2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

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2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by Lane » Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:17 am

CARLOS FLORES TRADED TO LONG BEACH

August 8, 2057
Minneapolis, MN


Long Beach and Sacramento have finalized a blockbuster trade, with 3-time Nebraska winner, Carlos Flores heading to the Surfers in exchange for Lance Harrison and two of the team's top prospects.

A press conference is scheduled to be held prior to this evening's game against the River Monsters. Departing the team plane this morning, GM Stephen Lane made a brief statement:
We're all-in right now. It's probably not the last move we make, but this is a statement to the rest of the league that we are serious about competing for the championship this season.
Flores, a 9-time All Star, needs no introduction. In the 36-year-old southpaw, the Surfers are getting a future Hall of Fame player who is also the current leader in pitching WAR in the Frick League. With a record of 5-5, an ERA of 3.43, and 134 strikeouts over 123 innings pitched, he is probably the best starting pitcher that could have been available via trade this season.

The Mad Popes also shipped out Alaric Wullenweber to Phoenix in an unanticipated sell-off following two significant injuries to key members of their lineup.

The Surfers have recently been lauded for their impressive farm system, and spent significant prospect capital to make this move. The headliner is corner infielder Bill Kuhn, a 19-year-old power hitting prospect, ranked #1 in the Surfers organization. The righty was a first round pick in 2055 and has been mashing the ball in the lower minors. Scouts currently put 7/4/9/9/6 potentials on his bat. The move signals confidence in rookie 1B Austin Nolan and leaves the team without an obvious replacement for 3B Alejandro Córdova.

In addition to Kuhn, the Surfers trade away their #4 ranked prospect, COF Tsutomo Yamauchi. The 21-year-old was also drafted in 2055, and a development success story for the Surfers, rising from an unknown 15th round selection to the #94 overall prospect in the BBA. Scouts put 7/6/8/5/7 potentials on his bat, and he's also been a menace in the low minors, most recently in Key West with Bill Kuhn.

Rounding out the return for Sacramento is starting pitcher Lance Harrison. The 37-year-old righty is in the midst of another solid season for the Surfers. He has a 4.20 ERA and 84 K's over 105 innings so far this season. Acquired before the 2056 season on a two year, $16 million contract, Harrison recently signed a team-friendly two year, $5 million contract with an additional two team options years for the same salary.

As for Flores' contract, the Surfers take on the remainder of his $9.5 million salary for 2057, a guaranteed $9.5 million for 2058, and two team options for the same AAV in 2059 and 2060. The team has reportedly released 32-year-old Jay Hodge in order to stay under the league's $120 million salary cap. Hodge, acquired from Phoenix last year, had been an abject disaster for the club. A disastrous 2056 playoff run (2 GS, 8IP, 9.00 ERA) was followed up by a 4.48 ERA in 13 starts in 2057 before an elbow injury put him on the IL for two weeks. His velocity fell off, from 93-95 in April, to 90-92 recently (he was throwing 96-98 when acquired last year), and the OOTP scouting bureau pegged his stuff rating at just 5, essentially unplayable in today's BBA.

Hodge unsurprisingly went unclaimed on waivers, and after release, the Surfers will be on the hook for the remaining ~$30 million in guaranteed salary over the next three seasons. By releasing Hodge and acquiring Flores, the team and ownership are showing a strong commitment to the fans in Long Beach that winning is more important than turning a profit.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by BaseClogger » Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:30 am

Great summary of the move. Excited for you to finish second!
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by Lane » Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:32 am

BaseClogger wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:30 am
Great summary of the move. Excited for you to finish second!
heh. it's almost guaranteed that i finish second and then get knocked out in the first round
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by trmmilwwi » Sun Dec 31, 2023 5:08 pm

Jedi mind tricks.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by BaseClogger » Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:21 pm

Back up to 4 games back. Even with all my home games don’t think I can catch you after you add Flores.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by Lane » Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:08 pm

BaseClogger wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:21 pm
Back up to 4 games back. Even with all my home games don’t think I can catch you after you add Flores.
That's the idea lol. Feels like one of those special years for the team, Lots of hitters performing at the top of their expected ranges.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by Knucklehead254 » Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:38 pm

Can’t see me catching up to you for the division
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by ae37jr » Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:30 am

Frick League playoffs are going to be cut throat. 4 teams playing .600 ball. I feel like this is the best Twin Cities team I've fielded yet. But everyone else is making moves to get better, so I'm not sure how we stack up.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by Lane » Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:41 am

ae37jr wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:30 am
Frick League playoffs are going to be cut throat. 4 teams playing .600 ball. I feel like this is the best Twin Cities team I've fielded yet. But everyone else is making moves to get better, so I'm not sure how we stack up.
this is one of the better Long Beach teams I've put together, but I still feel miles behind Nashville. Anything can happen in the playoffs...the only guarantee is that most of us are going to be disappointed.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by BaseClogger » Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:54 am

I’m still in my “just thankful to get in” and “maybe getting a WC is better so you play more playoff games” phase.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by Lane » Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:27 am

