings) and Jeaic Dalyell (7/6/1/3/9 Ratings) at second and first, the Jimmies are solid in the infield. At 25, Dan Logan is one of the better young catchers in the league.

Admittedly, the soft underside of the Jimmies remains the pitching staff.

Charm City got a bit of magic out of the rotation last year, specifically from Egbert Behner (9/8/8 Ratings) in the #1 slot. They’ll probably need more of it this yearVeteran Chester Kipling (6/8/8 Ratings) is one of those inning eater kind of pitchers who keeps his team in the game, and young Arturo Cruz (9/5/9 Ratings) (27) and Arturo Reyes (25), while inconsistent, can sometimes dazzle. Fans are suggested to manage expectations for these guys, but the fact is that the bullpen is pretty good—so as long as the rotation can just get them to the 6th, they Jimmies are going to be hard to beat again..

So, yeah, what Charm City is, is pretty good. What they aren’t however, is particularly deep. This means that if you try to handicap the Johnson Atlantic race, you have to take a guess at how healthy the team from Baltimore will be. The good news here is that it’s pretty young, and young teams have a better tendency to keep it together. It’s also got a little cash now, so Slouck could be active on the trade market. We’re going to guess that he will be, and guess that it will work out.

But, really, who knows, right? (I mean, besides Aaron, who knows everything about the future of these guys!)

PREDICTION: 84-78
[hr]
Carolina:

ImageCarolina is like the hero you notice sitting in the shadows of dark corner of a rowdy bar. The place is hot and loud and maybe even smokey, but the guy just sits there, scanning the entire room and waiting for his opening. Yeah. Or, if you want another metaphor, let’s say Kraken fans are like those people you see out in the ocean, waiting for waves of prospects to arrive so they can body surf their way back to competitiveness with. And make no mistake, the water is choppy with prospect chum and the waves, they are a’comin’. Some, like 23-year-old CF Gabriel Delgado (7/7/6/4/9 Ratings) and 24-year-old RF Chet Gabriel (7/6/7/5/8 Ratings) have already hit. Others, like 21-year-old infielders Oliver Burrell and Jin-song Xuan are still on their way.

Given that All-Star Valeri Kharlamov (8/7/5/7/5 Ratings) should be back and healthy, that Frank Thomas (4/6/6/3/5 Ratings) II is stlil a fearsome enough presence, and that the kids should just be better through sheer experience, one expects the bats to do considerably better than the 711 runs they got last year.

On the hill, it’s the same story. GM Aaron Weiner went out and added 35-year-old veteran reliever Manny Vargas (8/8/9 Ratings) in deal with Madison, but otherwise this is a grow-your-own operation that’s stewing in that dark corner and the only question is whether the hero steps out this year or next.

22 year olds Arthur Dempster (9/8/6 Ratings) and Juan Perez, and 23-year-old Andres Georges are already the central core of a good, young staff, and there’s more coming. Lots more. The bullpen has a few pieces now, but depending on how kids like Tim Waller (9/7/6 Ratings) and Marcio Idanha (7/7/8 Ratings) hold up, might have a few more weak spots than most Kraken fans would like. Last season was not a good omen for Waller and Idanha, however, so let’s not get to optimistic, yet.

At the end of the day, how you feel about this all is probably weighted toward how you feel about watching players develop and how you feel about the Kraken icon Frank Thomas (4/6/6/3/5 Ratings) III do his thing. The team won only 68 games last year. We think they’re going to do better this year. In fact, if there’s a team who will out –perform our projections, we’re guessing it will be the kids from Carolina.

In the meantime, we’re going to say:

PREDICTION: 76-86
[hr]
Halifax

ImageWhich brings us to poor little Halifax, an organization playing with only half a deck right now, but who used that half a deck to sign about half a pitching staff using low-wage free agency and the Rule 5 draft. Overall, it seems like a decent enough idea. The organization won only 66 games last season, and hasn’t broken .500 ball for half a dozen more. Don’t expect that string to end in 2032.

But here’s the thing: GM Jason Russell’s team has a cupboard full of prospects. The Hawks could be good sometime soon. The interesting questions here are: (1) How good, and (2) How soon?

With the youth movement afoot, a lot of fans were nonplussed when Russell executed 35-year-old OF Jorge Martinez’s $10M option this off-season. Martinez can still play, but the aging vet has been averaging 1.1 WAR for the past three seasons. Otherwise, the bats are all young and all of some interest. Stelio Kontos (7/7/8/6/6 Ratings), at first, for example, had a regressive season in 2031. At 27, you expect he’ll be able to bounce back. At second, it looks like 24-year-old Ismael Lopez’s time might be here. Switchie 3B Bucky Dornster (6/6/5/6/7 Ratings) (24) did a 2.7 WAR in his sophomore season, solid enough. 21-year-old shortstop ‘Pendragon’ Gonzalez struggled a bit at times last year, but he’s going to be good.

Martinez’s contract aside, the outfield is more of the same—led by 26-year-old Dominic Wyatt and 22 year old Elijah Curry (7/7/6/3/9 Ratings). Plug in 27-year-old catcher Luis Miguel Carrillo (6/6/9/9/7 Ratings) (whose 5.4 WAR was one of those things no one is talking about enough, and you’ve got some exciting young hitters.

