Madison Wolves 2018 Preview: Still On the Scent.

[Cliche]

GM: Chris Wilson (1801-1277, .585.) 2 LMS Championships.
Last Season: 95-67 (.586), 1st Place JLM.

Playoff appearances have been sparse for the Wolves in recent years, after their juggernaut run from '97-'09. Last year saw their first playoff appearance in five seasons, although they did win 92 games while missing in 2014. I'm here to take a look under the hood and see if we've got another rising wolfpack in the JLM, some old dogs hanging on for a run, or a one-off that isn't repeatable.

Offseason Additions

3B Alley Pie (trade)
CF Frank Harris (free agency)
1B Jose Cardoza (free agency)

A trio of new faces. Pie is a young infielder who has a bit of an odd skillset. I'm not really sure what position Chris envisions for him long-term. Is he just going to work a utility role? I certainly wouldn't trust a 6 IF range for very long at second or short. He's a decent all-around hitter with a little pop though, so he could be useful. Harris is a masher and if he's slated for CF then Chris definitely has different defensive philosophies than I do. Harris was once a decent option in center but his career numbers are heading in a bad direction and his CF rating is down to a 6. He's definitely going to hit some homers wherever he plays. Cardoza is an veteran who doesn't move the needle much at first but as a lefty bench bat he can be a nice add. Not a guy I'd want playing a ton of second base unless I was desperate though.

Offseason Subtractions

3B Shawn McClure (retirement)
CF Roosevelt Parrish (free agency)
OF John Holland (free agency)
1B Skookum Mason (free agency)

They'll miss McClure's ridiculous defense but not his declining bat. Likewise Parrish, who held down CF nicely last year. Mason can crush lefties and Holland is still a useful righty, but neither loss is all that pivotal to the Wolves chances in 2018 at first glance. I'm a little more worried about the defense they lost, so we'll see how that was addressed further down.

Extensions

SP Peter Bryant 13.5 million over 3 years.

Rotation

1. RHP Sinclair Kooijman (7/8/9)
2. RHP Peter Bryant (7/9/7)
3. RHP Andy Martin (7/7/7)
4. RHP Glenn Bryant (6/7/8)
5. RHP Jose Aicon (8/5/9)

Overall a pretty young group. Aicon is 30, and the only guy older than 26. He, Andy Martin and Peter Bryant are the established vets here, all having shown that they can be good ML starters. Being able to pencil in three guys for at worst league average seasons and most likely above average is pretty good, especially when none of those guys is your most talented arm on paper. That'd be Kooijman who has a shot at being a legit ace. He's still polishing the talent, but he was solid transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation last year. A full year as a starter should do him good. If he can seize the role of #1 the Wolves will be in very good shape here. Even if he struggles somewhat, they've got a good foundation of pitching to keep the boat from sinking. Glenn Bryant isn't quite as good as Peter, but he's a nice prospect who could turn into a pretty solid #3-level SP long term.

The good thing is if there are struggles or injuries, the Wolves have guys like Mark Burns and Ramon Farias that they can pull out of the bullpen if need be. That's good (and young and cheap) depth that most teams don't have.

Bullpen

1. LHP Luis Tiant IV (10/7/8)
2. RHP Miguel Flores (9/8/8)
3. RHP Ramon Farias (5/9/7)
4. RHP Darryl Robinson (9/8/6)
5. LHP Jay Lee Jr. (6/7/7)
6. RHP Guillermo Gomez (10/9/3)
7. RHP Mark Burns (7/7/7)

This is a mighty impressive bullpen. Tiant has bounced from starter to reliever over the years, thanks to his "borderline" tag. I think I like him better as a dominant closer than an up and down starter. Especially since he can probably work 100-plus innings easily enough if you leverage the workload right. He's joined by one of the latest graduates of the Madison prospect factory, Miguel Flores. Flores is going to be a GREAT reliever in this league for a lot of years. He's also got a ton of stamina, so he should carry a heavy workload when needed. When you've got two studs eating up so many of the high-leverage innings, it gets really easy to build a good bullpen. But the Wolves have depth too. Robinson is a good solid arm, and I think both Farias and Burns will be quite effective working middle relief roles. Jay Lee should prove capable as a second lefty, and Gomez has been effective despite his wild tendencies.

