2063 Monty Brewster Preview

[Bob Breum]

Here is a position-by-position breakdown of the matchups between these two juggernauts.

POSITION PLAYERS

Charm City ranked sixth in the JL with 783 runs scored and fifth in wOBA (.322). They ranked first in zone rating (+42.0) and defensive efficiency (.712).
Nashville ranked fourth in the FL with 803 runs scored and sixth in wOBA (.323). They ranked second in zone rating (+43.7) and defensive efficiency (.709).

The following analysis is based on the premise that Charm City will continue to field an entirely left-handed rotation and that Nashville will roll out a fully right-handed rotation.* The batting stats shown are vRHP for Charm City and vLHP for Nashville. I've used wRC+ as an offensive metric because it is park adjusted and is not a counting stat like WAR. Similarly, I've chosen EFF as the defensive metric for all but catchers.

CATCHER

Charm City Edgardo Reyes, .283/333/.431, 399 PA, 22 2B, 10 HR, 98 wRC+, +6.1 FRM, Blocking/Framing/Arm 8/8/7

Nashville David Lopez, .202/.275/.385, 120 PA, 5 2B, 5 HR, 77 wRC+, +2.2 FRM, Blocking/Framing/Arm 9/9/5

Advantage: Charm City. Both catchers hit far better against pitchers of the other hand. Reyes should win the JL Silver Slugger.

FIRST BASE

Charm City Jose Cardoza (L), .333/.418/.464, 483 PA, 27 2B, 9 HR, 129 wRC+, 1B rating 8, EFF 1.039

Nashville Erik Vatne, .276/.312/.517, 10 2B, 6 HR, 115 wRC+, 1B rating 11, EFF 1.016

Advantage: Charm City

SECOND BASE

Charm City Dave Ackerman, .231/.310/.457, 253 PA, 3 2B, 15 HR, 23/24 SB, 94 wRC+, 2B rating 12, EFF 1.045

Nashville Lucas McNeill, Jr., .421/.478/.684, 23 PA, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5/7 SB, 198 wRC+, 2B rating 11, EFF 1.061

Advantage: Tossup. Ackerman has struggled against right-handed pitching this season. McNeill, Jr., has hit well in his extremely small sample size as the short side of Nashville's platoon.

THIRD BASE

Charm City Ayyad Faisal (L), .259/.327/.423, 387 PA, 28 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 42/45 SB, 92 wRC+, 3B rating 11, EFF 1.038

Nashville Francisco Calderon, .331/.422/.566, 161 PA, 4 2B, 8 HR, 155 wRC+, 3B rating 8, EFF 1.021

Advantage: Nashville. Faisal is a glove-first base stealing threat with a weak bat. Calderon feasts on southpaws.

SHORTSTOP

Charm City Lucio Guevara (S), .289/.334/.394, 341 PA, 12 2B, 7 HR, 90 wRC+, SS rating 9, EFF 1.038

Nashville Brooks Eliot, .286/.288/.357, 156 PA, 71 wRC+, SS rating 10, EFF 1.027

Advantage: Charm City

LEFT FIELD

Charm City Ramon Rodriguez (L), .257/.348/.463, 158 PA, 10 2B, 6 HR, 110 wRC+, LF rating 8, EFF .993

Nashville Carter Cramer (S), .313/.392/.557, 148 PA, 6 2B, 8 HR, 6/7 SB, 145 wRC+, LF rating 12, EFF 1.044

Advantage: Nashville. Rodriguez spent most of the season on the injured list with a torn labrum. He is not the same guy who hit 60 HR in 2061. Cramer only played half the season because Nashville buried him in AAA for some reason, but he's a star in the making. He loves hitting off southpaws.

CENTERFIELD

Charm City Emilio Reyes, .259/.312/.339, 418 PA, 21 2B, 69 wRC+, CF rating 9, EFF 1.036

Nashville Crissy Tingle (L), .256/.317/.302, 142 PA, 70 wRC+, CF rating 11, EFF 1.065

Advantage: Nashville

RIGHT FIELD

Charm City Kazunari Chikafuji (S), .215/.281/.344, 12 2B, 11 HR, 24/28 SB, 62 wRC+, RF rating 6, EFF 1.018

Nashville Alfonso Gonzales, .314/.424/.620, 165 PA, 8 2B, 10 HR, 19/25 SB, 165 wRC+, RF rating 8, EFF 1.043

Advantage: Nashville. Chikafuji was once a force in the middle of the Jimmies lineup but the 34-year-old is declining fast. Gonzales is a beast but especially a monster against southpaws. He is expected to win the FL Silver Slugger.

DESIGNATED HITTER

Charm City Arturo Perez (L), .276/.355/.589, 462 PA, 29 2B, 31 HR, 137 wRC+

Nashville Fernando Sanchez, .246/.316/.542, 136 PA, 8 2B, 9 HR, 117 wRC+

Advantage: Charm City. Nashville seems like a National League team that just realized that they have to find someone to be their designated hitter in the playoffs. Perez should win the JL Silver Slugger.


ROTATION

Charm City ranked 1st in the BBA with a 3.48 ERA. Nashville had a 24-10 (.706) record against left-handed starters.

Hector Silva (L), 21/30 QS, 2.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.44 SIERA, 0.7 HR/9, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Ian Tolley (L), 20/32 QS, 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4.09 SIERA, 0.8 HR/9, 6.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
John Mellon (L), 11/32 QS, 3.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.20 SIERA, 0.8 HR/9, 6.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9
Allen Davidson (L), 20/32 QS, 3.59 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 4.20 SIERA, 1.0 HR/9, 6.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Nashville ranked 4th in the BBA with a 3.68 ERA. Charm City had a 67-39 (.632) record against right-handed starting pitching.