The problem, of course, is pitching. Hence the comment that adding a few solid, low-cost arms seems like a prudent thing. I mean, Sancho Delgado (8/8/7 Ratings) aside, the team’s best pitcher is probably Stephen Clulow, who is 19 and in AA where he belongs right now.All right, technically that might be wrong: 22-year-old Guillermo Martines should be the team’s best pitcher, but he was injured last year and I can’t call him that until I see him throw a sub 5.50 ERA someplace. The team also has two other young arms in Jonathan Frank (6/7/6 Ratings) and Mick Woodall (4/6/7 Ratings) who could eventually be serviceable, though I’m not sure I would want to eat up a year’s time with them in 2032. At 23, despite his 3.94 ERA last season, you have to wonder if Lee McHone (10/8/3 Ratings)’s wildness may cost him a real career…but man, the guy can heat it up.

As Renee Zellweger might say, I love this staff for the rotation it might one day be. Or something like that.

The problem, of course, is that we’re talking 2032. Andin 2032, my guess is that this pitching staff isn’t going to cut the mustard. So, while the total package will win more than the 68 it turned last year, it’s not going to get to winning more…uh…bigly…until 2033.

PREDICTION 72-90
[hr]
Brooklyn

ImageThe big news in Brooklyn is that they fixed up the ballpark good and well to reduce expenses on lost home run balls. GM Alan Ehlers also added SP Gerardo Castillo (7/7/7 Ratings) and RP Conan Harris (10/7/3 Ratings), so that’s good news—though Ehlers also spent a chunk of last year trading away pitchers.

Of course, the main issue here is that, fences moved out or not, the rotation doesn’t look to be particularly good, and the bullpen, while serviceable, looks to still have holes in the hull. Castillo will help, and 26-year-old Jose Morales is a mainstay and a solid pro. One wonders if Miguel Dezgado (8/7/7 Ratings), who has more success in the pen than the rotation, might still be asked to go back to throwing every five days. If LH SP Ferguson Gibson (9/6/5 Ratings) likes the bigger expanse of the new digs better, that might help a bit, but he’s an enigma right now.

Among the problems of moving Dezgado to the rotation is that with 23 saves last year, he was one of the more dependable arms in the group. There’s not a ton left in the minors to flesh in the hole Dezgado’s departure would create, and while there’s a little money left for Ehlers to throw around, Brooklyn is a bit deficient in the budget right now overall.

Danger that way lies.

In addition, if you want to say something good about the team’s lineup, it’s that it’s young and so you can expect it to get better as the year proceeds. If you want to say something catty about it, however, it’s that it looks a lot more like a very good AAA team than a competitive major league outfit. How so, you ask? Well…star-in-the-making, 19 year old Harry Rectenberg made his debut last year, and bombed. 21 year old shortstop Tony Gustafson managed 1.5 WAR last year, but it was all defensive. His OPS+ was 74. 21 year old second baseman Carlos Camacho (6/8/5/6/6 Ratings) played 128 games last season, and was replacement level. Scouts say his power should be prodigious, but the fans haven’t seen it happen, yet.

Bottom line: this is a team on a youth movement, and youth movements, as politicians all know, have a tendency to make a lot of noise before the election, and then die at the polls. Last year the club scored only 706 runs in a hitter’s park. This year they should get better by pure growth, but the renovations will take some of that away. How much? Hell, who can tell? Let’s say the peg the meter at a still poor 725. The staff gave up 789, and we’re not sure it’s going to stay at that level. Let’s say 820.

PREDICTION: 70-92
[hr]

So, there you have it. The 2032 JLA. Four solid teams, with Carolina definitely ready to break out, and Halifax maybe closer than one would expect. See? I told you the division id getting better, right?
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Re: 2032 - Johnson League Atlantic

Post by bcslouck » Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:59 pm

Nice write up, Ron. Expect Charm City to have another move or 2 in them.
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Re: 2032 - Johnson League Atlantic

Post by usnspecialist » Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:10 pm

I appreciate you keeping your AC portion short so I have some meat on the bone still for my version (coming in the next few days).
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JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

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Re: 2032 - Johnson League Atlantic

Post by RonCo » Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:22 pm

usnspecialist wrote:I appreciate you keeping your AC portion short so I have some meat on the bone still for my version (coming in the next few days).
Don't worry about it. The great thing about multiple reviews is that you can see either disagreements, or things that one guy misses and another guy gets. :)

Then we get to Aaron's and we all get to see what's really going to happen. :)
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Re: 2032 - Johnson League Atlantic

Post by ae37jr » Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:51 pm

I prefer the BNN Preseason Predictions. Jacksonville losing 93 games kinda kills any credibility it has though.
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Re: 2032 - Johnson League Atlantic

Post by usnspecialist » Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:00 pm

ae37jr wrote:I prefer the BNN Preseason Predictions. Jacksonville losing 93 games kinda kills any credibility it has though.
If I win 90 games I will be absolutely stunned. I might have to score 1000 runs for that to happen with my pitching staff this year.
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Re: 2032 - Johnson League Atlantic

Post by udlb58 » Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:45 pm

Awesome stuff Ron. I only was able to get through the first 3 tonight, but I'll definitely be reading about the bottom of the division tomorrow.

I was going to post after all the AC love that I still felt like our rotation was better 1-5 than ATC, but who knows? Crow could actually be as bad as 2031, Tonche could regress, Mendez could flop, Howard may not recover from his injury, and Chapel's right arm may actually fly off mid-delivery.

Offensively we're balanced but lack the depth we had last year (Gonzales and Braddock were bench players a year ago, now they are both starters)
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