2018 Johnson League Preview
Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:07 am
Welcome to your 2018 Johnson League Preview.
Cheatsheet:
Projected finishes:
JLA: Louisville, Halifax, Greenville, Brooklyn
JLM: Madison, Yellow Springs, Chicago, Omaha
FLP: Valencia, California, Hawaii, Vancouver
Wild card winner: California or Halifax. I think.
[hr]
Overview:
The Johnson League is now home to the most unlikely winner of a title we can remember, or maybe just since Atlantic City won it: the Halifax Hawks. While the Johnson has won just five of the last thirteen Landis Memorial Series and just two of the last seven, they’re also the league that currently holds the title.
There’s lots to watch in the Johnson League this year. Can Madison keep up their winning ways, or are they going to drop back to the pack? Louisville asserted themselves last year in a division that they should perennially own; is Halifax even close to knocking them off the division title perch anymore? Is Halifax even a playoff team – they weren’t until we reset the game? Is Valencia going to stay a contender? What about California and Yellow Springs, two teams that suffered huge disappointments? Will we have a surprise team make the playoffs?
Let's see who I jinx this year.
Note: All Gained/Lost players are through free agency unless otherwise indicated.
Note 2: The Johnson League not only won the MBWBA title, but they won twelve more games than the Frick League last year. Suck on that, Frick League! Despite this fact, I’m expecting the Frick League to win about 50 more games this year than the Johnson, in no small part because of the collapses of Omaha and Brooklyn.
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Johnson League Atlantic
Other preview:
Louisville Sluggers
Other preview:
Last year's record: 96-66, first, JLA (lost in Doubleday)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 806/627
Gained:
OF Emilio Rodriguez (rookie, probably)
C/DH Jorge Diaz (Rule 5)
SP/RP Bobby Guthrington (virtual rookie)
RP Gabriel Sabido (trade)
RP Luis Flores
RP Roberto Garza
Lost:
IF Alley Pie
SP Dan-sing Nancies
RP Stanley Price
Outlook:
Louisville got the very tough Valencia Stars in the first round of the 2018 playoffs, and were bounced out, but I’m pretty sure they’d prefer the current result over last year’s horrifying Pythagorean nightmare. Usually when I say something like this, every damn thing goes haywire with a team, but here it goes: I have no idea how this team isn’t going to make the playoffs in 2018.
The team is built on their offense, but don’t overlook their starting pitching staff, which is probably in the top quarter in the MBWBA. They have perhaps the league’s best lefty starter in Brian Walden, which is a huge plus. Their bullpen has gone from terrible to merely okay, but that’s a huge improvement considering the disaster area they had when they went to the Landis just three seasons ago.
Their offense is excellent by any metric, and by our reckoning, they’re adding wunderkind Emilio Rodriguez this year who ought to make an erratic defense better. Not sure what they were doing bringing back Jorge Diaz – didn’t anyone tell them he can’t field? – but their offense should not have problems this year.
This team is young, talented and will probably sneak back under the cap next year by getting rid of Charlie Schaffer this offseason. Louisville should be a lock for at least a wild card in 2018.
Projected Record: 94-68
[hr]
Halifax Hawks
Other preview:
Last year's record: 91-71, second, JLA (Won MBWBA Championship)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 811/758
Gained:
SP Steve Hoffman (full year)
Lost:
Really nobody of any consequence.
Outlook:
Here’s what I wrote last year about Halifax: Their chances to contend rely heavily on Mike Love’s ability to step forward, Juan Garcia’s reluctance to fall back, decent numbers from a very weak pitching staff and big numbers from guys like Diego Moreno and Richard Poe.
Mike Love: 6.3 WAR. Juan Garcia: .919 OPS. Richard Poe: 4.1 WAR. Diego Moreno: 5.1 WAR. All four players were in the top 30 in OPS+ last season. Add a true #1 starter, Triple Crown winner Steve Hoffman, and the rest, as they say, is history, as Halifax won the first MBWBA Championship in modern team history.
The interesting thing is that many of the structural problems with this team have been paved over by an extremely good lineup and Hoffman, but they still exist below the surface. Halifax still has one of the worst bullpens in the MBWBA. Larry Morgan and Norm Young are highly suspect fourth and fifth starters. Their farm, which was #1 in the majors last year, is now 22nd (though I think that’s way underrated).
None of that will matter as long as the top four hitters and Lewis Stephens, who was just outside the top 30, and Bernardo Becerra, who didn’t have enough at bats to qualify, and JJ Abrams, who might improve this year, are terrorizing opposing batters and Steve Hoffman both stays healthy and goes (and this is not a typo) 16-0 again. I’m logically skeptical of ALL of those things happening the same way again. Their powerful offense alone will keep them from a losing record, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this team miss the playoffs this year. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them win another title. Keep in mind that a projection of 86 wins would have given them a tie for the wild card last year, so this projection doesn’t necessarily follow the conclusion they’ll miss the playoffs.
