2023 FL Cartwright, ATC vs. Indy: Huge Heavyweight Bout

[aaronweiner]

Quick Info:

Indy Record: 105-57
Indy Run Differential: 834/613

Atlantic City Record: 91-71
Atlantic City Run Differential: 770/657


Head to Head:

Indy won the season series by a meager 5-4 count, but were outscored by the Gamblers 40-39 on the season series, including a September shellacking sweep by Atlantic City where the Gamblers outscored Indy 24-13. Advantage Gamblers.


Previously In The Playoffs:

Both teams won their last series in seven games, and both of them in very dramatic fashion. Both teams had to come from two runs down in the eighth inning or later, and both teams won the series in their last at-bat. Indy took out the New Orleans Crawdads, while Atlantic City downed favored Las Vegas.


Special: Odds Based on MY simulations

Considering the win differential, I have to favor Indy slightly in this one. However, I don't feel really good about it. Let's go with 4:5 Indy and even odds for Atlantic City and be done with it.


Overview:

Sometimes, these things just make sense. Welcome to a series between last year’s MBWBA Champions, the Atlantic City Gamblers, and the team with the best record in the MBWBA this season, the Indy Grasshoppers. If you’re looking for a marquee matchup, you’ve found it.

Because of the high profile of the series and the superstars present in this matchup, it’s difficult to simply attach a winner to this one. Both teams come in hungry, but while Atlantic City wanting to add another Landis Memorial Trophy to their hardware case, nobody is hungrier than Indy, who wants to win their first MBWBA title in the modern era and be taken seriously. This one could be the real Landis Memorial Series; let’s get to the matchup!


Hitting:

Indy absolutely shocked the world by finishing first in runs scored this year, but it’s not as stunning when you start to look at the pieces they’ve assembled. Indy had the most prolific home run trio in the league in Sergio Ramos, Doug Glover, and Chad Lawrence; no other teammates could match their 110 homers combined. But that’s only the beginning of the story. The Grasshoppers led the league in batting average, OBP, AND slugging percentage, and stolen bases just for good measure. This is a superior offense with no holes, but they managed to struggle against Atlantic City pitching anyway. Some very impressive Indy batters had bad years against the Gamblers: Ramos and Valeri Kharlamov, for example, were very poor against ATC this year.


Atlantic City’s offense is very much a Moneyball offense. They don’t hit for average, but they drew the most walks in the league by almost 100 over Carolina and were among a pack of teams in a close race for second in home runs. Admittedly, the team was just tenth in extra-base hits, so if the ball’s not flying over the fence, they might have trouble scoring. Atlantic City batters weren’t really all that impressive against Indy this year, either, with one exception: their ability to draw walks was unhampered by Indy’s otherwise outstanding pitching, which might bode well for them.


Both teams play outstanding defense, but it’s worth noting that Lewis Stephens isn’t particularly good at throwing out runners, so Indy – who stole bases at a reasonable 67% clip this year – might have a small advantage running, especially as neither Mingo Boone nor Gabriel Campos holds runners especially well.


Pitching:

Indy was in a virtual three-way tie for the league lead in runs allowed. Not one of their top starters had a serious problem against the Atlantic City offense this year; Indy’s top three starters, Kevin Lee, Eduardo Lopez, and Alfredo Salazar, all had a 2.25 ERA against them or better. However, Indy had just two decisions in those five starts, and it presents their weakness: their bullpen. The Grasshoppers finished with just the ninth-best bullpen ERA this year, and there isn’t one star among the group, though several of the group are adequate. Considering the close nature of many of these playoff games, Indy is potentially beatable through their pen.


Atlantic City will attempt to accentuate their positive again, no doubt, by using Gabriel Campos and Mingo Boone at least five times in this series. The two are still two of the best starters in either league and have to be taken quite seriously. Assuming their short rest doesn’t affect them, they can certainly hang with Indy’s pitching staff. Atlantic City’s bullpen is also better than Indy’s; they feature star closer Hani Tinsley among others, and they finished with the fourth-best bullpen ERA, far better than Indy’s.


Overall:

This one’s rough to call, especially considering the last round both teams had. The big question in this series will be whether Atlantic City’s pitching staff can continue to hold up, and whether or not the Grasshoppers’ offense can continue the outstanding play that marked their entire season. Indy is the more complete team, but I think ATC has the better top starters.

I’m going to go Indy on this one, but I don’t feel good about it.

Prediction: Indy in nine.

[hr]

[cheekimonk]

I hope you were being sarcastic about the nine. I don't think my nerves can handle more than a 7-game series.

[aaronweiner]

I hope you were being sarcastic about the nine. I don't think my nerves can handle more than a 7-game series.

I was going to say fifteen, but I didn't think the series would go the distance.

[Cliche]

Well me not using a 1-man rotation this round might help us out.

Indy will be a tough out. They're obviously a tremendous team.

[cheekimonk]

Well me not using a 1-man rotation this round might help us out.

Indy will be a tough out. They're obviously a tremendous team.

I saw you had set a 1-man rotation for the Doubleday. Seems it got good results there...