WHIV 2037.10- LV Top 30 Prospects

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WHIV 2037.10- LV Top 30 Prospects

Post by recte44 » Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:56 pm

Now that we're using 20-80 scale for Potential, I thought I'd use my team as a test subject for "why". The BNN Top Prospect ratings are complete garbage. They're heavy on career minor leaguers, weighted to all kinds of weird positions and just plain wrong.

BNN Las Vegas Top Prospects:
TOP PROSPECTS - BATTERS
# Name Age Pos Contact Power Eye/Discipline Speed Defense Level AVG HR RBI
4 Mike England 21 2B 5 7 6 9 2 R .250 2 11
5 Sancho Castillo 20 SS 7 4 6 8 4 AAA .209 5 34
9 Chang-wei Huang 20 RF 6 5 5 3 3 R .203 2 12
10 Antonio Ruiz 18 C 8 6 3 1 5 INT .000 0 0
11 Francisco Mendez 21 CF 6 6 5 5 7 A .310 4 21
14 Nelion Mkubwa 20 1B 7 7 6 7 6 S A .375 0 3
18 Raul Alilea 19 2B 7 6 5 8 5 A .358 4 18
20 Chad Garrett 22 RF 7 6 5 10 8 AAA .275 4 19
21 Bart Cluett 23 CF 6 1 6 11 5 A .291 2 21
22 Ron Dumont 22 1B 7 6 4 1 7 AAA .300 22 59
24 Julian Fernandez 21 3B 6 7 4 1 5 AA .283 9 30
25 Foppe Visser 19 2B 6 3 5 8 6 S A .333 0 3
27 Mimum Zikomo 17 RF 6 7 6 6 4 R .318 0 2
28 Phil Logan 18 3B 7 5 4 6 2 R .161 0 1
29 Martin Vargro 18 LF 6 5 6 10 5 R .258 8 15
30 Trevor Tieleman 18 CF 6 1 5 11 6 S A .500 0 0
TOP PROSPECTS - PITCHERS
# Name Age Role Stuff Movement Control Level Rec ERA IP HA BB K
1 Marvin Atkinson 18 P 8 7 8 S A 3-1 3.62 32.1 31 9 18
2 Alvin Chartrand 23 P 9 7 6 AAA 4-2 3.38 69.1 43 34 61
3 Tetsuzan Yamanaka 17 P 7 7 9 R 2-0 1.64 11.0 6 3 7
6 Luis German 19 P 8 6 7 A 3-5 3.81 89.2 90 16 48
7 Sandro Plumey 21 P 8 5 6 AAA 2-10 4.99 115.1 137 25 77
8 Jaime Sanchez 20 P 7 6 6 A 7-4 4.33 122.2 130 36 68
12 Roman Sanchez 22 P 7 4 8 AA 5-7 4.26 112.0 117 34 85
13 Carlos Valentin 24 P 8 4 6 AA 5-5 3.58 98.0 81 27 71
15 Geoffrey Tran 26 P 9 6 3 AA 9-3 2.97 112.0 80 42 104
16 Leo Minter 25 P 6 6 5 AA 5-4 4.85 78.0 74 27 56
17 Reinprecht Spitzer 25 P 8 4 6 AA 4-3 3.38 101.1 98 28 83
19 Julio Lopez 24 P 8 5 5 R 0-0 .00 0.0 0 0 0
23 Pedro Blanco 17 P 6 4 10 R 4-3 3.10 61.0 57 18 37
26 Pedro Gutierrez 18 P 7 4 8 R 0-1 1.69 16.0 9 4 11