BaseClogger wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:54 am
I’m still in my “just thankful to get in” and “maybe getting a WC is better so you play more playoff games” phase.
My goal is usually "just get in"

I think it's advantageous to win the division but ultimately just getting in is most important, anything can happen after that.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by Dington » Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:02 am

Lane wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:41 am
ae37jr wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:30 am
Frick League playoffs are going to be cut throat. 4 teams playing .600 ball. I feel like this is the best Twin Cities team I've fielded yet. But everyone else is making moves to get better, so I'm not sure how we stack up.
this is one of the better Long Beach teams I've put together, but I still feel miles behind Nashville. Anything can happen in the playoffs...the only guarantee is that most of us are going to be disappointed.
I feel the best team on paper only has a 25% chance to win it all.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by BaseClogger » Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:20 pm

Dington wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:02 am
Lane wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:41 am
ae37jr wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:30 am
Frick League playoffs are going to be cut throat. 4 teams playing .600 ball. I feel like this is the best Twin Cities team I've fielded yet. But everyone else is making moves to get better, so I'm not sure how we stack up.
this is one of the better Long Beach teams I've put together, but I still feel miles behind Nashville. Anything can happen in the playoffs...the only guarantee is that most of us are going to be disappointed.
I feel the best team on paper only has a 25% chance to win it all.
As opposed to 18% representing the six teams? I think it’s a little higher because of the first round bye. You could statistically calculate the random chance after incorporating the bye and then assuming talent adds ~7% sounds about right.

ESPN and Fangraphs publish their predictions each year for the MLB playoffs and the talent gap is around there although I think usually a little larger for the best teams.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by BaseClogger » Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:22 pm

I’ve got seven home games left against Long Beach (including three next sim). Need to go at least 5-2 in those games to catch Lane.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by Lane » Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:45 pm

BaseClogger wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:20 pm
Dington wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:02 am
Lane wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:41 am


this is one of the better Long Beach teams I've put together, but I still feel miles behind Nashville. Anything can happen in the playoffs...the only guarantee is that most of us are going to be disappointed.
I feel the best team on paper only has a 25% chance to win it all.
As opposed to 18% representing the six teams? I think it’s a little higher because of the first round bye. You could statistically calculate the random chance after incorporating the bye and then assuming talent adds ~7% sounds about right.

ESPN and Fangraphs publish their predictions each year for the MLB playoffs and the talent gap is around there although I think usually a little larger for the best teams.
without doing any math or thinking about it too much, i'd say 25-30% sounds about right
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by Lane » Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:46 pm

BaseClogger wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:22 pm
I’ve got seven home games left against Long Beach (including three next sim). Need to go at least 5-2 in those games to catch Lane.
if you go 5-2 that would even our season series...certainly attainable
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by BaseClogger » Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:54 pm

Lane wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:45 pm
BaseClogger wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:20 pm
Dington wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:02 am


I feel the best team on paper only has a 25% chance to win it all.
As opposed to 18% representing the six teams? I think it’s a little higher because of the first round bye. You could statistically calculate the random chance after incorporating the bye and then assuming talent adds ~7% sounds about right.

ESPN and Fangraphs publish their predictions each year for the MLB playoffs and the talent gap is around there although I think usually a little larger for the best teams.
without doing any math or thinking about it too much, i'd say 25-30% sounds about right
Assuming every series is a 50/50 matchup the wild card teams have a 12.5% chance of winning the Brewster and the division winners have a 25% chance. So I'd say it's a little higher after you account for the talent gap. If we assume the division winners will win against the wild card teams 60% of the time it's 10% chance for the wild card teams and 30% chance for the division winners. If you think Nashville is better than 50/50 against the other division winner then their chances have to be greater than 30%.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by Dington » Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:16 pm

Way too much math. I just think it's an OOTP thing. The best team on paper is rarely the champion. Maybe @RonCo has something to say about that.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by RonCo » Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:46 pm

25% is about right. You can tell because in most baseball playoff situations, the Vegas odds for the best team winning are usually right about 3:1.

That said, here's a chart I like to look at every now and again. We're in 2057, which means we've had 62 champions in the modern age:

Div FinishTeamsPlayoffsChampsChamp/Appearance
1st3263264915.0%
2nd32619284.2%
3rd3257633.9%
4th3272627.7%
5th1223
6th92
7th92
8th68
Grand Total167862362

There's some wonkiness in the numbers due to ties and whatnot, but basically 80% of our championships get won by a division winner (49/62 = 79%). But 1 in 5 go to a lesser team. 15% of division winners go on to win championships.

I should add in a tag for most wins in a season, sometime, too. That's what you'd need to determine "best team" I suppose, but of course that's debatable, too.
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Re: 2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

Post by RonCo » Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:52 pm

The Dodgers, as far as I can tell today, are +375 to win the 2024 World Series. So they are a 3.75:1 favorite. If I'm doing my math right, that means Vegas thinks they have a 21% chance to win the World Series.
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