The Long Way to Winning in Long Beach - '29 Surfers Preview

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The Long Way to Winning in Long Beach - '29 Surfers Preview

Post by Chey » Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:52 pm

Image Last year wasn't exactly an unqualified success for the Surfers - they still looked more like a tanking team than a resurgent one. This team has been wandering in the desert for my entire MBBA tenure, and a move to the coast isn't going to fix that overnight. Still, the young talent Lane put together in Tucson is going to be eager to make noise in Long Beach -- Lane has said that they're looking to crack .500 for the first time and start building momentum towards the franchise's first ever Landis Memorial appearance, and I don't think it's out of the question.

The Lineup

Catcher - Lane’s pair of Italian Stallions behind the plate split time a year ago, but this season the job belongs solely to young gun Ippolito Basaglia. He didn’t put up crooked numbers a year ago - .221/.320/.360 - but the right-hander gained some nice points of dev and should do some damage with his 6/7/8/7/7 ratings. He doesn’t split too badly against LHP either, so I wouldn’t expect Jeremy Cirolli to see much more than spot duty.

First Base - Jeff Hughes, a right-hander I know well from my Buffalo/Havana days, is the everyday starter here for reasons I can’t really see clearly. He’s great with the glove, but at first base you’re looking for offence and Hughes just doesn’t have it. Even backup spray-hitter Antonio Valentin would be an upgrade here in my opinion.

Second Base - Mauro Hernandez has the keystone vs. RHP, and his cousin Fred Hernandez takes over vs. LHP. They’re both more than capable with the glove, and Fred’s got a heckuva bat for a middle-infielder.

Third Base - I really like young lefty Raymond Aguilera at the hot corner - he OPS’d .869 a year ago and is off to a red-hot start in ’29. He’s never going to be a gold glove guy at third, but he’s adequate and the plus-bat vs. RHP more than makes up for it. His offence dries up against southpaws though, so expect to see a full platoon with Ricardo Guerra handling the lefties. Guerra’s a less impressive hitter but a little better with the glove, and between the two this spot in the lineup card is well filled.

Shortstop - The aforementioned Fred Hernandez spends most of his time at short, and he’s a definite strength for the Surfers. He put up nearly 5 points of WAR in ’28, and can probably be counted on for about the same this season. A very nice piece of the puzzle for Lane here, and he’s popular with the fans to boot. When Fred is covering for Mike at 2nd, look for super-sub Brieuc Becker vs. LHP — another nice piece for the Surfers that could end up stealing time from Mauro as well.

Outfield - The full-timers out here are were veteran Mike Love and rookie Carlos Gonzalez, but Love just went down for the season. He’s not the star he once was, so the Surfers ought to be able to make do without him — Gonzalez is the real king of the outfield in Long Beach. A lefty with 8 Contact, 9 Power and an 8 positional rating in RF, Carlos Gonzalez is going to be the marquee man for the future, and the future could be now. He didn’t blow up AAA like you’d want him to a year ago, but his ratings promise production in ’29.

The part-timers were youngsters Francisco Flores (vs. RHP) and Roman Reyes (vs. LHP), though they both thrive most against righties. I’d expect Lane to promote them both to regular service with Love gone, as they’re both reliable on both sides of the ball. He may decide to go shopping for more of a bat-first LFer, but it’s not a pressing concern. The wild card here is that last year's first overall draft selection Kade Cummins is just about ready to play in the bigs, and Lane will probably call him up mid-season to avoid Super 2 eligibility.

Designated Hitter - Spanish sllugger Pedro Burgos is the man here, and he ought to hit some bombs for the Surfers. Unfortunately he’s never approached the 41 he smashed for Vancouver and Birmingham in 2025, but he’s still a perfectly serviceable guy for this spot. I’d probably look for more of a cheapo option if all you’re getting is an OPS in the low .800s — it’s not nothing, but it’s nothing special from your DH — but this isn’t a bad choice either.

The Rotation

Esteban Gil is the man here. He led the league in ERA a year ago, taking home is first Steve Nebraska Award, and is a real contender to do it again. Expect 220ish innings of elite pitching from this guy. The rest of the innings are a little bit more of a question mark, though.

Science experiment Vicente Perez has been doing more with less (MOV and CON, that is) than almost any other pitcher in the big leagues. You keep expecting it to catch up with him but it just never does, and the former Blazer certainly came cheap, so this is a far better bet than it looks like on the surface. He’s not the real #2 on this staff, though — that’s the next guy.

Jose Lozano is another young gun with a marvellous arm, and while he’ll always play second banana to Gil, he’s a stud in his own right. 8/8/8 ratings with three strong pitchers is a real nice package, and even though he has yet to get that ERA below 4.00 at the ML level he’s a safe bet to do so this season. The 4 Stamina rating is a little bit of a concern, but he should be able to at least approach 200 innings and look good doing it.

The back-end guys are, y’know, back-end guys. Alfredo Salazar and Jesus Paez are 19 and 20 point guys, respectively, and at 7 points of Stamina each they should both be able to give good value for Lane as innings eaters. I have to be honest with you though, I’m not sure why he’d want them to be.

Bullpen

The reason I don’t see the point in giving Salazar and Paez 200+ innings each is this bullpen: he’s got eight rock solid arms in here, give them the ball! I know a lot of them struggled last year, but Bailey Attoehow, Jose Garcia, Eric Trujillo and Jose Feliz all have ratings that suggest they’re capable of closing out games. Stevie Wolarski is still kicking aorund in here too, and the knuckleballer looks as fresh as his rookie season.

If I were Lane, and probably knock down some of my pitch counts (3 of which are 120) and give my bullpen a chance to do their jobs. They really do look like they can handle the innings, and the last thing you want is to lose Gil to Tommy John surgery.

Conclusion

Well, they improved their record by 20 wins from '27 to '28, and the target is probably to claw back another 10 games in '29. I think that's probably within reach -- especially when you factor in their new division, which isn't exactly a weak sister but is a welcome reprieve from the Las Vegas Hustlers of the old FL Pacific. I really like their pitching, but there's just not enough firepower in that lineup for me to project the playoffs - let's say they crack .500 and finish with something like 82-80, with even better things on the horizon.
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Re: The Long Way to Winning in Long Beach - '29 Surfers Prev

Post by Lane » Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:15 pm

Thanks for the preview! I was hoping to keep Cummins down till late in the season, but the Love injury has forced my hand.

I may take your pitch count suggestion and run with it, seeing as I just lost Gil for a couple months.


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Re: The Long Way to Winning in Long Beach - '29 Surfers Prev

Post by Lane » Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:48 pm

I'm not going to harp on his protection of LBCs record, because those are impossible.... But he sure whiffed on the firepower in the lineup.


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