2024 Atlantic City Gamblers

[agrudez]

2023 Season:
91-71 record, lost to Indy in 7 in the Cartwright

Offseason Subtractions:
C Lewis Stephens

Offseason Additions:
N/A

Offseason Synopsis:
Is Lewis Stephens a young man? No. Was he going to play at a high level for much longer? Probably not. Was he going to resign with Atlantic City this offseason? Who knows? Was he expensive and did the Gamblers need to get under the salary cap? Yes. None of those questions matter in this context. The only one that does? Was Stephens a consistently great player (5, 4.2, 4.2 and 4.9 WAR in the last 4 seasons) for AC and will his loss be eminently felt in 2024? The answer to that is a resounding yes.

2024 Lineup:
Even without Stephens it’s not all doom and gloom in the Gambler’s lineup (he was replaced by the great Liam Dunn after all! /sarcasm), though. They still have the bash brother duo of Bido and Sanchez whom are good for 80 HRs combined a year. They also have elite defense up the middle with Garcia, Kidd and Moulin – all 3 of which have respectable bats for their positions (with Garcia looking to rebound from a dismal offensive ’23 season). The rest of the lineup is uninspiring, though. It features the aforementioned Dunn, whom will be lucky to turn a positive WAR on the season and a bunch of likely platoons that will hope to scrape by with mediocrity in the corners and at the hot corner. Can an offense with 2 elite bats and a bunch of interchangeable parts score enough runs to consistently win? That will be defining question of the Gambler’s season.

2024 Pitching:
The two names headlining the Gambler’s rotation should need no introduction at this point. Boone and Campos are both legitimate aces. The rest of the rotation; however, most certainly needs an introduction. Bolota is a nice #3 that has consistently outperformed his ratings (Southpaws’ for the win!) and Paez is a talented youngster that will hopefully grow into his role as the season progresses (though there may be some growing pains), but Galvan should not be a ML pitcher – let alone a starter. In the ‘pen there is a lot of fungibility™ - like most teams – until you get to the back, which features two of the best in the ‘biz in Tinsley and Johnson.

2024 Prediction:
This might be the most top-heavy roster in the league. You have 2 legit mashers and then a bunch of guys praying for .700 OPS’ in the lineup. You have 2 legit aces, a solid #3, and then two guys who are over their heads in ML roles. You have an elite 8-9 combination and then… well, it’s actually a pretty fine bullpen for the most part – no one is 6 closers deep, after all. I mean, they’re going to win a bunch of games that Campos and Boone start… and probably a decent amount that Bolota does, but unless Paez has some mid-season development I can’t imagine their offense is going to be enough to have winning records with their #4 and 5 guys on the mound. That is why the loss of Stephens is so hard. It isn’t just that you lost a 5 WAR player and replaced him with a potential negative WAR one. It’s that you took a lineup 3 bats deep and made it 2. Prime year David Ortiz and Barry Bonds would have a tough time racking up RBIs with 7 guys with .300 OBPs filling out the rest of their lineup. They probably have enough to pull out a > .500 record – even in the tough FL – and that may be enough to compete in the conference’s weakest division, but if they don’t edge the Kraken, I don’t see any chance they steal a WC.

82-80 – 2nd place in the FLA, no playoffs