Projected Record: 87-75
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Greenville Moonshiners
Other preview:
Last year's record: 70-92, third, JLA, missed playoffs
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 736/832
Gained:
SP Dan-sing Nancies
LF Carroll Phillips
RP James Endres
RP Dennis Tolbert
OF Mark Davis
Lost:
OF Al Jones
Outlook:
According to the numbers, other than Carolina, no team improved as much as Greenville did this offseason – and that includes the horrifying -2 WAR that OF Mark Davis put up last year. It’s possible to conclude no team got better than the Moonshiners this offseason. Is that enough to push them back up into wild card contention?
Call me a skeptic, though it’s hardly out of the realm of possibility. For starters, runaway Sawyer Silk Award winner Bruce Wayne will almost certainly never, ever, ever have a season like that ever again. Add to that the fact that the offense revolves largely around four players and is highly suspect outside the four, albeit very good players: Wayne, Doug Glover, Martin Felix and Jorge Hernandez.
The pitching staff isn’t quite such a rosy situation. Antonio Estrada is still one of the best pitchers in the league under 30, and the team might get a nice shot in the arm from former top pick Angel Ramirez. Dan-sing Nancies and Monty Gaines round out a good starting four, but the bullpen is very weak. Like the lineup, it’s a tale of two pitching staffs.
This is the type of team that finishes below .500. Not to be Captain Obvious, but they need to wrap up Estrada this year and start getting a farm together, because their cap situation is pretty much screwed in tight for the next three years and they’ll need some cheap players. Like Halifax, this team is pretty good at the top, though not quite as good as the Hawks, and they’re rotten at the bottom. Lightning in a bottle aside, this team’s finishing third.
Projected Record: 76-86
[hr]
Brooklyn Robins
Other preview:
Last year's record: 66-96, third, JLA, missed playoffs
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 717/782
Gained:
RP Lyenour Graves
Lost:
SP Jason Brooks
SP Phil Briggs
RP Jonathan Sorensen
Yada, yada, yada.
Outlook:
This is going to sound stupid, but Brooklyn might have actually benefited from not having an owner this offseason. Bear with me. Any time a new owner takes over a team, they want to put their fingerprint on the team. I’m going to tear this team to pieces, they say. Or this is MY guy, they say. They go out and spend money. They start to believe their own lies about contention and magical seasons and how underrated all their players are, or how bad the team is and how it’s time to immediately rip the whole thing to shreds.
Now that they have an owner, the first one’s happened: this team has been completely disheveled. Right now, Brooklyn is pretty bad. I’ve checked twice, and they literally have zero offensive players that are significantly above average on offense at this writing – and not SO many that are average. They did have a number of pitchers that are good, but few of them are left on the team.
The team has shed $30 million so far, but as far as I can tell, they’ve left themselves nothing around which to rebuild. I just hope the brand new management is in it for the long haul, because this team is going to be awfully damn bad for a while. They ought to challenge Vancouver this year for the worst record in the Johnson League.
Projected Record: 59-103
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Johnson League Midwest
Other preview:
Madison Wolves
Other preview:
Last year's record: 95/67
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 728/623
Gained:
CF Frank Harris
1B Jose Cardoza
SS Alley Pie (rookie)
3B Marcos Limon (rookie)
P Miguel Flores (rookie)
OF Miguel Rodriguez (rookie)
Lost:
3B Shawn McClure (retired)
RF John Holland
CF Roosevelt Parrish
Outlook:
OK, with all due respect: I can’t believe the money that Madison threw at Frank Harris this offseason. Well, okay, maybe I can: Madison had all kinds of cap space and correctly discerned that they were extremely unlikely to need much pitching, so they loaded up the truck. *Thinks* Actually, it might have been the right move.
Why? Because the Wolves are not just projected to be wildly profitable, they’re basically a complete team. That’s a big deal in the Johnson League, where just having a complete team can guarantee a playoff spot. They do have issues in the bullpen, but their lineup is now fully stocked by prospects getting ready, this team has a clear bridge beyond Cricket and Bopper, and Miguel Flores ought to solve a lot of the bullpen issues himself, not to mention Tiant as a killer closer.
We’re seeing 90 wins again for Madison, which ought to be enough in the JL Midwest, but we’ll temper the expectations somewhat.
Projected Record: 92-70
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Chicago Black Sox
Other preview:
Last year's record: 86-76, second, JLM (missed playoffs)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 686/676
Gained:
Nobody
Lost:
RP John Edwards
Outlook:
Welcome to a fantastically interesting team, new guy. This is the sort of team that you think you want to tear down because there are so, so many pieces to sell. Then you start to think: I have the best 1-2-3 punch in the MBWBA in the bullpen, a rotation that features rising star Terrence Miller and Antonio Rodriguez, and, well...
Oh, you noticed I hadn’t mentioned the offense yet?