Bin-ying Yen, 16/25 QS, 3.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3.58 SIERA, 0.8 HR/9, 7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Eric Stevens, 15/32 QS, 3.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.99 SIERA, 1.1 HR/9, 9.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Armando Ortiz, 15/32 QS, 3.82 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.77 SIERA, 1.1 HR/9, 5.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Juan Ramirez (L), 11/12 QS, 2.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 4.03 SIERA, 1.0 HR/9, 6.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

*Nashville lost Javier Basante, their #3 starter, in game three of the Cartwright Cup. He has been diagnosed with a dead arm and is out for Brewster Series. His presumed replacement is southpaw Juan Ramirez, who started 12 games this season. Charm City had a 41-15 (.732) record against left-handed starters this season, but Ramirez is not your average southpaw. His 2.76 ERA ranks first in the BBA among pitchers who have started at least 12 games; he recorded a quality start in 11 of his 12 starts.

ADVANTAGE: Tossup. Hector Silva is expected to take home his fifth Steve Nebraska Golden Arm Award


BULLPENS

Charm City ranked first in the BBA with a 2.59 ERA. Nashville ranked fifth with a 3.57 ERA.

BACKEND

Charm City

Evgeny Partyka, 44/46 SV, 1.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.87 SIERA, 0.4 HR/9, 8.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Seung-jin Cho, 2.49 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.91 SIERA, 0.7 HR/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Miguel Reyes (L), 2.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.75 SIERA, 0.5 HR/9, 7.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9

Nashville

Giustino Modica, 28/33 SV, 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.23 SIERA, 1.1 HR/9, 9.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9
Carlos Williams, 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.55 SIERA, 0.8 HR/9, 8.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
Jose Torres (L), 12/19 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.29 SIERA, 0.5 HR/9, 8.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9

The teams employ different philosophies to finish out games. Charm City uses a traditional approach, employing a closer and a pair of L/R setup men. Nashville uses a triumvirate of stoppers, one of whom is left-handed, that hurled over 250 innings among them.

Advantage: Charm City. If they can get the ball to Partyka, the game is over. He is expected to win the JL Reliever of the Year award.

FRONT END

Charm City has two right-handed middle relievers and a left-handed long reliever, all with sub-3.0 ERAs. Starting pitcher Jorge Nava, a rightie, is also in the pen for the playoffs.

Nashville has three middle relievers, including two southpaws. Walt Thomas, the rightie, has been lights out, with a 1.88 ERA over 57 innings. Joseph James has been strong, posting a 2.46 ERA across 87 innings; Chris Rader not so much, with a 3.53 ERA in 43 innings and 6.4 BB/9.

Advantage: Tossup


SUMMARY

These two teams are a case study on how to build a champion. They prioritize starting pitching and defense. Offense is solid but unremarkable.

The left-handed vs right-handed rotations make for an interesting story, although Nashville will likely be forced to include a southpaw in the rotation with the injury to Basante. Both teams feature very strong bullpens but Partyka is the Mariano Rivera in this scenario. He may be the difference maker.

Charm City has home field to start the series.

I'll take Charm City in six with two Hector Silva wins and four Partyka saves. It's a winning formula.

[Graham]

Outstanding...can't wait for this to unfold.

[BaseClogger]

I don’t understand the shade thrown at Nashville for DH. Sanchez can rake.

[jiminyhopkins]

Yeah, seems like Sanchez's numbers are wrong in the article.

Perfect Talons player, future 50HR season(s).

EDIT: ahh crap, should have read deeper. Seems like the stats were based on vsL. Still a massive power threat that any team (except shoeless) would love to have. And a big HR or two can have a massive impact in a playoff series. See Gibson, Kirk or Carter, Joe.

[Dington]

Yeah, I’m quite alright with Sanchez.

[DaveB]

Good read

[trmmilwwi]

Kirk Gibson... ugh. As a huge A's fan that was very disappointing. Sanchez could join that list for me... if he has that big of a moment.

[Bob Breum]

I don’t understand the shade thrown at Nashville for DH. Sanchez can rake.

Nashville uses a 1B/DH platoon of sorts. Against RHP, Sanchez plays 1B and Akeem Joffer DHs. Against LHP, Sanchez DHs and Erik Vatne plays 1B.

Sanchez does indeed rake against RHP, to the tune of .305/.369/.629 with 27 2B and 35 HR and a 152 wRC+, as the team's 1B.

The Nashville DH "platoon" of Joffer and Sanchez puts up these numbers:

vRHP .239/.298/.400, 480 PA, 14 2B, 6 3B, 15 HR, 86 wRC+
vLHP .219/.295/.490, 112 PA, 5 2B, 7 HR, 102 wRC+

DHs have one mission, but these two do not strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.

I fully expect Sanchez to have this article taped to the door of his locker as motivation. It is always an oddity for a player to have a reverse platoon. Sanchez's ratings do not reveal a platoon factor, other than even more power vLHP. But in 913 career BBA PA, he has a wRC+ of 129 vRHP and 116 vLHP. This is his first season where he has been a full time player and it is likely to be an aberration, but for this article I am using this season's statistics.

[Bob Breum]

Yeah, seems like Sanchez's numbers are wrong in the article.

Actually, they are incorrect. They were inflated because I inadvertently included his time in AAA. Here are the corrected numbers:

.219/.295/.490, 5 2B, 7 HR, 102 wRC+

[Bob Breum]

And a big HR or two can have a massive impact in a playoff series. See Gibson, Kirk or Carter, Joe.

Or Mazeroski, Bill. My poor father never got over it.

[BaseClogger]

Platoon splits are notoriously susceptible to small sample sizes. I wouldn’t be concerned about Sanchez handling LHP. His ratings indicate it’s just small sample noise.