2023 Valencia vs. Brooklyn Doubleday: Underwhelming Clash

[aaronweiner]

Quick Info:


Valencia Record: 90-73
Valencia Run Differential: 680/637

Brooklyn Record: 83-79
Brooklyn Run Differential: 731/778


Head to Head:

Brooklyn won the season series 6-3 and won the run differential by 41-37, a margin that was way bigger until a July series where Valencia outscored Brooklyn 17-5. They haven’t played each other since July.


Previously In The Playoffs:

Brooklyn took Atlantic City to seven games in the Landis Memorial Series, eventually falling to the Gamblers but winning their first pennant in almost a decade. Valencia missed the playoffs for the first time in six years and just the second time in the last ten seasons.


Special: Odds Based on MY simulations

Yowsa. I have NO idea. Let's we put the vig, 10:11, on both teams and call it a day.


Overview:

Welcome to the series of so, so many warts. On the one side, Brooklyn, who won just 83 games and were outscored by almost fifty runs on the season but who are ALSO the reigning JL champs. On the other hand, we have a team that has made more postseasons in an ugly way than any other team that I can think of in history in the Valencia Stars, who themselves made the playoffs just two years ago with an underwater run differential.

These are the two worst teams by Pythagorean record in the playoffs by a fairly large margin, as their expected record based on run differential are easily the worst marks in the playoffs and their combined mark is below .500 on the year. It helps both squads that they hit home runs in bunches, of course; the two teams were first and second in homers this year.

Both teams are former pennant winners. Can Brooklyn, who made a mad rush to the playoffs with a 20-7 September, continue their quest for another title? Can Valencia finally break through and win their first title in the modern era? Is the Huntsville/Omaha series the real JLCS? One of these two teams is going to get a shot at a pennant in the next round.


Hitting:

In one of the most surprising events of the year, Valencia’s offense was turned around by the presence of Drew Zod, who was so bad in 2022 and looked so lost at the plate in April that he was waived by Halifax. However, in 131 games for Halifax, Zod hit 35 homers. Valencia’s free-swinging ways led to a league-leading 204 homers this year, and while the team wasn’t especially good at anything else offensively, they were at least average at everything. They also stole 152 bases, second most in the Johnson League.

Brooklyn actually led the Johnson League with a .761 OPS this year. Nothing to write home about; that seems to say more about the Johnson League than it does about Brooklyn, but first place is first place. Brian Whitten is one of the very best hitters in either league, and Davis Locke is one of the best third basemen around. Rob Childers isn’t quite the same dangerous hitter he was a year ago, but he’s still a good one. It’s worth noting that Brooklyn’s ballpark helps the team immensely; they were significantly better at home.

Valencia actually has a significant advantage defensively in this series, though you wouldn’t know it from the scoreboard; the teams tied for the largest margin between their team ERA and their runs allowed, both allowing about a third of an unearned run per game. In a seven game series, that’s about two runs; not enough to swing the series...probably. In practice, Brooklyn’s outfield defense is generally one of the worst in the league, they gave up the highest BABIP in the league, and Valencia’s defensive efficiency was very high this year.


Pitching:

Brooklyn ostensibly had maybe the worst pitching staff in the league this year, but there’s a lot to like there. Their outfield defense is brutal; Brooklyn gave up the highest number of hits and highest opposing batting average. However, they allowed just the sixth most walks, struck out the fifth most batters, and allowed the eighth most homers in a homer-friendly park. I’d put their “real” pitching performance somewhere below league average; bad for the JL, but not catastrophic. Their starting staff has a lot of ability, and while they allowed the 10th-worst ERA, guys like Joey Budding, Rick Ward, and Salvador Barron were all better than that total. Their bullpen is highly marginal, however, and difficult to trust.

The Stars also have a fair amount of talent in their rotation. Jose Leon is still a star, and Valencia also has a rising star in Ezechiele Mariotto. Tony Suarez lost a little bit of command due to a back injury earlier this year, but he’s still serviceable, and Valencia had one of the biggest surprises of this year with Pacio Bidet’s 10-3, 2.71 debut season. I’m not sure I’d trust Bidet in Brooklyn though! Valencia’s pen is better than Brooklyn’s. This is especially true because of superstar closer Skip Glendenning, who led the team in wins this season with a massive 17 and continued his possible run towards the Hall of Fame (he absolutely has my vote at this point). However, the rest of the Valencia pen isn’t that bad either.


Overall:

This is a bad matchup for Brooklyn; the Robins would have actually been better off facing off with the Omaha Barnstormers than the Stars. Valencia was the only team to outhomer Brooklyn in the Johnson League. They can hold with the Robins offensively in every way, even while Brooklyn’s offense is better. Brooklyn’s defense could cost them a game all by itself. It’s difficult to trust the Brooklyn bullpen, and their starters aren’t likely to pitch too many complete games.

I think these two teams would lose to ANY other playoff team in either league, but they’re playing each other, so I have to pick one to advance. I’m going Brooklyn; I’ll say that their pitching does just enough to keep them in ballgames and they outhit the Stars to advance; I think they’ll have an edge at home because Valencia’s top guys are a bit homer-prone. This one is so unpredictable, however, I almost feel uncomfortable choosing anyone.

Prediction: Brooklyn in six.

[hr]

[Ted]

I've got Valencia in six. I think the JLP was the better division this year. (Although Brooklyn's been so hot recently they can beat anyone). And Valencia would beat me in a series if their 1000-3 regular season record against Cal meant anything.

[aaronweiner]

I've got Valencia in six. I think the JLP was the better division this year. (Although Brooklyn's been so hot recently they can beat anyone). And Valencia would beat me in a series if their 1000-3 regular season record against Cal meant anything.

Literally just went with my gut on this one. I have barely an idea.

[agrudez]

Tough to vote for a sub .500 pyth - give me valencia in 5

Sent from my SM-S975L using Tapatalk

[Blue]

We're terrible. Escarceja being out is a big blow to our offence. Our pitching could be good enough.