2030 JL Cartwright: Las Vegas vs. Montreal

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aaronweiner
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2030 JL Cartwright: Las Vegas vs. Montreal

Post by aaronweiner » Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:06 pm

Quick Info:


Las Vegas Record: 101-61
Las Vegas Run Differential: 826/622

Montreal Record: 104-58
Montreal Run Differential: 826/622


Head to Head:

While Las Vegas won the season series by a count of 8-4, they only outscored the Blazers by a 55-53 spread during those twelve games – not statistically significant. Montreal split a four-game set with the Hustlers in September, outscoring them 18-13 in the process. There doesn’t appear to be a crystal-clear advantage here.

Previously In The Playoffs:

Las Vegas first had a bye, then survived a seven-game series with the Huntsville Phantoms where they were outscored 27-22. The Hustlers haven’t missed the playoffs since the year 2019, the longest consecutive streak in the BBA. They lost the Landis Memorial Series last year to Long Beach, their second appearance in three years.

The Blazers had the other JL bye, then also just barely nudged out the Atlantic City Gamblers; Montreal lost the three games in the series by a total of 27-9, then won the four games by a count of 18-9. Montreal earned a bye due to their outstanding regular season, and are making their fourth consecutive playoff appearance after a five year drought. The Blazers have made two out of the last three Cartwright Cups, but have been knocked out of the playoffs by Las Vegas each of the last three years.




Overview:

Welcome to the biggest grudge match this side of Goldberg. This is Montreal/Las Vegas IV, the fourth straight year these two teams have met in the playoffs, and the grudge is all Montreal’s. The Blazers have been knocked out by the Hustlers EACH of the last three years, which could drive anyone utterly insane. Not only that, Montreal has yet to force a seventh game in any one of those three series, losing in five last year, six two years ago, and getting swept in 2027.

This year, the Blazers come into the series completely healthy. They won more games in the regular season with a better run differential. The Hustlers have two key performers out for the series. Bottom line: the Blazers look better and the Hustlers worse.

Is this the year Montreal breaks through the Vegas wall? Will the Hustlers break Canadian hearts once again? Let’s get to the matchup.

Hitting:

By the numbers, Las Vegas is the only team in the league that doesn’t have a clear advantage over Montreal, though Alfredo Martinez missed 60 games is probably the only thing that kept the Hustlers from scoring 6 runs a game. You know the names already: Brewer, Ridder, Gulliver. The loss of Alex Ramirez in Game 7 of the Doubleday won’t help the Hustlers, but that’s one position they can fill, with Ernesto Chavez likely to play 3B and Alfredo Bermudez taking over at second in what might even be a modest defensive upgrade.

One of the biggest differences between last year and this year’s Montreal team is rookie sensation Ettienne R. Lafitte, who just happened to have an OPS better than 1.000 against Atlantic City. Gillstrom was good, too, as he always is; the series features probably the two best position players in the game today in Gillstrom and Alfredo Martinez. Montreal also has slugger Cisco Guerrero back from injury, which is a big deal as he had just one at bat against Atlantic City. Montreal was second in the JL in runs and first in stolen bases, but just a mediocre 9th in homers and 7th in walks drawn, which creates an interesting contrast with the Hustlers, who were second in homers.

Both teams stole over 170 bases this year. Montreal specifically might have the best running game in the league today. Vegas was very good at throwing out runners stealing this year, and Hank Brewer is one of the best defensive catchers in the game today. Vegas’ defense should be better than Montreal’s, which might or might not matter in a short series.

Pitching:

All three of Montreal’s top starters were outstanding against Las Vegas this year, as the trio of Leon Flores, Luis Soto, and Jorge Stanza combined for an ERA well below 3.00 and a 34/7 K/BB ratio, excellent numbers all around, and the pitchers combined for two of the four wins against Vegas this year. The Blazers’ normally reliable pen wasn’t that reliable against the Hustlers, though, and that will make a huge difference if the trend continues.

Vegas really only had one effective starting pitcher in the last series, Gary Estes. Estes won 20 games for the Hustlers and should be reliable against Montreal, against whom he had a 1.27 ERA in the regular season. Sam Romero was solid in two starts against Montreal this year but didn’t go deep into either ballgame. Mike Bailey was dependable against Montreal this year as well. The Hustlers are still missing Philip Morris, as the consistent 15-game winner probably won’t pitch in the series. Vegas’ bullpen also doesn’t resemble the lockdown groups of recent seasons past, though Jesus Ramos looks to be a stud at the end of the pen and the top guys did fine against Montreal this year.

Overall:

The Blazers are healthier than Vegas, stronger than last year, and their likely rotation had success against the Vegas batter this year. The Hustlers are better defensively, better offensively and had success pitching against Montreal this year. It’s becoming boring to write this season in the JL, but I still think this one might be too close to call. Considering the way the playoffs have gone so far, with the team outscored winning both series in the JL, I’m almost uncomfortable calling this one for either team because the numbers, in this case, have lied.

In the end I’ll go with the Blazers because of the consistency of their starters during the regular season against Vegas, but this is such a close matchup it could go any which way.

Prediction: Montreal in 7.

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Re: 2030 JL Cartwright: Las Vegas vs. Montreal

Post by felipe » Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:40 pm

I think you got this spot on; I guess well see

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Re: 2030 JL Cartwright: Las Vegas vs. Montreal

Post by recte44 » Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:22 pm

My starting pitching might doom me. I have to have Mike Bailey pitch Game 2 so I can have Cho only pitch at home. That might be the difference. Losing Morris is really stinging right now.

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