Chicago has virtually nothing on offense. Walter Uno, their best player, decided to screw the team over by lumping immediately after signing a long-term deal; he’s still usable but he’s hardly worth what he’s about to be paid. And he MIGHT BE THE BEST PLAYER OFFENSIVELY THEY HAVE. Bart Lavigne can still set the table, and Tim Parsons and Jake Norton are both pretty solid players. And Matthew Stuart somehow hit 34 homers for the second consecutive year. But they’re going to need a lot to go right this year if they’re going to contend.
I can’t see this being a losing ballclub, because the pitching staff is legitimately good, and I’m a believer in Fernando Nava, even if the game isn’t yet. This Chicago team is extremely proficient defensively, and they can pitch, and I can see them winning 85 games this year and contending for the wild card. Maybe. If they made a deal or two for offense (maybe Freddie Rigsby?) they might have a better chance.
Projected Record: 83-79
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Omaha Barnstormers
Other preview:
Last year's record: 80-82, third, JLM (missed playoffs)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 707/638
Gained:
SS Harley Stendall (Rule 6)
RP Riley Palmer
Lost:
SP Jerome Powell
IF Paul Petitjean
IF Ron Holmes
RP Paul White
RP Barnabus Stinson
Outlook:
By expected record, Omaha should have made the playoffs instead of eventual champion Halifax. Instead, Omaha was at home with an 80-82 record, basically the same as last year. So, is Omaha going to have a big bounce back year in 2018?
Well, according to the game, nobody’s lost more ground than Omaha has this offseason, having a whopping, massive -13.8 WAR differential over last year’s team. The loss is a bit overstated because it doesn’t include the gain of Stendall, which should be significant, or Riley Palmer, which could make a difference. But, I mean, golly: Jerome Powell, Paul Petitjean, Ron Holmes, Paul White. (The losses of Felipe Arroyo and Loran Wakefield were tautological because of lumping.)
Lynn Stanley and Stuart Pearce might be plusses for them this year or might not play for them this year at all. And their cleanup hitter is Ignacio Rubio. They don’t have one single plus starting pitcher at this point, as demonstrated by them using Pearce and Rafael Gonzalez in the rotation. This team is a filthy mess, and it’s hard to see how they aren’t going to lose 90 games this year, barring another very lucky year like last year.
Projected Record: 70-92
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Yellow Springs Nine
Other preview:
Last year's record: 80-82, last, JLM (missed playoffs)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 742/627
Gained:
Nothing.
Lost:
Nothing.
Outlook:
We talk a lot about how Buffalo received a massive screw job from the reset, but we forget about the team that lost the most in the reset: the Yellow Springs Nine. Yellow Springs lost in the Cartwright Cup in 2016, and in 2017, they were hoping to make it back to the playoffs to make some noise: well, in a different lifetime, they won their team’s first ever pennant.
Can Yellow Springs contend this year? Yes, they can. Let’s start with the obvious fact that Bo Jordan could carry any team on his back for a while, and the most complete hitter in the game should be very good again. Benjamin Franklin Pierce ought to be more productive than last year, while the team has a number of very reasonable hitters but not a lot of power outside of Jordan. They’re also very solid defensively.
The pitching staff is uninspiring but very decent nonetheless. They may have the best closer in the game in Pedro Espin, and they have some very solid pitchers in the rotation like Mingo Boone and Elijah Stuart. Their bullpen has some depth issues, though Ramon Barbosa ought to bounce back this season. One name to remember: Emilio Nabo, who came out of nowhere to become a prospect, then crapped the bed last year; he’s a lot better than that.
I’d expect Yellow Springs back in the wild card mix, since I’m projecting the wild card to be about 85-88 wins this year and the Nine are certainly capable of that.
Projected Record: 83-79
[hr]
Johnson League West Division
Valencia Stars
Other preview:
Last year's record: 95-67 (First, FLM, lost in Cartwright Cup)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 772/644
Gained:
IF Juan Gonzalez
RF Rickard Gerg
IF David Williams
C Leonardo Rosa (rookie)
Lost:
SP Mike Boggie
SP Maxwell Johnson
OF Carlos Quick
Outlook:
Valencia should have really made the playoffs two years ago, but bad luck and bad play sunk them. They left nothing to chance this year: everyone noticed that Valencia made it back to the playoffs, but I wonder how many noticed they did it with the most wins in franchise history since 1996? With the exception of Maxwell Johnson, who’s clearly seen better days, and Mike Boggie, who threw only 70 innings for Valencia (and is an injury risk), it’s basically the same cast of characters as they had last season.
That’s probably a good thing. Valencia was the Carolina of the Johnson League; they’re the only team, in fact, that drew more walks than the Kraken. That said, they were the only team in either league to hit below 120 home runs, and they don’t appear to have improved in that department – that despite having a fairly solid home run park (if one that depresses offense overall). The horrifying collapse of Jared Stuart isn’t helping, but the man can still play defense and hit a few out of the park.