Now, here's my OFP (Overall Future Potential) Top Prospects List as created by me just now:
1. Marvin Atkinson SP (70)
He has all the stuff to be a #1-2 starter if the changeup develops, otherwise an elite reliever.
2. Alvin Chartrand SP (65)
#2-3 Starter seems right on the money.
3. Ryosei Akahori RP (60)
#3 Starter or High Closer- a high leverage arm who is probably best fit for the pen, this is right on.
4. Wayne Jackson RP (60)
Should be a worthwhile bullpen arm if he can overcome bad intangibles.
5. Ricardo Moreno RP (60)
High leverage bullpen arm, just like OFP says.
6. Mike England SS (55)
An above average position player- absolutely.
7. Tetsuzan Yamanaka SP (55)
#3-4 starter? That's exactly what I'm thinking.
8. Antonio Ruiz C (55)
Above average catcher- yes if he develops.
9. Sancho Castillo 3B (50)
Average regular according to OFP. I think that's spot on.
10. Luis German SP (50)
#4/Low CL/High SU? Yes, that's perfect.
11. Chang-wei Huang 3B (45)
Platoon/Utility? Yes, now that he lumped that's just right.
12. Angel Lorenzo RP (45)
Low Setup? Yup, that's right on the money.
13. Wayne Mawle RP (45)
Low setup again or #5 starter- absolutely.
14. Raul Alilea 2B (40)
Bench Bat- I think he could be a bit more than that but the performance has been choppy this year (awesome at Class A, dreadful at AA).
15. Powell Canning RP (40)
Middle Reliever- exactly what he is.
16. Bart Cluett 2B (40)
Bench Bat- you bet, I've trained him to be a super utility guy.
17. Francisco Mendez CF (40)
Bench bat- yes he's a premier defensive outfielder with bat challenges.
18. Nelion Mkubwa 1B (40)
Bench bat- probably about right for him.
19. Masahiko Nemoto RP (40)
Middle reliever- yes that'll be his role should be make it with us.
20. Sandro Plumey SP (40)
Spot SP/Middle RP- seems right given his MO challenges.
21. Jaime Sanchez SP (40)
- Spot SP/Mid RP- yup
22. Roman Sanchez SP (40)
- Yup
23. Carlos Valentin SP (40)
Again yup
24. Martin Vargro LF (40)
Bench bat- seems like that's right, too early to tell
25. Foppe Visser 2B (40)
Bench bat- yes- another utility guy
26. Mimum Zikomo RF (40)
Bench bat- way too early to tell
27. Benjamin Clark C (35)
Emergency call up? I think he's slightly more than that but I won't argue too much
28. Phil Logan 3B (35)
Again, I think as he learns third base his OFP will rise, the injury didn't help.
29. Otto Altaner 1B (30)
Organizational fodder? This is quite low.
30. Chad Garrett RF (35)
- Emergency call up, as of now that's right.

I went straight chalk on this all the way until #26 when I made a minor change by putting Altaner in the list. But this chalk list using the 20-80 OFP scale actually is a good representation of my prospects.
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Re: WHIV 2037.10- LV Top 30 Prospects

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:25 pm

Neat perspective.

However, regarding this part "They're heavy on career minor leaguers" (for the record I agree with the rest of the sentence I pulled this out of) I have the following thoughts.

What about all the 80 grade prospects (based on tools anyway and not on development) the game keeps churning out that all lump? I think this shows even more how bad OOTP is about prospects and development in general. A) No self respecting scout would put an 80 grade on like 20 guys a year. (although as Ron mentioned, relative ratings might make this make more sense) B) There's a general understanding that younger/less developed players shouldn't be graded as highly as players who have actually reached their ceiling. That is, if you have a 21 year old in AA with all 50's for tools he's probably a 50, whereas if you have the same player in rookie ball with similarly scouted tools he might get called a 40 or 45. OOTP just doesn't take this into account very well or possibly at all. The current top 100 list is nearly 50% 16 7 year olds, and half of it is teenagers.

The point is that our prospect pool isn't realistic at all. There is no way to sort it that would work. Older prospects SHOULD be better, because they are better players and more certain. Younger ones SHOULD be lower, because their upside is both less certain AND LESS QUANTIFIABLE.

