2043.05 - The Long Beach Independent - Forecasting the Starting Staff

[Lane]

THE SURF REPORT - PART 1

As the Surfers have now completed the 2043 season, it's time to look ahead. Today is Part 1 of a four part series covering the outlook of the pitching staff and offense of the Long Beach Surfers. We aim to take a look at the current state, and the path forward to a winning season and playoff contention for the first time since 2040.

Rotation

As everyone knows, the rotation is headlined by 26 year old righty Danya Tchekanov. It seems unfair to criticize the ace of the staff and one of the best pitchers in the BBA, but he's been plagued by inconsistency. This season he posted ERAs of 6.06 and 4.26 in May and June, and it was not uncommon to see lines of 3.1 IP with 5 or more ER throughout the season. He doesn't have to repeat his 2.57 ERA, 8.7 WAR Nebraska-winning 2041 season, but if the Surfers are going to return to the playoffs, more consistency from Tchekanov is a must.

Pitching behind Tchekanov is 22 year old righty, Ernesto Delgado. A disastrous April tanked his season-long numbers, but following a stint in AAA, he bounced back nicely and the season overall proved encouraging. For the year, his ERA of 4.19 is disappointing, but his FIP of 2.84 tells a different story. While a sub-3 ERA would be nice, it's likely unrealistic for Delgado. Looking towards 2044, we think it's reasonable to expect a mid-3s ERA and 4-5 WAR which would be just fine for a #2 starter.

By talent, the third spot in the rotation probably goes to Mathieu Valette. Unfortunately, he's on the IL with a torn UCL and not expected to return until June 2044. The 23 year old power pitcher holds a lot of promise for the future, but so far has an 8.70 ERA in 11 BBA starts. If he's able to return to the rotation with his current talent levels intact, he's a solid #3 for the Surfers.

Next up is another 23 year old righty, Jorge Alfaro. Acquired in August 2041 for Pierre Legrand, Alfaro has the talent to be a solid mid-rotation pitcher. He excels at keeping the ball on the ground, but does struggle with walks at times. His 2043 season was abbreviated due to a shoulder injury last year, but he did make 18 starts with a 4.55 ERA. Scouts say that he's lost some stamina, but that has never really been a concern of the Long Beach front office. A reasonable expectation would seem to be an ERA in the high-3, low-4 range, which is just fine (good, even) for a mid to back end starter.

As you might expect, getting this far down a rotation we'll start to see some weaknesses, and that certainly applies to Raul Alvarez' profile. The 23 year old lefty is a converted reliever (as are Delgado and Valette) and has a significant lefty-righty split. He looks great against LHB, rated 7/9/6 but not so great against RHB, rated 6/6/5. While the league has seen pitchers like this succeed, the Surfers should probably be careful with which teams he starts against. His 5.32 ERA over 25 starts is certainly disappointing, but could be improved with more careful management. There's also some hope of improvement against opposite handed hitters, as scouts say his cutter has room for development. At the end of the day, you could do worse for a pitcher that slots in 5th on the depth chart.

The starting staff overall tends to be very ground-ball oriented, and was not helped this season by 786.2 innings of relatively awful defense from rookie SS Cary Brackett. As we'll discuss later in this series, Long Beach has struggled to find consistency at the SS position, alternating between players who can field but not hit, and players who can't field and can't hit either. It's not unreasonable to say that the key to improving the pitching staff may be improving the infield defense.

[RonCo]

Good top three.