2023 Vegas vs. ATC Doubleday: Can Vegas Break Through?

[aaronweiner]

Quick Info:


Las Vegas Record: 91-71
Las Vegas Run Differential: 699/609

Atlantic City Record: 91-71
Atlantic City Run Differential: 770/657


Head to Head:

Atlantic City won the season series 5-4, but lost the run differential to Las Vegas. The Hustlers outscored the Gamblers 30-29 over the nine game set despite losing more games.


Previously In The Playoffs:

Atlantic City and Las Vegas played it off in the Cartwright Cup. Atlantic City beat the Hustlers in that series in six games and went on to win their first MBWBA title.


Special: Odds Based on MY simulations

I’d set the odds for this series at 4:7 Las Vegas based on all the Hustlers' improvements this season, and about 3:2 for Atlantic City to win. This could go either way, but the smart money's on Vegas.


Overview:

Last year, we weren’t quite confident to anoint the winner of the Las Vegas/Atlantic City series the clear winner of the MBWBA title, and it proved to be mostly true: Atlantic City needed seven games to beat the Brooklyn Robins to win their first MBWBA title. This year, neither team is the favorite at all. Las Vegas made a hard charge (36-16 over their last 52 games) and multiple trades at the end of the season just to make the playoffs. Atlantic City led the FL Atlantic Division much of the year and then added Gabriel Campos to an already-strong ballclub.

Can Atlantic City become the first team since 2006 to win back to back titles? Can Las Vegas finally break through the playoff malaise they’ve suffered since 2019 and win their first pennant in 14 years? Neither franchise won a ton of regular season games, but these are clearly two of the top teams in the Frick League, where winning the FL pennant in recent history has meant that they went on to win the MBWBA title. One of these teams will go on to face New Orleans or Indy and get one step closer to that goal.


Hitting:

For a series that didn’t feature much run scoring, the Husters’ bats hit very well against Atlantic City’s pitching. Fred Hernandez and Marvin Slater didn’t hit the Gamblers, but everyone else hit at least .300 against them. There isn’t really one offensive star on the Hustlers; the star might be the ballpark and the division. I suppose most of us would take BFP and Hunter Eisenhower, but there isn’t a legitimate superstar among the bunch. The Hustlers left a ton of men on base against Atlantic City this year, a working average of about seven and a half per game. If those runners score, the Hustlers could win this in a walkover.


If it could be said that Las Vegas hit well against Atlantic City’s pitching but stranded runners, that cannot be said about the Atlantic City offense. Compared to their season-long numbers, only Lewis Stephens could be said to have hit well against them, but Antonio Sanchez and Ralph Bido did combine for five homers. The rest of the team looks downright ghastly against Las Vegas, and I do mean ghastly: the BEST OPS of any other Gambler against the Hustlers was a .517 mark. That’s way less than replacement level. Atlantic City’s trademark OBP for the most part simply fails against the Hustlers’ starters.


Both teams play outstanding defense, and there should be no significant advantage defensively on paper.


Pitching:

Want a marquee matchup? How about Mike Swanson and Manny Bautista against Mingo Boone and Gabriel Campos? Of the four, only Bautista hasn’t won a Steve Nebraska in the last four seasons. Deciding who has the edge in that matchup is a little bit like deciding between perfect steaks – I’d rather eat them both.


That said, I think I’d rather have Vegas’ pair, and I’d definitely rather have Gary Estes and Dave Wren against anyone else that Atlantic City can throw against them – but there’s no way that the Gamblers aren’t going three-man with Bertolameu Bolota, so we’ll see Campos and Boone a minimum of three times and as many as five in this series.


Where the comparison really splits is the bullpens. Vegas’ pen is ridiculous. Pedro Espin and Louis Tiant IV? And NEITHER is the closer? Their pen is probably the best since the Altavista/Juan German/Gary Wilson juggernaut pens of the Crawdads’ height, and it might be better than that one. So yes, Vegas has a clear advantage pitching.


Overall:


Oh, this one could be a blowout. Vegas has had trouble converting opportunities this year, but if they manage to break through against the Atlantic City pitching or manage to outduel the Gamblers’ top starters with their own superstars, this could be an awfully short series. That said, Atlantic City definitely has the horses to hang with the Hustlers and could make this into a series if they manage to draw walks and get on base the way they’ve done all year against everyone else. Vegas is a team on a mission this year, though; they’re out for blood, they sold off the farm to make it work, and they are the better team. The better team doesn’t always win. But I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t pick them.

Prediction: Vegas in six.

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[agrudez]

I'd say Bartolo Melendez is an offensive star in lv - and I'll also agree with them taking it in 6

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[Cliche]

Hoping we can prove this one wrong. Thanks for the preview!