2057.02 - The Long Beach Independent - Something in the Water?

[Lane]

WHERE DID THE STUFF GO?

January 1, 2057
Long Beach, CA

An off-the-cuff remark by Surfers GM Stephen Lane about Jay Hodge has caused rumos to swirl among BBA analysts and online commentators.

Hodge, 31, performed well in 6 regular season starts for the Surfers after being acquired from the Phoenix Talons, but stumbled in the playoffs. The Independent does not make a habit of tracking the day-to-day reports from the OOTP Scouting Bureau, but in this case, given Hodge's performance and Lane's comments, we decided to take a closer look.

At his peak in his days with Las Vegas, scouts rated his Stuff as a 10, and he was consistently hitting 98 MPH on the radar guns. More recently in Phoenix, scouts downgraded that number to 9, but his velocity remained in the 96-98 MPH range. His Movement seems to be right on the 8/9 bubble and his Control has consistently been top tier at 10/11.

Long Beach scouts declined to comment for this article, but a peek at the current OOTP reports indicate that his Stuff rating is now a 7, and his velocity has been downgraded to 94-96 MPH. An anonymous source in the organization hinted that there was a dropoff at the end of the 2056 season but would not be more specific.

We asked that same source if the team had considered moving Hodge to the bullpen, and they acknowledged that there have been discussions about that, but nothing has been decided at this point. Including Hodge, the Surfers would appear to have seven pitchers with realistic shots at a spot in the traditionally five-man rotation, so it would not be a surprise to see him move to the bullpen.

On the financial side, the news is even worse for the Long Beach front office. Hodge is owed $22 million over the next two seasons, and holds a player option for $16 million for an additional year. He would be 34 for that season, so it's hard to imagine that he would decline the option.

Let's take a quick look at another player who appears to be on the decline, and was also acquired at the 2056 trade deadline.

Reliever Mitchell Purssell was given a Stuff rating of 13, and was throwing 96-98 MPH when he was acquired from Las Vegas. Almost immediately, scouts reevaluated his stuff rating, giving him a 9. This was reflected in his 12.71 ERA in 8 appearances.

Since then, the OOTP Scouting Bureau rates his stuff as a 7 and they've also dropped his movement rating a point from 8 to 7. Reports also indicate that his velocity has tanked to the low 90s. With these numbers, we anticipate that Purssell will be left off of the opening day roster, or at best relegated to a mop-up role. He'll be paid $2.24 million for his services this year regardless of his status.

[BaseClogger]

Brutal dude. Hodge is much younger than you expect a player to fall off like that.

[RonCo]

Yikes.

[recte44]

Not good. Pursell I could see, he’s been terrible.

[RonCo]

Probably some kind of tampering out of Phoenix.

[Dington]

Convert Hodge.

[Lane]

Not good. Pursell I could see, he’s been terrible.

Yeah, Purssell no big deal, expected at his age. Hodge kills me tho

[Lane]

Brutal dude. Hodge is much younger than you expect a player to fall off like that.

I usually assume 32-33 for pitchers to start being risky, so Hodge isn't far off that... But there's so many guys that stay solid into late 30s and he looked like a good candidate to do that.

[Lane]

Convert Hodge.

I did a test in a fictional league and it did not look good at all...

[RonCo]

Testing. Bah! The surest way to kill off irrational optimism.