It will be an interesting season this year, as Valencia has a near majority of their roster in contract decision years. I don’t predict a runaway division winner this year, but they still could win the thing assuming California doesn’t have a major rebirth season.
Projected Record: 90-72
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Hawaii Tropics
Other preview:
Last year's record: 80-82
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 649/728
Gained:
CF Roosevelt Parrish
Lost:
CF Juan Heredia
Disaster/OF Mark Davis
Outlook:
Nobody finished further ahead of their Pythagorean record in the Johnson League than the Hawaii Tropics, whose offense was basically just about as bad as advertised but whose pitching was good enough to keep them in ballgames. For a while, they were a lot better than that; nobody benefited more record-wise from the reset than the Tropics did by rewinding to May, though they had to go through the agony of watching their team collapse all over again.
The Tropics have a wonderful #1 starter in Christopher Pump, Jr., and a superior 1-2 punch in the pen, and they got a fantastic season out of Joe Miller, who really has no business being that good. Past that, I don’t see a lot there; Francisco Salinas didn’t embarrass himself in five starts and Chris Lee wasn’t bad at all.
Furthermore, their offense is pathetic. Don’t take my word for it: exactly one player on the team had a WAR above 1 if you don’t count rental Juan Heredia. That player, Bryan Vogel, had a .278 OBP - not a typo. The team’s highest qualifying OBP was SS Sam Hampton, whose .313 OBP was still six points below league average. It’s worth noting that Hawaii finished with a .294 team OBP, which, while not the only such mark below .300 last year was the lowest; this despite a park that slightly encourages offense.
Now, don’t get me wrong; Hawaii could catch lightning in a bottle and finish respectably – but I feel like they did that LAST year, when they finished seven games above their expected record. Their second half collapse was huge. I’m charitably predicting the same record for them, but they’d benefit from starting to reorganize this team and build a farm.
Projected Record: 72-90
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California Crusaders
Other preview:
Last year's record: 75-87, first, JLP (won pennant, lost in Landis)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 703/563
Gained:
1B Bob Ritchie (returned from injury)
C Jared Carpenter (rookie)
Lost:
2B Moon Jetson
RP Maurice Goodgame
Outlook:
What a ghastly, terrible season for the California Crusaders. In the first incarnation, the Crusaders fought back to lose a one-game playoff for the wild card; in the second, California didn’t even sniff the playoffs. The interesting thing is that short Moon Jetson, they’re basically the same team they’ve been for seasons now.
The loss of Bob Ritchie last year really hurt, as he’s really their best on-base threat, but a lot of other calamities happened at the same time to the lineup: Rob Cramer turned to dust despite no loss of skill, Jorge Castillo didn’t quite do it, nearly every role player was a bust, Juan Alvarado couldn’t hit his weight. The only things that went right are blessings in disguise, perhaps: Arlen O’Rourke played well but doesn’t really have a lineup spot and Armando Rosales was his normal self.
I went on that long about the offense because, simply, California might still have the best starting rotation in the MBWBA outside Buffalo. Their bullpen is just okay at best, but the starting pitching is still top of the line. I can’t imagine that every single one of those disasters will happen to the Crusaders this year, and they have the pitching staff to keep them in any ballgame at any time. I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Crusaders contend for the wild card this year and hit 200 homers or better, even while they seemingly lack a second baseman altogether.
Projected Record: 88-75
[hr]
Vancouver Mounties
Other preview:
Last year's record: 64-98
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 564/927
Gained:
RP Herbert Coolen
RP Paul Mullins
Lost:
RP Sean McVeagh
CF Norris Morgan
Outlook:
In what can only be termed progress (I think), Vancouver finished with a JL-worst 98 losses but successfully avoided 100 losses for the first time since 2013. Baby steps, I suppose. I’m firmly of the belief they can find the century mark again this year, and could be a helluva lot worse than that. Don’t believe me? Vancouver is currently sporting a – get this - $32 million player payroll. Just to be clear, if every player on the 27-man roster were making the minimum, they’d be making $13 million, so they’re about $20 million over the absolute minimum.
Who is Vancouver’s #1 starter? It could be Jeremy Alexander, who didn’t start a game last year. It could be Clint Babbitt, who actually wasn’t a complete nightmare. It could be Bertolameu Bolota if he develops. Our pick is nobody. They might have three or four good bullpen pitchers. They also might not.
Their offense leaves a lot to be desired, though there are interesting pieces like William Kidd, Ken Gould, Jacob Bryant, Steven Parker, and Royce Robinson. Zach Rouse probably isn’t nearly that bad. No top players other than maybe Kidd, but scrappy.
Vancouver has begun to build through the draft, and their farm system is actually pretty good at this point, rated middle of the pack, but there are lots of good pieces down there. Patience, time, more patience, more time, and a lot of apologies to their fan base later, and a lot – and I mean a lot – of #1 or #2 overall picks after this one, and we might start to see the dial move a little bit.
