2030 JL Doubleday: Huntsville vs. Las Vegas

[aaronweiner]

Quick Info:


Las Vegas Record: 101-61
Las Vegas Run Differential: 826/622

Huntsville Record: 97-65
Huntsville Run Differential: 749/678


Head to Head:

The two teams split the season series down the middle, 6 games each, and Vegas outscored the Phantoms by a total count of 55-50, which is also down the middle. Nothing to be garnered from the games, either; all but two were within three runs and most were within two. There’s no correlation between the amount of scoring and who won the game, either.



Previously In The Playoffs:

Huntsville had to play into this round, and did by sweeping the New Orleans Crawdads in three close games. Huntsville has made the playoffs in seven of the past eight years, winning two titles in that time.

Las Vegas had the bye here, and they haven’t missed the playoffs since the year 2019, the longest consecutive streak in the BBA. They lost the Landis Memorial Series last year to Long Beach, their second appearance in three years.


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Overview:

Huntsville and Las Vegas never met in a Landis Memorial Series under the old alignment, but you get the feeling they would have eventually had it stayed in that format. If not for a very unlucky 2027 season, these would be the two teams with the longest consecutive playoff appearances in the league. There’s little question these are still two of the powerhouses in the league, and they’re going to need to go all out.

Not a lot of additional introduction necessary: let’s get to the matchups!



Hitting:

It’s a little lazy to say that Vegas’ offense is sublimely better than Huntsville’s because of a 100 run differential, basically the same difference between Huntsville and 9th place Havana. A little less lazy would be to point out that Alfredo Martinez missed 60 games and still posted the third-highest WAR among all batters in the BBA. You know the names already: Brewer, Ridder, Gulliver. It’s not as deep a lineup as the numbers say, but it’s a very strong core group and the role players do their jobs well enough to keep lineup continuity. Potential secret weapon: Alex Ramirez crushed Huntsville pitching this year. Vegas was just eighth in walks this year, but they also struck out the least.

Huntsville’s top talent isn’t as high end as Vegas’, but Fernando Moreno and Hunter Eisenhower are as consistent as it gets. Eisenhower missed a lot of time this year, and it’s not like they were getting a lot out of the corpse of Bucky Martinez. Ed Curry and Moreno raked Las Vegas this year. Curry’s not a household name, but he has a ton of talent, so it’s not out of the question for him to have a big series. Huntsville’s disadvantaged here, but not as much as you might think; they’re all about the Moneyball, so if they get base hits they’re very dangerous.

Both teams stole over 140 bases this year, neither of them very efficiently. Las Vegas was a little better at stealing and better at throwing out runners, but I wouldn’t expect this to be a huge advantage. The two teams were first and second in defensive efficiency; Huntsville seems slightly better there.



Pitching:

Speaking of well-known names, by now everybody knows the Huntsville rotation: Felipe Baez, Jose Cavazos, Gerardo Fajardo, Fernando Moran. None of the four had a WAR above 4.2 or below 3.0, which is also pretty normal for them. A hallmark of consistency, the group led the team to a first-place finish in runs allowed. Jorge Jimenez bounced back and had a big year as a bullpen innings eater; he could factor into this series. The Huntsville bullpen was solid but unspectacular this year, but Bob Sanderson is still as consistent as it gets, and there are few people who would question the group’s talent.

Vegas is led by two starting pitchers, something new, and something old. Gary Estes is the old; the potential Hall of Famer won 20 games for the first time since 2018 this season, and he’s as solid as they come in the rotation. The new is Sam Romero, who was above-average in his first full-season exposure in the rotation. Both pitchers can own a ballgame, but Estes’ consistent control will be a big key for Vegas against the Huntsville walk machines. The Hustlers will miss Philip Morris for this one, as the consistent 15-game winner could at the soonest make it back for the Landis; Gow Cho will have to step up. Vegas’ bullpen also doesn’t resemble the lockdown groups of recent seasons past, though Jesus Ramos looks to be a stud at the end of the pen.



Overall:

This isn’t an easy series to call, but if I had to choose a side (and this is my preview, after all), I’d take Huntsville in a close one. Their rotation depth and the fact that their offense could explode at any time sways me ever so slightly. Vegas has the better offense and could crush Huntsville’s good but not great staff beneath their heel, but I take some pause in the fact that Vegas drew a subpar amount of walks. In the other direction, I’m also bothered by the fact that Huntsville’s park is a good home run park.

I’m going to take Huntsville, but it’s anyone’s ballgame.


Prediction: Huntsville in 7.

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[ae37jr]

2 perennial powerhouses going toe to toe. My only prediction is that the loser blames the series on the "randomizer".

[allenr]

The randomizer is an asshat. True story.