2030 JL Doubleday: Montreal vs. Atlantic City

[aaronweiner]

Quick Info:


Montreal Record: 104-58
Montreal Run Differential: 826/622

Atlantic City Record: 91-71
Atlantic City Run Differential: 749/678


Head to Head:

Montreal won the season series in an unconvincing 7-5 margin, averaging wins by about a run per game. They did take a four-game set in September from the Gamblers.


Previously In The Playoffs:

Atlantic City handled a tough charge from Jacksonville to advance to the Doubleday round for the second time in three years. While they won their Geoghegan series in five games, they were outscored in the series 15-10.

Montreal earned a bye due to their outstanding regular season, and are making their fourth consecutive playoff appearance after a five year drought. The Blazers have made two out of the last three Cartwright Cups, but have been knocked out of the playoffs by Las Vegas each of the last three years.

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Overview:

When the league went to realignment in 2029, some care was taken to preserve many of the divisional rivalries that existed before expansion existed. This series between Montreal features two storied, long-standing FL Atlantic rivals each trying to take another step towards winning their first Johnson League pennant.

The 2030 Blazers tied for the best record in franchise history this season, and it’s not difficult to see why. The team is young, talented, and hungry, led by two of the best position players in the game and a rock-solid pitching staff. Still blessed with a good group of starting pitchers, Montreal’s window appears open for at least a couple more years.

Atlantic City didn’t make any sudden moves this year, and they still managed to put up their third consecutive winning season. Solidly middle of the pack in most categories, the Gamblers are looking to make their deepest run in some time due to the emergence of Dan Cannon but still rely heavily on long-term veteran talent.

Which of these two rivals will get the opportunity to take on the Vegas/Huntsville winner? Let’s look deeper.



Hitting:

We’re not breaking any rules by saying that Montreal’s Jared Gillstrom is the best player in the game today. Coming off back-to-back .900 OPS seasons, Gillstrom stepped it up a notch this year by grabbing the Triple Crown, a feat that has been achieved by only two other modern batters, and his 12.5 WAR is the second best mark in league history. If they just had Gillstrom and league average players, this offense would be pretty good, but the Blazers also have Cisco Guerrero, rookie sensation Etienne Lafitte, and some of the best contact hitters in the game today. Guerrero, however, will miss at least part of the series. Montreal is not a moneyball team for all of that; while they were second in the JL in runs and first in stolen bases, they were just a mediocre 9th in homers and 7th in walks drawn.

Atlantic City’s hitting stars are all on the wrong side of 30, but their offense is balanced and solid. Valeri Kharlamov, Antonio Sanchez, and Rafael Bido are a solid basis, while Boone Carlyle can still knock around base hits at 36 years old. Players like Joaquin Camacho and Ray Castillo help to round out the offense. The team was a solid 5th in extra-base hits and 3rd in walks drawn, but overall they were just average.

Neither team is especially effective defensively as a whole team, though Atlantic City was worse. The running game clearly favors Montreal, as Atlantic City is just average at stopping the running game and Montreal’s running game might be the best in the BBA.



Pitching:

Montreal’s pitching staff is starting to age somewhat, but don’t tell Jorge Stanza that – he just went 24-4 this season and led the BBA in ERA. Stanza is really only a borderline Hall of Famer, though he’ll help his credentials if he wins the Steve Nebraska this year. The Blazers have one of the top young starters in the game in Leon Flores, can expect better from Luis Soto and have a total lockdown bullpen. They were second by a small margin only to Huntsville on least number of runs allowed.

It can be argued that as Mingo Boone goes, so will go the Gamblers. Boone was showing some signs wear last year, but shrugged off everything to have a huge throwback season where he led the league in innings pitched (the first such year he’s done so). The dirty secret is that Boone is hit-prone at this point, though still not homer-prone. In fact, Atlantic City’s saving grace this year on the pitching staff was a stinginess with home runs; they allowed the third least in the league. Montreal isn’t especially gifted as a whole in hitting home runs, so that might be an advantage for Atlantic City. Dan Cannon could at some point in the future be considered a #1 starter, but let’s see him do it consistently or better first.



Overall:

Montreal would appear to have the advantage on both sides of the diamond, but the loss of Cisco Guerrero for part of the series definitely puts a little bit of a damper on the enthusiasm. Still, the Blazers were one of the best regular season teams in the league this year. It’ll come down to how the 2-4 starters go, I think, but also whether Atlantic City’s bats come alive. I can see this one going either way.


Prediction: Montreal in 7.

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[ae37jr]

I feel like Montreal and Atlantic City have a bitter rivalry. This series will be a battle.

[Cliche]

Well, this was sure a spot on prediction.

[JohnC]

On the money. Well done Aaron.