What I'm saying is that the entire model is wrong. Perhaps as high as 80% of players under the age of 20 should be coming in more around 45-55 and bumping and lumping from there. Sure, some college kids can come in more well known, and there will be a few phenoms every year, but OOTP right now almost does it backwards, where amateurs show up highly differentiated, and then move towards the middle as all these ridiculous 80 grade teenagers lump and some of the 20 grade nobodies bump like crazy.
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Re: WHIV 2037.10- LV Top 30 Prospects

Post by recte44 » Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:40 pm

Thats not real life, though. Draftees are ALWAYS over-hyped.
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Re: WHIV 2037.10- LV Top 30 Prospects

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:03 pm

recte44 wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:40 pm
Thats not real life, though. Draftees are ALWAYS over-hyped.
Disagree. That is exactly how real life scouting works. The only 80 grade players of the last decade were Trout and maybe Harper according to some people, and Trout wasn't 80 grade until late in his prospect career. Fans might over hype/value draft picks. Scouts and organizations do not. If you look through any scouting report database, you will find maybe twenty TOOLS that are graded 80 in all of organized baseball (we're talking about prospects not players). If you look at any individual team prospect list, you will see more recent picks at lower levels have overall lower grades despite similar tools grades to older, higher level players. This shows what scouts know, that you can only ballpark a tool and a player in the overwhelming majority of cases until they start to work their way through the minors.

We'll see what the lists look like after going to relative ratings, but I'm not holding out hope because OOTP just does it wrong. The 22nd player on MLB pipeline's top 100 is a 55. Of the twenty on players ahead of him, four are 19 and only one is 17. Everyone else is 20 or older. The 100th player is also a 55. 16 or so of the entire top 100 are under 20. Probably a third of them are over 22. This demonstrates how higher grades are reserved for more developed, better known players. There are exceptions and they tend to be the very best of the best, which is why a 19 year old is #1. (I know our players are younger than similarly developed MLB players but the point still holds)

Fangraphs' big board looks similar, and does one better by giving a future value grade instead of an overall grade that is deliberately scaled to lower the scores of younger players at lower levels, taking into account the uncertainty in the projection. They have even fewer teenagers in the top 20.
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Re: WHIV 2037.10- LV Top 30 Prospects

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:43 pm

I do think we might be missing each other on the game overvaluing AAAA and AA guys. I totally agree that that should not happen. There's a difference between being an older prospect who is more of a known quantity with potential to be a big leaguer and being one without potential. Guys who are not big league caliber and are developed or close to it should never be ranked higher than guys who could be big leaguers some day.

This goes back to my point about how OOTP simply just does the whole thing wrong. Part of that is built into the way the game works. The "potential" score doesn't really represent the traditional scouting score very well. It's more like the "ceiling" or "if everything goes right" rather than a "what the player looks like he will most likely be" kind of score. Also, you don't hear active MLB players referred to by their scouting scores. No one calls Mike Trout an 80 grade player. Part of that is lack of familiarity with the score, but part of it is because scouting scoring is not designed to be used on active players. It doesn't really fit and is unnecessary. So the fact that OOTP uses the same ratings for its prospects as it does for it's big leaguers pushed it towards a model with a distribution of entry prospect talent that represents the majors and minors distribution of talent. This is where OOTP "does it wrong". No real team signs prospects who look like they will top out in rookie ball or short A, or even low A, but this is perhaps a third or more of the players we sign. How many half star (or 20 grade) players did you get in the draft this year, one of the "deepest" drafts ever? Seven? Eight? In real life, we only remember the top prospects, but in actuality most of them START in the 35-45 range and move (down mostly) from there over time.

In the end, it probably doesn't matter much, but with OOTP's model being so unlike actual baseball, it's obvious why the prospect rankings are so often wonky appearing and in reality rather useless.
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Re: WHIV 2037.10- LV Top 30 Prospects

Post by RonCo » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:32 pm

The split of how much to weight "raw" ratings or talents and how much to discount probability of yielding is always the magic.
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Re: WHIV 2037.10- LV Top 30 Prospects

Post by 7teen » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:43 am

If Atkinson has a chance to develop his changeup (I've not witnessed a lot of that ever happening) then I may feel like a fool with the recent trade I made with Kyle.
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