2057.08 - The Long Beach Independent - Surfers "All-In"

[RonCo]

Going one more step...if I understand right, the Dodgers were at +800 before the signings started. That would be 8:1. or 1 in 9 chances...11.1%.

So (again if i have my math right), Vegas thinks all the signings the Dodgers made have essentially doubled their chances of winning a World Series.

[BaseClogger]

I just realized you've gotta take what I calculated and divide by two. My percentages are to win a League, not the whole thing.

[BaseClogger]

25% is about right. You can tell because in most baseball playoff situations, the Vegas odds for the best team winning are usually right about 3:1.

That said, here's a chart I like to look at every now and again. We're in 2057, which means we've had 62 champions in the modern age:

Div Finish	Teams	Playoffs	Champs	Champ/Appearance
1st	326	326	49	15.0%
2nd	326	192	8	4.2%
3rd	325	76	3	3.9%
4th	327	26	2	7.7%
5th	122	3
6th	92
7th	92
8th	68
Grand Total	1678	623	62

There's some wonkiness in the numbers due to ties and whatnot, but basically 80% of our championships get won by a division winner (49/62 = 79%). But 1 in 5 go to a lesser team. 15% of division winners go on to win championships.

I should add in a tag for most wins in a season, sometime, too. That's what you'd need to determine "best team" I suppose, but of course that's debatable, too.

Have there always been four divisions and four wild cards per league?

[RonCo]

No. The league has grown and reconfigured several times. It started with 24 teams, then went to 28, 30, and 32.

[Lane]

25% is about right. You can tell because in most baseball playoff situations, the Vegas odds for the best team winning are usually right about 3:1.

That said, here's a chart I like to look at every now and again. We're in 2057, which means we've had 62 champions in the modern age:

Div Finish	Teams	Playoffs	Champs	Champ/Appearance
1st	326	326	49	15.0%
2nd	326	192	8	4.2%
3rd	325	76	3	3.9%
4th	327	26	2	7.7%
5th	122	3
6th	92
7th	92
8th	68
Grand Total	1678	623	62

There's some wonkiness in the numbers due to ties and whatnot, but basically 80% of our championships get won by a division winner (49/62 = 79%). But 1 in 5 go to a lesser team. 15% of division winners go on to win championships.

I should add in a tag for most wins in a season, sometime, too. That's what you'd need to determine "best team" I suppose, but of course that's debatable, too.

Have there always been four divisions and four wild cards per league?

in 2026 when I first got into the BBA, we had 3 divisions in each league, 4 teams per division. there were two wild card spots. all division winners got the Geoghegan bye.

in 2029 after the first expansion it became 2 divisions in each league, 7 teams per division. IIRC 1st and 2nd place in division made playoffs plus two wild card teams. top two teams in each league got the Geoghegan bye.

[RonCo]

So the numbers are a little wonky that way, too. I feel pretty good about the 80/20 split for division winners as a rule of thumb.

[Lane]

the 2035 expansion to 30 teams resulted in 3 divisions per league, 5 teams each. two wild card spots, and the top two division winners received the Geoghegan bye

[Lane]

i forgot what a crazy time in the league those years were.

[BaseClogger]

So the numbers are a little wonky that way, too. I feel pretty good about the 80/20 split for division winners as a rule of thumb.

If we just accept that division winners are going to win 80% of the championships then each division winner has a 20% chance to win while the 8 wild cards only have a 2.5% chance to win. Seems too imbalanced, probably due to the fact there used to be more division winners. I don't think division winners are going to win 80% of Brewsters going forward.

[RonCo]

If I take the smaller sample size of 17 seasons since expansion to 32 teams, Division Winners have won 13 of the, which is 76.4%.

So, pretty close to 80%.

Of the other four, there've been a 2nd, a 3rd, and two 4ths.

If Division winners win 20% of the time, my guess is the best division winner wins 20-25%, the worst 10-15%.

[RonCo]

There were 34 championships while the league had 24 teams. Of those 34, 28 were won by division champions, which is 82%, and which makes sense.

There were only 8 playoff teams back then, and three rounds. So the "best team" had a better chance of winning.

I think we greatly over-estimate the chances of the best team winning in a playoff system where lots of weaker teams get their chances. Especially in baseball, where the best team wins individual games less often than in other sports. That's why I personally hate the idea of wildcards. Win your damned division, or go home. But I know I'm in the minority. Most people like the excitement that an underdog will take out a truer champion, and hence become a champion themselves.

But, yes, given the structure of the modern-day playoffs, it is very rare that the best team in baseball will ever be given a 25% or higher chance to win the series in either real life or the Brewster.