Projected Record: 55-107
[hr]
Cheatsheet:
Projected finishes:
JLA: Louisville, Halifax, Greenville, Brooklyn
JLM: Madison, Yellow Springs, Chicago, Omaha
FLP: Valencia, California, Hawaii, Vancouver
Wild card winner: California or Halifax. I think.
[hr]
Overview:
The Johnson League is now home to the most unlikely winner of a title we can remember, or maybe just since Atlantic City won it: the Halifax Hawks. While the Johnson has won just five of the last thirteen Landis Memorial Series and just two of the last seven, they’re also the league that currently holds the title.
There’s lots to watch in the Johnson League this year. Can Madison keep up their winning ways, or are they going to drop back to the pack? Louisville asserted themselves last year in a division that they should perennially own; is Halifax even close to knocking them off the division title perch anymore? Is Halifax even a playoff team – they weren’t until we reset the game? Is Valencia going to stay a contender? What about California and Yellow Springs, two teams that suffered huge disappointments? Will we have a surprise team make the playoffs?
Let's see who I jinx this year.
Note: All Gained/Lost players are through free agency unless otherwise indicated.
Note 2: The Johnson League not only won the MBWBA title, but they won twelve more games than the Frick League last year. Suck on that, Frick League! Despite this fact, I’m expecting the Frick League to win about 50 more games this year than the Johnson, in no small part because of the collapses of Omaha and Brooklyn.
[hr]
Johnson League Atlantic
Other preview:
Louisville Sluggers
Other preview:
Last year's record: 96-66, first, JLA (lost in Doubleday)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 806/627
Gained:
OF Emilio Rodriguez (rookie, probably)
C/DH Jorge Diaz (Rule 5)
SP/RP Bobby Guthrington (virtual rookie)
RP Gabriel Sabido (trade)
RP Luis Flores
RP Roberto Garza
Lost:
IF Alley Pie
SP Dan-sing Nancies
RP Stanley Price
Outlook:
Louisville got the very tough Valencia Stars in the first round of the 2018 playoffs, and were bounced out, but I’m pretty sure they’d prefer the current result over last year’s horrifying Pythagorean nightmare. Usually when I say something like this, every damn thing goes haywire with a team, but here it goes: I have no idea how this team isn’t going to make the playoffs in 2018.
The team is built on their offense, but don’t overlook their starting pitching staff, which is probably in the top quarter in the MBWBA. They have perhaps the league’s best lefty starter in Brian Walden, which is a huge plus. Their bullpen has gone from terrible to merely okay, but that’s a huge improvement considering the disaster area they had when they went to the Landis just three seasons ago.
Their offense is excellent by any metric, and by our reckoning, they’re adding wunderkind Emilio Rodriguez this year who ought to make an erratic defense better. Not sure what they were doing bringing back Jorge Diaz – didn’t anyone tell them he can’t field? – but their offense should not have problems this year.
This team is young, talented and will probably sneak back under the cap next year by getting rid of Charlie Schaffer this offseason. Louisville should be a lock for at least a wild card in 2018.
Projected Record: 94-68
[hr]
Halifax Hawks
Other preview:
Last year's record: 91-71, second, JLA (Won MBWBA Championship)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 811/758
Gained:
SP Steve Hoffman (full year)
Lost:
Really nobody of any consequence.
Outlook:
Here’s what I wrote last year about Halifax: Their chances to contend rely heavily on Mike Love’s ability to step forward, Juan Garcia’s reluctance to fall back, decent numbers from a very weak pitching staff and big numbers from guys like Diego Moreno and Richard Poe.
Mike Love: 6.3 WAR. Juan Garcia: .919 OPS. Richard Poe: 4.1 WAR. Diego Moreno: 5.1 WAR. All four players were in the top 30 in OPS+ last season. Add a true #1 starter, Triple Crown winner Steve Hoffman, and the rest, as they say, is history, as Halifax won the first MBWBA Championship in modern team history.
The interesting thing is that many of the structural problems with this team have been paved over by an extremely good lineup and Hoffman, but they still exist below the surface. Halifax still has one of the worst bullpens in the MBWBA. Larry Morgan and Norm Young are highly suspect fourth and fifth starters. Their farm, which was #1 in the majors last year, is now 22nd (though I think that’s way underrated).
None of that will matter as long as the top four hitters and Lewis Stephens, who was just outside the top 30, and Bernardo Becerra, who didn’t have enough at bats to qualify, and JJ Abrams, who might improve this year, are terrorizing opposing batters and Steve Hoffman both stays healthy and goes (and this is not a typo) 16-0 again. I’m logically skeptical of ALL of those things happening the same way again. Their powerful offense alone will keep them from a losing record, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this team miss the playoffs this year. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them win another title. Keep in mind that a projection of 86 wins would have given them a tie for the wild card last year, so this projection doesn’t necessarily follow the conclusion they’ll miss the playoffs.
