61.094 - Prospect Watch - Starting Pitchers

[RonCo]

Off Topic

2061 Season Snapshot


The rotation is where it all happens, right? It's tough to win if you're mean guys can't get you into the 6th, 7th, or 8th inning on a routine basis. As GM's we know this is true because pretty much every decent starting pitcher in every decent draft will be gone in the first, say, 20 picks. When I first came to the Bikini front office position, our Major League staff was filled with early draft picks but the minor leagues were depleted. We had only two real prospects, in one of them was borderline real. Of course, it turned out, both of them seemed to have burned away into nothing.

That's the other thing about pitching prospects. They crash and burn a lot. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Except for the ones that are.

My basic approach in pulling pitching candidates out of the draft, and from other sources, is simply to find a volume that can do something well and then keep them pitching. I'll admit I've also started focusing more on matching pictures to coaches, though that is a difficult matrix to keep together. Regardless, we've got a few interesting guys hanging around here. Let's take a look, shall we?


#1 Paul Worboys

Paul Worboys (SP)	Age	OVR	STUFF	MOV	BABIP	HRA	CON
Level: AAA	21	60/65	5/6	7/7	6/6	7/7	8/8
Throws: R	*	GB/FB	Velo	Sta	Hold	#Pit	#Pit-6+
Ht: 6'3"	*	60	95	5	8	4	3
Wt: 190
Source: D59.1

As a first round draft pick two years ago, I've obviously written often about Paul Worboys. He's put up solid numbers at Lake City (A, 5-1, 2.54), Kim loops (AA, 11-11, 3.22), and Pasco (AAA, 3-5, 2.89). I was just considering getting him up into the rotation when disaster hit in the form of shoulder inflammation. This is not the worst of all injuries for a young pitcher to suffer, but it's not a good one either. As I write this he's sitting on the shelf, that could be back in time to pitch at the big leagues level for the postseason. I don't think we'll do that, but who knows?

Bottom line is that he is a strapping young prospect from Australia, and we need to find a way to keep him healthy. If he finds a little velocity in the next few years he could wind up being a true top of the rotation guy, but right now I'd project him as a solid #3 with the potential to be a #2.

2062 Projection: barring injury, he'll spend most, if not all of next year in the bikini rotation.


#2 Jose Guevara

Jose Guevara (SP)	Age	OVR	STUFF	MOV	BABIP	HRA	CON
Level: A	20	30/60	4/5	5/6	6/6	4/6	6/9
Throws: R	*	GB/FB	Velo	Sta	Hold	#Pit	#Pit-6+
Ht: 6'2"	*	65	98	6	5	3	2
Wt: 165
Source: DR58.3

Drafted out of high school, Guevara sizzled in his first season as a pro, posting a 2.57 ERA and a 78 FIP-with the team's Ogden outfit in rookie bowl. He finished that year with the game at the next level, then skipped up to Lake City (A), where the rowing has been a little tougher. Not surprising. Sometimes high school kids take a little time to settle out. The last half of this season seems to have seen him catch his stride, though. Guevara is a hard thrower, though that hasn't shown up in his strikeout rate. If it does he's the top of the rotation kind of pitcher. If it doesn't he's a high quality#3 or #4. You can tell he's starting to get there by the fact that other GM's are bringing him up in trade talks. That makes me happy.

2062 Projection: Pitch in AA, pray for a bigger fastball.


#3 Steve Truss

Steve Truss (SP)	Age	OVR	STUFF	MOV	BABIP	HRA	CON
Level: AA	24	35/40	6/8	4/5	7/7	2/3	6/6
Throws: L	*	GB/FB	Velo	Sta	Hold	#Pit	#Pit-6+
Ht: 6'9"	*	39	100	9	9	5	4
Wt: 205
Source: MLC

I'm finding it very hard to keep from getting too excited about Steve Truss. We signed him as a kind of nothing minor league free agent several seasons back but since then he's done nothing but get better. The game still hates him, of course, which makes sense because of that extremely dicey "3" Home Runs Allowed rating. So I get it. But I've been watching him move up through the ranks, and his number is just keep coming in. And otherwise, what's not to like? His repertoire is solid. He strikes guys out. He's a lefty who controls the running game. And he's a high stamina, durable pitcher. At 24 I don't know how much more they can come in, but I know I can put him in the development lab and hope for A twist of fate that pushes that rating hole up at least one notch.

2062 Projection: As noted, you'll go to the dev lab, then try to fill in the rest of those ratings at AAA.


#4 Brian Carroll

Brian Carroll (SP)	Age	OVR	STUFF	MOV	BABIP	HRA	CON
Level: AA	21	20/35	7/7	4/5	6/6	2/4	6/6
Throws: R	*	GB/FB	Velo	Sta	Hold	#Pit	#Pit-6+
Ht: 6'0"	*	43	97	4	4	4	3
Wt: 180
Source: DR59.2

The OOTP scouts have always hated Brian Carroll, and to be honest I've never really known why. He does give up too many home runs, and his stamina makes him a tweener when it comes to the question of being an inning-eater. He's clearly no Wullenwebber. But he's not chopped liver, either. He's been a pro for four years, after all, into his 84 FIP- in AA this past year-is his worst performance ever. Still, the game rates him at a 35, which makes him a non-prospect.

On the RonCo scale, however, he grades out as one of those glue guys in a rotation. Maybe #11 or #12 on the depth chart, a swing man. The guy that gets three or maybe four starts on a season, and throws in 45 games registering is 4.05 ERA, in caching is minimum salary checks until he gets through maybe his first two years of arbitration and gets a little too expensive to hang on to. These guys have value. So on the RonCo scale he's a solid 45. He's got a good beat, and you can dance to him. And, at 21, who knows, right?

2062 Projection: Maybe he'll start in AA again, but he'll almost certainly be at AAA soon.


#5 Bao-tian Jianbua

Bao-tian Jianbua (SP)	Age	OVR	STUFF	MOV	BABIP	HRA	CON
Level: R	18	20/40	4/9	4/6	6/6	3/6	2/3
Throws: R	*	GB/FB	Velo	Sta	Hold	#Pit	#Pit-6+
Ht: 6'0"	*	53	98	5	8	3	3
Wt: 170
Source: Disc

Bao-tian Jianbua is the most interesting of the steady stream of pitchers who have come into the organization out of Bikini's International Complex. At 18 years old, and with two seasons at the rookie level under his belt, you can see why he's here. Kid throws 98, and has a classic fastball, slider, change up repertoire that can make scouts drool. If he ever manages to get any of them over the plate he's going to be a star.

2062 Projection: He'll most likely be throwing in Port au Prince (SA) next season, and with a little luck, perhaps be able to cut it in A-ball for part of the year. I'm not betting the ranch on that last part, though. That need for control makes him a waiting game.

[BaseClogger]

If Worboys fills out his potential I think he’s much better than a number 3. At least a strong 2.