Infield

C. RHB Cam Adams (7/8/9/1/5)
C. RHB Crash N. Thome (5/7/9/3/3)
1B. LHB Tome Lopez (5/8/9/6/4)
2B. RHB Raul De La Cruz (6/5/4/5/7)
3B. LHB Marcos Limon (6/5/9/3/6)
SS. RHB Alfonso Rodriguez (7/7/6/6/6)
IF. LHB Jose Cardoza (6/6/5/7/4)
IF. LHB Bopper Kengos (5/5/6/3/8)

Adams will do three things. He will hit the ball. He will hit it hard. And he will swing and miss. It can lead to some year-to-year inconsistency, but you can also bank 50-plus extra-base hits and (generally) a .270-plus average. I'd happily take that from my catcher. Thome is a free-swinger who provides pop off the bench when Adams needs a day off.

Lopez is a vet who hits the ball really far. He's surpassed 30 homers in three of the last four years, and is a good bet to repeat that again in 2018. Cardoza can spell him at first when needed.

The other three infield spots are a little muddled to me, and it leads me to think that Chris has decided he can't worry as much as he'd like about defense this year. De La Cruz and Rodriguez are both solid middle infielders, but neither is great at shortstop at this point. I'm a little surprised that youngster Limon wasn't groomed to play second, given his infield skills. As it stands he will add yet another masher to the Wolves lineup, making a quick transition to the majors after skipping Triple-A entirely. Rodriguez is a solid hitter wherever he ends up. The legendary Bopper Kengos is around to teach the kids how to play baseball, but not much more at this stage.

Outfield/DH

LF. LHB Billy Beauford (7/7/4/5/7)
CF. SHB Frank Harris (6/5/9/5/5)
RF. LHB Andrew Ivey (10/6/1/4/10)
OF. RHB Anthony Lynch (6/5/7/2/5)
OF. RHB Michael Shaffer (7/5/1/3/7)
DH. LHB Charles Puckett (7/7/6/9/5)

Further indications that the defense is being punted, at least somewhat. It seems like Harris is the best bet to start in CF, with Shaffer relieving him as needed. I love Ivey's skills and he's proving to be very productive for a Madison team that really needs his high average/OBP skill. Harris adds another heavy bat, and Beauford is solidly productive. Puckett now mans the DH spot, as he moves into the final stage of his career. He still gets on base like crazy and has enough pop to scare pitchers. He'll be very important to this lineup and as such the Wolves chances in 2018.

The Future

SP Cap Morgan (6/9/7 talents)
SP Tom Young (7/7/8 talents)

With several other prospects (Limon, Flores, Pie, etc) having graduated, these are the best of the rest. A couple of nice potential arms but also a ways off. Nice to know there's still something in the pipeline though.

Outlook For 2018

This is a pretty talented club. The rotation looks rock solid. The bullpen looks very deep and talented. The offense is a little light on OBP, but I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 200 homeruns as a team. I'm curious to see if the defense becomes an issue during the year. I tend to be a stickler for it, but heck I had a .319 BABIP last year with a good (on paper) defense. So who knows. If they can survive being non-optimal at a few spots, they're going to run over some teams with strong pitching and a power-based attack. I feel like only injuries or just a horrid BABIP can derail a return to the postseason.

Prediction: 97-65, 1st Place JLM.

[trmmilwwi]

Great writeup, love the format (I may steal some of it..). The Wolves will be a very interesting team to watch this season... I am hoping that I can leverage a few wins off of them with a small ball and groundball pitching approach. We'll see if it sets up that way. That bullpen is tough... teams will need to get to them early or not at all.

[7teen]

Nice write-up Ryan, I think you pretty much nailed how I feel about this team.

Defense won't be much of a focus. I will be shifting Pie to shortstop where I'm sure his 6 rating will cause some issues. Same goes for Harris in CF with his 6 defense rating. I try to keep some defensive replacements as reserves for late game situations.

I'm pretty high on my pitching, especially the depth. I lack a true top of the rotation starter but can go with about 8 different guys in the rotation. Their job will be made a lot easier if the big 3 in the pen can shut the door late in games. In other words, set pitch counts low, quick hook late in games, turn it over to Gomez, Florez, and Tiant for the wins.

[Rubaboo]

My favorite thing about Miguel 'Slider' Flores is that he doesn't actually have a slider.

[7teen]

My favorite thing about Miguel 'Slider' Flores is that he doesn't actually have a slider.

I actually told myself today that I should pay the PP and change his nickname.

[bigmike13]

Excellent writeup!

[Cliche]

Thanks guys, Madison was a fun team to preview. Lots of talent and some young guys who should improve.

[crobillard]

Great preview and format. Excellent stuff here. I wish I had a bullpen that good!