Projected Record: 87-75
[hr]
Greenville Moonshiners
Other preview:
Last year's record: 70-92, third, JLA, missed playoffs
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 736/832
Gained:
SP Dan-sing Nancies
LF Carroll Phillips
RP James Endres
RP Dennis Tolbert
OF Mark Davis
Lost:
OF Al Jones
Outlook:
According to the numbers, other than Carolina, no team improved as much as Greenville did this offseason – and that includes the horrifying -2 WAR that OF Mark Davis put up last year. It’s possible to conclude no team got better than the Moonshiners this offseason. Is that enough to push them back up into wild card contention?
Call me a skeptic, though it’s hardly out of the realm of possibility. For starters, runaway Sawyer Silk Award winner Bruce Wayne will almost certainly never, ever, ever have a season like that ever again. Add to that the fact that the offense revolves largely around four players and is highly suspect outside the four, albeit very good players: Wayne, Doug Glover, Martin Felix and Jorge Hernandez.
The pitching staff isn’t quite such a rosy situation. Antonio Estrada is still one of the best pitchers in the league under 30, and the team might get a nice shot in the arm from former top pick Angel Ramirez. Dan-sing Nancies and Monty Gaines round out a good starting four, but the bullpen is very weak. Like the lineup, it’s a tale of two pitching staffs.
This is the type of team that finishes below .500. Not to be Captain Obvious, but they need to wrap up Estrada this year and start getting a farm together, because their cap situation is pretty much screwed in tight for the next three years and they’ll need some cheap players. Like Halifax, this team is pretty good at the top, though not quite as good as the Hawks, and they’re rotten at the bottom. Lightning in a bottle aside, this team’s finishing third.
Projected Record: 76-86
[hr]
Brooklyn Robins
Other preview:
Last year's record: 66-96, third, JLA, missed playoffs
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 717/782
Gained:
RP Lyenour Graves
Lost:
SP Jason Brooks
SP Phil Briggs
RP Jonathan Sorensen
Yada, yada, yada.
Outlook:
This is going to sound stupid, but Brooklyn might have actually benefited from not having an owner this offseason. Bear with me. Any time a new owner takes over a team, they want to put their fingerprint on the team. I’m going to tear this team to pieces, they say. Or this is MY guy, they say. They go out and spend money. They start to believe their own lies about contention and magical seasons and how underrated all their players are, or how bad the team is and how it’s time to immediately rip the whole thing to shreds.
Now that they have an owner, the first one’s happened: this team has been completely disheveled. Right now, Brooklyn is pretty bad. I’ve checked twice, and they literally have zero offensive players that are significantly above average on offense at this writing – and not SO many that are average. They did have a number of pitchers that are good, but few of them are left on the team.
The team has shed $30 million so far, but as far as I can tell, they’ve left themselves nothing around which to rebuild. I just hope the brand new management is in it for the long haul, because this team is going to be awfully damn bad for a while. They ought to challenge Vancouver this year for the worst record in the Johnson League.
Projected Record: 59-103
[hr]
Johnson League Midwest
Other preview:
Madison Wolves
Other preview:
Last year's record: 95/67
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 728/623
Gained:
CF Frank Harris
1B Jose Cardoza
SS Alley Pie (rookie)
3B Marcos Limon (rookie)
P Miguel Flores (rookie)
OF Miguel Rodriguez (rookie)
Lost:
3B Shawn McClure (retired)
RF John Holland
CF Roosevelt Parrish
Outlook:
OK, with all due respect: I can’t believe the money that Madison threw at Frank Harris this offseason. Well, okay, maybe I can: Madison had all kinds of cap space and correctly discerned that they were extremely unlikely to need much pitching, so they loaded up the truck. *Thinks* Actually, it might have been the right move.
Why? Because the Wolves are not just projected to be wildly profitable, they’re basically a complete team. That’s a big deal in the Johnson League, where just having a complete team can guarantee a playoff spot. They do have issues in the bullpen, but their lineup is now fully stocked by prospects getting ready, this team has a clear bridge beyond Cricket and Bopper, and Miguel Flores ought to solve a lot of the bullpen issues himself, not to mention Tiant as a killer closer.
We’re seeing 90 wins again for Madison, which ought to be enough in the JL Midwest, but we’ll temper the expectations somewhat.
Projected Record: 92-70
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Chicago Black Sox
Other preview:
Last year's record: 86-76, second, JLM (missed playoffs)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 686/676
Gained:
Nobody
Lost:
RP John Edwards
Outlook:
Welcome to a fantastically interesting team, new guy. This is the sort of team that you think you want to tear down because there are so, so many pieces to sell. Then you start to think: I have the best 1-2-3 punch in the MBWBA in the bullpen, a rotation that features rising star Terrence Miller and Antonio Rodriguez, and, well...
Oh, you noticed I hadn’t mentioned the offense yet?
