Hawaii - getting worse by the hour?

[felipe]

Its getting very hard to remember that Hawaii won it all only six short years ago, (albeit in a flukey, undeserving kind of way - 101 wins? That's almost .500 ball).

They just keep slipping further and further into an ever deepening morass of inadequacy and despair. A 71-91 record in 2029, was followed up by a 64-98 record in 2030.

'Havana-like' numbers.

At least they got a low payroll.

Nerfherder has been strangely quiet over the Tropics' steepening decline, giving out year end awards to roster retreads, and changing the first mate, (not the captain) at the helm of a rusty, leaking ship. Haryadi couldn't manage his way out of a Walmart super center, but now he's got a new second in command, mediocre AAA manager, Ralph Mouth, to deflect the blame, instead of a new outfield, which would be much more beneficial.

It gets even harder for the Tropics, as they must open 2031 against the mighty Sluggers of Louisville, dooming Hawaaii to starting the season 0 and 4.

Nerfherder has assembled a murderers row of light-hitting, great fielders, to assault the JL in 2031.

Long-time Tropic backstop, Groucho Carter, has apparently taken his career .720 OPS and indifferent defence, to take over designated hitter duties for the Tropics, opening the door to big league plate appearances to the likes of Fernando Ortiz, and Michael Simpson. Both provide decent defence, neither hits particularly well, but at least Simpson has got some power. Ortiz couldn't even crack .700 OPS in a notorious hitters league (AAA). Nakamura is hanging around the fringes too. Its very hard to get excited about these guys. Perhaps Nerf should get on the horn to Louisville and pick up a real man, like Antonio Robles, to squat behind the dish.

Joe Wilcox, is presumably returning to man first base. Wilcox is decent enough, good for 20 HR and .800 OPS...average production for a big league first basemen, exceptional production for a third baseman...which he also plays very well.

But then, where would the likes of light-hitting Lamberto Morra (career .600 OPS) or Manuel Roman play? Ugh. Maybe Nerfed should check out free agency for a power swinger to play first and move Wilcox to third. Rumours out of Louisville suggest .800 OPS man, Frgua, could be had for a $1 and the promise of a starting position. Or a little more would garner Baba Lue.

Presumably Backstrom and Johnson will play up the middle. Which is all well and good, except Backstrom did his best 'Johnson at the plate' impression in 2030...lets hope he rebounds. Unfortunately for Johnson, Backstrom pretending to hit like him, is still far better than what the real Johnson will manage. Solid defence up the middle though. Spectacular even. Perez, Regret,Bradshaw, and Meija, wait in the stands for any calamities to befall the starters.

The outfield is made up of Ayers, Torror, and Miranda. Reina, Cruz, and Moreno all pray they don't get too many at-bats, lest they be exposed for the AAAA players they really are. Manuel Rodrgiuez was a late free-agent addition to the outfield.

Expected lineup

LF Miranda (.340 OBP, .716 OPS, 42 steals)
1B Wilcox (.338 OBP, .787 OPS, 25 HR)
RF Ayers (.298 OBP, .723 OPS, 19 2B)
DH Carter (.286 OBP, .707 OPS, 25 HR)
2B Backstrom (.260 OBP, .697 OPS, 33 HR)
3B Morra (.327 OBP, .686 OPS)
C Whoever it ends up (.700 OPS in AAA)
SS Johnson (33 steals, almost .800 OPS in AA)
CF Torror (.366 OBP, .815 OPS, 16 SB in AAA)


Rotation

Three fifths of the 2030 tenth ranked JL rotation, return for 2031. No Pants Nunez needs no introduction. If he wasn't stuck in the baseball backwater of Hawaii he'd be as well known as guys like Chandler. Still, he's a legitimate #1. Traado also returns to the Tropics staff. He's got three great pitches, but suffers from mediocre movement...he's a solid #4 pitcher on a contending staff. Limon also returns, but will likely be the sixth guy, long reliever.

Which leaves a bunch of holes. Matt Mills would seem to be a likely candidate to nail down a role in the rotation; he did very well in AAA Death Valley in 2030...he doesn't throw very hard, but his body of work suggests he can pitch. Antonio Cardenas has yet to win a game in six tries for the Tropics, but they must have got him from Des Moines for a reason...and he finished third in AAA pitcher of the year in 2030. Raul Sanchez would seem to be the favorite to nail down a spot in the rotation, as he's the sole left-hander in contention for a spot. He's not too bad either. But, he has performed much better in the bullpen than the rotation, which opens the door for guys like Chris Drover or John Jefferson.

Expected Rotation

Nunez RHP 8-15, 3.66 FIP
Mills RHP 14-7, 3.33 FIP AAA
Traado RHP 13-15, 4.12 FIP
Sanchez LHP 5-2. 3.17 FIP
Cardenas RHP 9-5, 3.16 FIP AAA

Bullpen

Closer Armando Lopez returns, and he was one of the game's better ones in 2030. Stokes also returns as an excellent setup man. Miguel Lara is aging, but was still an inspired free agent pickup by the Tropics. Guys like Barajas, Franco, Crowder, Valentin, and Hurtado bolster what should be a strong pen.

The staff is ok, the rotation has holes and question marks behind Nunez, but there's a myriad of strong relievers, but there is a dearth of left-handers...which is often the kiss of death in the BBA. Team defence should be a definite strength, but may be let down by poor intangibles of the catchers. But the team is young, and young question marks often have much happier results than the older aging veteran kind of question marks.

Outlook

I just don't think these guys are very good. They're just not going to score many runs. Their pitching looks 'just' ok, but who knows how the youngsters will fare in 2031. A couple of better bats in the lineup would go a long way to improving this team, and there's cheap ones available in free agency to throw onto first base or DH. There's also a few lefty relievers available that wouldn't hurt the squad.

At the current state of the club, I see 65 wins again. With a few modest improvements, I can see a .500 team, if I squint. I'm not sure Mike wants a .500 team. A lot of talent was left in the minors last season, that could have helped. Does a .500 team make the playoffs? It took 86 wins in 2030, and 84 wins in 2029.

A lot depends on some very young starters, and there's not much depth behind them. The farm for the most part, is years away.

But they got the cap room.

I expect you'll see some movement in trades, if by some miracle, they're still in the playoff hunt mid-season.

[RonCo]

Talk about your cliffhangers....

[nerfHerder]

You better hurry and finish this. Twelve more hours of decay and you'll have to completely start over.

[felipe]

completed hatchet job