2030 FL Cartwright: Louisville vs. Long Beach

[aaronweiner]

Quick Info:


Louisville Record: 115-47
Louisville Run Differential: 873/604

Long Beach Record: 84-79
Long Beach Run Differential: 674/682



Head to Head:

Louisville dominated the season series against Long Beach, winning 14 out of 17 games and basically ending this conversation early. And, yes, it was every bit as bad as it sounded.



Previously In The Playoffs:

Louisville first had a bye, then took care of the Yellow Springs Nine in six games, losing just two one-run games, both in the late innings. The Sluggers were beaten last year in the Cartwright by the same Surfers in 6 games, as the two finished with the top two records in the FL.

Long Beach has had some work to do just getting here, first sweeping the Vancouver Mounties in the Geoghegan round, then winning a hard-fought seven game set against California. Like Louisville, Long Beach has looked pretty good in the playoffs, as two of their three losses in 10 games were by one run so far.



Overview:

It’s surprising that this is the second-biggest grudge match in the playoffs, as The Genius doesn’t take losing lightly, but it is. Louisville and Long Beach have historically been in opposite leagues, but in their second year sharing the FL, they are the only two teams that have played in the new, realigned FL Cartwright Series, and Louisville lost to eventual champion Long Beach in six games.

Of course, last year, both teams had an equal claim to the title. This year, Louisville comes in with a tie for the best record in league history, and Long Beach comes in with a win/loss record that wouldn’t have qualified for the playoffs under the old system and an underwater run differential. This one shouldn’t even be close, right?

Not so fast: there are some structural questions that might make it interesting to see whether or not the Surfers have a realistic shot in this series. Still, this would be a monster upset story. Can Long Beach pull off an improbable defeat of the heavily favored Sluggers?



Hitting:

Louisville didn’t lead the BBA in offense this year, but they handily led the Frick League in that category this season. Tops in homers, extra-base hits, and batting average, fourth in walks, the Sluggers have it all offensively...except their top performer. Leon Sandcastle, notoriously brittle, went down in Game 2 of the Doubleday round, and his absence leaves a huge hole in the middle of the Louisville lineup. Neither Thierry Mignot nor James Cunningham is likely to fill in as well, though Cunningham is one of the league’s premier defensive 8s. Past Sandcastle the team has eight starters who hit double digit homers and even past Sandcastle the team had a stellar 28.4 WAR offensively.

Long Beach, on the other hand, finished a legitimate eleventh in offense this year. There’s a lot of talent here, but it’s young talent. Mark Simpson crushed the competition this year, and Carlos Gonzales was also very good, but Kade Cummins, former #1 overall pick, saw his numbers fell off dramatically this season in a sophomore slump. And those were the only three players who finished with a league average OPS. Ippolito Basaglia had good numbers as a catcher, and Antonio Valentin could go off with some kind of 18 hits in 36 at bat performance, but mostly this team isn’t built for a lot of offense.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the BBA, and so there shouldn’t be too much of an advantage here; even with Sandcastle going down the team is three deep defensively at CF. The two teams were right at the bottom in stolen bases, though it is conceivable that Valentin and 3B Ricardo Guerra could both have decent series stealing bases if not for the rocket arm of Shag Hopkins. If Louisville steals any bases it will be by accident.



Pitching:

Louisville’s Jon Chandler has been a consistent #1 or 1A starter for as long as he’s been in the league, one of those guys who’s near the top of the league but never quite on top; this year he won 23 games and threw 251 innings to lead the league. Last year he led the Frick in strikeouts. In fact, all the Louisville starters are high usage: Mario Gonzalez and Anastasio Quintana both had over 230 innings this year. All three had solid seasons. Knuckleballer Abe Colbert, Jr. is the team’s secret weapon, and was superior against Long Beach this year. In fact, only Gonzalez had any problems at all with the Surfers.

Like the rest of the Long Beach team, they’re reliant on young players to get the job done, as players like Van Willard and Francisco Medina didn’t make the postseason roster. You could actually do a lot worse as a playoff rotation than Jose Lozano, Esteban Gil, and Jimmy Greenwood, none of whom is older than 26 years old. Flint Colbert had another big year in the bullpen, and the pen as a whole is not bad at all.



Overall:

I think this series is closer than the numbers suggest as long as Long Beach’s starters don’t get roughed up. Long Beach has a solid nucleus of hitters, good enough to steal a few games from the Sluggers and, sometimes, that’s all it takes to win one of those short series. I don’t know if I’d have felt the same way if Sandcastle was playing, but losing your #3 hitter before the Cartwright is no way to demonstrate your overwhelming power. And Louisville had their warts anyway; they’re a +8 in Pythagorean differential.

And then there’s the “Come on!” moment where you realize that Long Beach’s Pythagorean record is 81-82, and they’re playing against a team that just set a record for wins, and that Long Beach won just 3 out of 17! games against Louisville this year. Suddenly, it doesn’t look so close anymore.

Prediction: Louisville in 6.


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[Lane]

Well done. Thank you for the preview.

It's really spot on...I don't feel confident that I'm going to win the series, but with Sandcastle down, our chances got just a bit better.

FWIW, LBC was 2-10 against CAL before taking the Doubleday Series. I'd like to think that they're due for a few wins against the Sluggers as well.

[felipe]

On talent we take this in 5; but I guess we have to play the games anyway