Chicago has virtually nothing on offense. Walter Uno, their best player, decided to screw the team over by lumping immediately after signing a long-term deal; he’s still usable but he’s hardly worth what he’s about to be paid. And he MIGHT BE THE BEST PLAYER OFFENSIVELY THEY HAVE. Bart Lavigne can still set the table, and Tim Parsons and Jake Norton are both pretty solid players. And Matthew Stuart somehow hit 34 homers for the second consecutive year. But they’re going to need a lot to go right this year if they’re going to contend.
I can’t see this being a losing ballclub, because the pitching staff is legitimately good, and I’m a believer in Fernando Nava, even if the game isn’t yet. This Chicago team is extremely proficient defensively, and they can pitch, and I can see them winning 85 games this year and contending for the wild card. Maybe. If they made a deal or two for offense (maybe Freddie Rigsby?) they might have a better chance.
Projected Record: 83-79
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Omaha Barnstormers
Other preview:
Last year's record: 80-82, third, JLM (missed playoffs)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 707/638
Gained:
SS Harley Stendall (Rule 6)
RP Riley Palmer
Lost:
SP Jerome Powell
IF Paul Petitjean
IF Ron Holmes
RP Paul White
RP Barnabus Stinson
Outlook:
By expected record, Omaha should have made the playoffs instead of eventual champion Halifax. Instead, Omaha was at home with an 80-82 record, basically the same as last year. So, is Omaha going to have a big bounce back year in 2018?
Well, according to the game, nobody’s lost more ground than Omaha has this offseason, having a whopping, massive -13.8 WAR differential over last year’s team. The loss is a bit overstated because it doesn’t include the gain of Stendall, which should be significant, or Riley Palmer, which could make a difference. But, I mean, golly: Jerome Powell, Paul Petitjean, Ron Holmes, Paul White. (The losses of Felipe Arroyo and Loran Wakefield were tautological because of lumping.)
Lynn Stanley and Stuart Pearce might be plusses for them this year or might not play for them this year at all. And their cleanup hitter is Ignacio Rubio. They don’t have one single plus starting pitcher at this point, as demonstrated by them using Pearce and Rafael Gonzalez in the rotation. This team is a filthy mess, and it’s hard to see how they aren’t going to lose 90 games this year, barring another very lucky year like last year.
Projected Record: 70-92
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Yellow Springs Nine
Other preview:
Last year's record: 80-82, last, JLM (missed playoffs)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 742/627
Gained:
Nothing.
Lost:
Nothing.
Outlook:
We talk a lot about how Buffalo received a massive screw job from the reset, but we forget about the team that lost the most in the reset: the Yellow Springs Nine. Yellow Springs lost in the Cartwright Cup in 2016, and in 2017, they were hoping to make it back to the playoffs to make some noise: well, in a different lifetime, they won their team’s first ever pennant.
Can Yellow Springs contend this year? Yes, they can. Let’s start with the obvious fact that Bo Jordan could carry any team on his back for a while, and the most complete hitter in the game should be very good again. Benjamin Franklin Pierce ought to be more productive than last year, while the team has a number of very reasonable hitters but not a lot of power outside of Jordan. They’re also very solid defensively.
The pitching staff is uninspiring but very decent nonetheless. They may have the best closer in the game in Pedro Espin, and they have some very solid pitchers in the rotation like Mingo Boone and Elijah Stuart. Their bullpen has some depth issues, though Ramon Barbosa ought to bounce back this season. One name to remember: Emilio Nabo, who came out of nowhere to become a prospect, then crapped the bed last year; he’s a lot better than that.
I’d expect Yellow Springs back in the wild card mix, since I’m projecting the wild card to be about 85-88 wins this year and the Nine are certainly capable of that.
Projected Record: 83-79
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Johnson League West Division
Valencia Stars
Other preview:
Last year's record: 95-67 (First, FLM, lost in Cartwright Cup)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 772/644
Gained:
IF Juan Gonzalez
RF Rickard Gerg
IF David Williams
C Leonardo Rosa (rookie)
Lost:
SP Mike Boggie
SP Maxwell Johnson
OF Carlos Quick
Outlook:
Valencia should have really made the playoffs two years ago, but bad luck and bad play sunk them. They left nothing to chance this year: everyone noticed that Valencia made it back to the playoffs, but I wonder how many noticed they did it with the most wins in franchise history since 1996? With the exception of Maxwell Johnson, who’s clearly seen better days, and Mike Boggie, who threw only 70 innings for Valencia (and is an injury risk), it’s basically the same cast of characters as they had last season.
That’s probably a good thing. Valencia was the Carolina of the Johnson League; they’re the only team, in fact, that drew more walks than the Kraken. That said, they were the only team in either league to hit below 120 home runs, and they don’t appear to have improved in that department – that despite having a fairly solid home run park (if one that depresses offense overall). The horrifying collapse of Jared Stuart isn’t helping, but the man can still play defense and hit a few out of the park.
