61.086– Prospect Watch – First Base

[RonCo]

Off Topic

2061 Season Snapshot


Everyone can find a first baseman, right? Big, luggy guys who can hit the ball hard and whose defensive contribution consists of playing catch. They are a dime a dozen, goes the saying. That’s probably fair, too. The draft has been full of passable corner infielders and outfielders. Like everyone, I assume, Bikini has our share of interesting guys lined up to take the role when Mike McLure is done with it—which, as McClure is getting through his cost controlled years, could be moderately soon.

So, let’s take a look at them, shall we?


#1 – Guillermo Arce

Guillermo Arce (1B)	Age	OVR	CON	BABIP	AvK	GAP	POW	EYE
Level: AA	21	35/45	7/7	6/6	7/7	5/5	5/6	5/5
Age: 21	*	IFR	IFE	IFA	TDP	OFR	OFE	OFA
Bats-Throws: R/R	*	3	3	1	3	3	2	3
Height: 6'0"	*	SPD	AGR	STE	RUN	CBK	CFR	CAR
Weight: 200	*	1	2	2	1	1	1	1
Source: DR59.3

Arce has been a fun little player as he’s made his way up the organization structure. Drafted in the third round in 2059, he’s just been a solid hitter everywhere he’s gone. He’s almost fully developed now, at 21, needing only a top-off on the power as far as the raw “bars” goes. Even down a notch he blasted 15 homers in AA this year. He gives me that “steady pro” vibe. The kind of guy I can plug in at $500K for three years and who then quietly goes about making 2.5-3.5 WAR as he gets along with the super-stars around him. I like those kinds of guys.

And who knows? He’s only 21. Maybe he’ll bump a bit and become one of those guys who can do 3.5-4.5 WAR. I like those even more.


2062 Projection: A full year in AAA, unless we need him on the Atoll.


#2 – Mauro Oksuzian

Mauro Oksuzian (1B)	Age	OVR	CON	BABIP	AvK	GAP	POW	EYE
Level: A	20	35/50	6/8	5/6	8/9	5/6	4/5	4/5
Age: 20	*	IFR	IFE	IFA	TDP	OFR	OFE	OFA
Bats-Throws: R/R	*	3	7	2	1	2	5	1
Height: 6'1"	*	SPD	AGR	STE	RUN	CBK	CFR	CAR
Weight: 200	*	2	4	5	3	1	1	1
Source: DR60.7

To be honest, I kind of like Oksuzian better than Arce. If his power were to bump a notch, that “kind of” would go away. He came to the club from fairly deep in the 2060 draft, and has been slowly bumping ever since. Will that continue? I don’t know. But at 20 he just dropped a .297/.379/.395 slash on A-ball opponents, and the future looks interesting. I grade him down relative to Arce simply because—while he is obviously developing—he still has a way to go.


2062 Projection: A full year in AA.


#3 – Ares Xanthos

Ares Xanthos (1B)	Age	OVR	CON	BABIP	AvK	GAP	POW	EYE
Level: AAA	24	40/45	4/5	4/5	5/5	4/4	6/7	8/9
Age: 24	*	IFR	IFE	IFA	TDP	OFR	OFE	OFA
Bats-Throws: R/R	*	3	1	3	4	2	2	4
Height: 6'2"	*	SPD	AGR	STE	RUN	CBK	CFR	CAR
Weight: 200	*	4	2	4	6	1	1	1
Source: D55.14

I fully admit I do not know what to make of Ares Xanthos. His development path has been way up and way down. Perhaps, to put a slant on it, he’s “just” an excitable Greek” at heart. The end result of his development is that he’s never really put numbers up that you’d like to see from a first baseman. But the scouts still drool and scratch their heads. If he fills those last notches of the 7/9 Power/Eye combo, and the 5 contact comes in, that’s a bat that can play.

He’s 24, though. Time to dev is now. Given that he came from the 14th round in 1955, I admit I’m cheering for him, but it’s fair to say that Father Time is suggesting that if that development doesn’t finish now, Xanthos’s spot as #3 on this list will probably go to free fall.


2062 Projection: A “final” pass in AAA?


#4 – Burt Nesmith

Burt Nesmith (1B)	Age	OVR	CON	BABIP	AvK	GAP	POW	EYE
Level: SA	20	20/50	4/6	2/5	5/7	5/6	6/7	3/3
Age: 20	*	IFR	IFE	IFA	TDP	OFR	OFE	OFA
Bats-Throws: R/R	*	3	4	2	1	3	2	3
Height: 6'9"	*	SPD	AGR	STE	RUN	CBK	CFR	CAR
Weight: 210	*	3	2	2	4	1	1	1
Source: DR58.2

There is a not totally unreasonable argument that Nesmith should be #1 on this list. I don’t agree with that argument totally, but I would see it. With a little development luck, Nesmith could turn into a true stud. That said, we’re living partly in the real world here, and in our world he’s a “50” rated first baseman with an asterisk.

Nesmith is another of our guys who got a very early start, drafted out of high school as a 16-year-old back in 2058, then spending two seasons floundering against older opponents before finding a 15-HR swing in 46 starts as a 19 year-old. Promoted to Short-A Port au Prince this year, his numbers were not as good as that, but passable. He’s solid defensively, and most scouts are saying that if he could take a walk his ceiling would be considerably raised.


2062 Projection: A Full Season in A


#5 – Miguel Torres

Miguel Torres (1B)	Age	OVR	CON	BABIP	AvK	GAP	POW	EYE
Level: R	20	20/40	3/7	3/6	4/8	3/4	3/3	3/4
Age: 20	*	IFR	IFE	IFA	TDP	OFR	OFE	OFA
Bats-Throws: L/R	*	5	4	4	4	4	3	3
Height: 6'1"	*	SPD	AGR	STE	RUN	CBK	CFR	CAR
Weight: 190	*	2	4	1	1	1	1	1
Source: DR58.13

Some would argue that International Complex denizen Abdullah bin Mu'awiyah and his 7-rated Power should be on the Top 5 List. I can’t really argue against that, but the development risk of an 18 year old in the IC is more tenuous than that of a 20-year-old who has been in Rookie Ball for a bit. That said, Torres’ time here has been as rocky as you might expect a 13th round pick selected as a 16-year-old would be.

Torres is 20 now, though. He’s had two seasons as a primary starter, neither of which has been as productive as his coaches suggest they needed to be. At present he’s looking like an odd-man out.


2062 Projection: Assuming Abdullah bin Mu'awiyah arrives from the IC (or if another prospect arrives) a Full Season in short-A Port au Prince. Time is ticking, though. Perhaps the 7/8 Contact/AvK can make him a low-grade trade chip?

[BaseClogger]

“Burt Nesmith” is a ball players name.