2030 Landis Preview: Louisville vs. Las Vegas

[aaronweiner]

Quick Info:


Louisville Record: 115-47
Louisville Run Differential: 873/604

Las Vegas Record: 101-61
Las Vegas Run Differential: 826/622


Previously In The Playoffs:

Louisville first had a bye, then took care of the Yellow Springs Nine in six games, losing just two one-run games, both in the late innings. In the Cartwright, the Sluggers survived a solid challenge by the Long Beach Surfers, but took Games 4, 5, and 6 to advance. Louisville is making their first Landis appearance since 2021 and their second as a franchise.

Las Vegas first had a bye, then survived a seven-game series with the Huntsville Phantoms where they were outscored 27-22. In the Cartwright, Las Vegas advanced by crushing the Montreal Blazers’ middle relief. The Hustlers haven’t missed the playoffs since the year 2019, the longest consecutive streak in the BBA. They lost the Landis Memorial Series last year to Long Beach, their second appearance in three years.




Overview:

Louisville and Las Vegas as franchises have a long and storied history dating back since the beginning of the league; the two franchises are among the 13 franchises that have never been moved in the BBA. However, they don’t have a lot of history against EACH OTHER. The two franchises have been to a combined eleven Landis Memorial Series (8 of them Vegas), but none against one another.

Louisville, of course, is still looking for that first elusive title; in fact, in their other two Landis Memorial Series, they won just one game combined. This year would seem to be their best shot: the Sluggers tied Las Vegas’ record for most wins in a season this year, set in 2006; that Vegas team won their second Landis that year. They will be missing their best player in Leon Sandcastle, but they still have a formidable squad without the future Hall of Fame centerfielder.

Las Vegas, on the other hand, will go into the final round basically healthy and looking to set their own BBA record of six championships (no other franchise has more than four). The Hustlers haven’t looked indomitable in these playoffs, but they’ve had a tough road just to get to the Landis, going through the 2028 champion Huntsville Phantoms and the 104-win Montreal Blazers.

It’s time to make some history. Can the record-setting Louisville Sluggers break through for their first title? Can the Hustlers, who already have better than one in every six league titles, add to their legacy of greatness? Let’s see the tale of the tape.




Hitting:

Louisville didn’t lead the BBA in offense this year, but they handily led the Frick League in that category this season. Tops in homers, extra-base hits, and batting average, fourth in walks, the Sluggers have it all offensively...except their top performer. Leon Sandcastle, notoriously brittle, went down in Game 2 of the Doubleday round, and his absence leaves a huge hole in the middle of the Louisville lineup. Neither Thierry Mignot nor James Cunningham is likely to fill in as well, though Cunningham is one of the league’s premier defensive 8s. Brian Clough, very possibly a Hall of Famer in his own right, has had a good playoffs so far and will need to lead this squad effectively. Past Sandcastle the team has eight starters who hit double digit homers and even past Sandcastle the team had a stellar 28.4 WAR offensively, so they can rake.

For Vegas, you know the names already: Brewer, Ridder, Gulliver, Martinez. The loss of Alex Ramirez in Game 7 of the Doubleday won’t help the Hustlers, but Alfredo Bermudez hit well against Montreal and should fill in well. Ernesto Chavez has had a huge playoffs so far (20-49 at the plate, a blistering .408 average) and might play a role.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the BBA, and so there shouldn’t be too much of an advantage here; even with Sandcastle going down the team is deep defensively at CF. Las Vegas stole 170 bases this year, but the loss of Alex Ramirez puts a damper on that somewhat, and the rocket arm of Louisville’s Shag Hopkins should make it difficult to run on the Sluggers’ catcher. Louisville was dead last in steals this year, not good at it when they did, and if they have any stolen bases it will be by accident.



Pitching:

Jon Chandler, the Louisville de facto #1 starter, got pretty badly beaten up against the Surfers in the last round. He actually won his only decision but with a 10.61 ERA it was more of a moral victory. He’ll need to bounce back against Vegas, but there are some concerns he may be wearing down. Notably, Mario Gonzalez and Anastasio Quintana both had over 230 innings this year, and Quintana was almost as bad as Chandler in the last round; Gonzalez was nails in his only start. Knuckleballer Abe Colbert, Jr. is the team’s secret weapon, and he had the best round of any pitcher against the Surfers. They’ll need a better effort from this group to take down Vegas. Their bullpen in the Cartwright was good, and they led the JL in bullpen ERA this year.

Gary Estes has been coming up huge for the Hustlers in the playoffs and all year long, though he didn’t go deep into either ballgame. Sam Romero looked good against the Blazers in his only start. Mike Bailey got beaten up in both his starts against Montreal, so that is a cause for some concern. Good news for the Hustlers: Philip Morris is available as early as Game 3, and if he can shake off the rust in a hurry he can be a big boost to Vegas’ chances. The Hustler bullpen also doesn’t resemble the lockdown groups of recent seasons past, and they have been just okay in the BBA playoffs; they might need to do better, too, to get past the big bats of Louisville.




Overall:

I’m sure you’re expecting me to write that if the Sluggers had Sandcastle, this wouldn’t be a tough series to call. Nope. This is a prime example of a team trying to break through against a team that’s as good as it gets historically. Despite Louisville’s regular season dominance, this is a classic underdog story and Louisville’s the underdog.

This is probably a series between the two best teams this year, which rarely happens in the BBA. In fact, the playoffs has gone more or less to script so far. That’s a lot of favorites winning so far. We’d be remiss in giving Louisville that status so quickly.

This isn’t a matchup that clearly favors anyone. For example, Vegas’ top lefties aren’t running up against a swarm of lefty batters. Vegas isn’t going to be able to run in this series, maybe almost at all. Both teams nicely neutralize what the other does, and that should make it a tough series.

Louisville’s bullpen has been better than Vegas’ all year, and the playoffs haven’t been different. That alone might make the difference if top starters like Chandler and Anastasio Quintana can’t bring it, but if they do I think Louisville has a possible advantage. It’s close, but I’m taking the Sluggers in a nailbiter.

Prediction: Louisville in 7.


[hr][hr]

[7teen]

This is like watching a World Series between the Yankees and Cubs (pre-2016) One wins all the time and one everyone loves to see lose.

I'm just sitting over here pulling for a dozen Career Ending Injuries to both teams. (insert evil laugh)

[nerfHerder]

Awesome write up. Good luck to both of you. This has the feeling of a prize fight.

[felipe]

Wait...which team does everyone want to lose???

[aaronweiner]

Wait...which team does everyone want to lose???

From what I just read, they want both teams to lose.

[recte44]

That'd be you. :)

[Lane]

Wait...which team does everyone want to lose???

From what I just read, they want both teams to lose.

Obviously everyone was rooting for Long Beach/Montreal in the Landis