It will be an interesting season this year, as Valencia has a near majority of their roster in contract decision years. I don’t predict a runaway division winner this year, but they still could win the thing assuming California doesn’t have a major rebirth season.
Projected Record: 90-72
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Hawaii Tropics
Other preview:
Last year's record: 80-82
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 649/728
Gained:
CF Roosevelt Parrish
Lost:
CF Juan Heredia
Disaster/OF Mark Davis
Outlook:
Nobody finished further ahead of their Pythagorean record in the Johnson League than the Hawaii Tropics, whose offense was basically just about as bad as advertised but whose pitching was good enough to keep them in ballgames. For a while, they were a lot better than that; nobody benefited more record-wise from the reset than the Tropics did by rewinding to May, though they had to go through the agony of watching their team collapse all over again.
The Tropics have a wonderful #1 starter in Christopher Pump, Jr., and a superior 1-2 punch in the pen, and they got a fantastic season out of Joe Miller, who really has no business being that good. Past that, I don’t see a lot there; Francisco Salinas didn’t embarrass himself in five starts and Chris Lee wasn’t bad at all.
Furthermore, their offense is pathetic. Don’t take my word for it: exactly one player on the team had a WAR above 1 if you don’t count rental Juan Heredia. That player, Bryan Vogel, had a .278 OBP - not a typo. The team’s highest qualifying OBP was SS Sam Hampton, whose .313 OBP was still six points below league average. It’s worth noting that Hawaii finished with a .294 team OBP, which, while not the only such mark below .300 last year was the lowest; this despite a park that slightly encourages offense.
Now, don’t get me wrong; Hawaii could catch lightning in a bottle and finish respectably – but I feel like they did that LAST year, when they finished seven games above their expected record. Their second half collapse was huge. I’m charitably predicting the same record for them, but they’d benefit from starting to reorganize this team and build a farm.
Projected Record: 72-90
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California Crusaders
Other preview:
Last year's record: 75-87, first, JLP (won pennant, lost in Landis)
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 703/563
Gained:
1B Bob Ritchie (returned from injury)
C Jared Carpenter (rookie)
Lost:
2B Moon Jetson
RP Maurice Goodgame
Outlook:
What a ghastly, terrible season for the California Crusaders. In the first incarnation, the Crusaders fought back to lose a one-game playoff for the wild card; in the second, California didn’t even sniff the playoffs. The interesting thing is that short Moon Jetson, they’re basically the same team they’ve been for seasons now.
The loss of Bob Ritchie last year really hurt, as he’s really their best on-base threat, but a lot of other calamities happened at the same time to the lineup: Rob Cramer turned to dust despite no loss of skill, Jorge Castillo didn’t quite do it, nearly every role player was a bust, Juan Alvarado couldn’t hit his weight. The only things that went right are blessings in disguise, perhaps: Arlen O’Rourke played well but doesn’t really have a lineup spot and Armando Rosales was his normal self.
I went on that long about the offense because, simply, California might still have the best starting rotation in the MBWBA outside Buffalo. Their bullpen is just okay at best, but the starting pitching is still top of the line. I can’t imagine that every single one of those disasters will happen to the Crusaders this year, and they have the pitching staff to keep them in any ballgame at any time. I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Crusaders contend for the wild card this year and hit 200 homers or better, even while they seemingly lack a second baseman altogether.
Projected Record: 88-75
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Vancouver Mounties
Other preview:
Last year's record: 64-98
2018 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 564/927
Gained:
RP Herbert Coolen
RP Paul Mullins
Lost:
RP Sean McVeagh
CF Norris Morgan
Outlook:
In what can only be termed progress (I think), Vancouver finished with a JL-worst 98 losses but successfully avoided 100 losses for the first time since 2013. Baby steps, I suppose. I’m firmly of the belief they can find the century mark again this year, and could be a helluva lot worse than that. Don’t believe me? Vancouver is currently sporting a – get this - $32 million player payroll. Just to be clear, if every player on the 27-man roster were making the minimum, they’d be making $13 million, so they’re about $20 million over the absolute minimum.
Who is Vancouver’s #1 starter? It could be Jeremy Alexander, who didn’t start a game last year. It could be Clint Babbitt, who actually wasn’t a complete nightmare. It could be Bertolameu Bolota if he develops. Our pick is nobody. They might have three or four good bullpen pitchers. They also might not.
Their offense leaves a lot to be desired, though there are interesting pieces like William Kidd, Ken Gould, Jacob Bryant, Steven Parker, and Royce Robinson. Zach Rouse probably isn’t nearly that bad. No top players other than maybe Kidd, but scrappy.
Vancouver has begun to build through the draft, and their farm system is actually pretty good at this point, rated middle of the pack, but there are lots of good pieces down there. Patience, time, more patience, more time, and a lot of apologies to their fan base later, and a lot – and I mean a lot – of #1 or #2 overall picks after this one, and we might start to see the dial move a little bit.
Projected Record: 55-107
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