Bandits/Hackensack Series Preview - The Optimistic Version

[aaronweiner]

We've heard from another prognosticator that Birmingham is going to get swept by Hackensack in the first round of the playoffs. We'll give you five reasons why Birmingham can win the series.

Reason #1: Hackensack and Birmingham Split the Season Series, and Birmingham has won four of the last five against Hackensack.

Actually, the two teams played to a nearly dead heat during the regular season. Birmingham has outscored Hackensack this season overall, but Birmingham, since an April sweep (all one-run losses), has won five of eight and four of five against Hackensack and did so by playing Hackensack's game: namely, keeping them off the board. The loss of Damian Bedgood may hurt, but it may not hurt as much as it might have because...

Reason #2: Hackensack has the worst offense of any team in the playoffs.

Actually, it's not even close. Hackensack was ahead of only Montreal for worst offense in the Frick, and while Hackensack has the single best offensive player in this series in Rafael Rodriguez, they'll be missing star outfielder Tom Mohler, injured for the remainder of the playoffs during the last sim. Rodriguez and Mohler, along with Edward Framaggio, were the only two Hackensack players with a league-average OPS. In fact, this leads us to reason #3...

Reason #3: Offensive continuity

At every offensive position, Birmingham features a player with an OPS better than league average. That's every position, 1-8, all of them. There's absolutely no comparison between the benches, either, as Birmingham's bench definitely outclasses Hackensack's. Birmingham's offensive continuity will create problems for Hackensack, because it's impossible for even their superstar starters to take an at-bat off against anyone in the Birmingham lineup.

Reason #3: Hayden Finch, Game 2 starter, is 2-0 against Hackensack this year and has an ERA under 3.0 in August and September.

Finch struggled early on this year and had a lot of problems. However, Finch has been fantastic over the last two months of the season, and against Hackensack he was 2-0 with an ERA of 2.53 this year in three starts. Unless the Bandits really are murdered he'll get two starts.

Reason #4: Hackensack's running game vs. Pluvius Avis-Albus

Hackensack's offense was terrible, but they were second in the league in stolen bases. However, not only did Avis-Albus hit extremely well against Hackensack (and everyone) this season, there are few catchers better against the running game than Pluvius. He threw out 47.1% of all runners trying to steal this season, meaning that while Hackensack wasn't particularly efficient stealing bases (63.1% success rate) the veteran catcher will likely limit Hackensack's running game even more than usual. Mohler being out won't help either: he was 32-43 (74.4%) stealing bases this year.

Reason #5: Birmingham's vastly improved bullpen

Birmingham's pen was a huge story all throughout the season, but the Bandits' pen has finally come together. While the pen doesn't compare to Hackensack's group, there's little question that Rob Dibble, for example, isn't the same pitcher he was in April or May. There are no serious holes at all in the pen, now.


Finally...

We think that this series seems even, especially with Mohler out for Hackensack. The Bulls have very little offense without Mohler and will have to find some to beat the Bandits. While we still think that Hackensack might have the advantage with two outstanding starting pitchers at the front - an advantage that would have been largely neutralized by the presence of Bedgood - we're wholly unwilling to call this one either way.

[cramsey51]

I think you have a decent team, but Hackensack has a 1.5 RPG advantage when it comes to their pitching vs. your offense. You may have split the season series, but as you attest, half those wins came late in the season when perhaps the Bulls were on 'cruise control', plus you didn;t face either Burgundy nor Riles Jr. If the series gets extended beyond 4 games you'll be facing them twice.

[aaronweiner]

They weren't on cruise control in July or August. Actually, they weren't on cruise control until the last couple weeks of the season, and maybe not even then; Tom Mohler, one of the few offensive guys who got injured, would have be. They had the best record in baseball in August and September (tied with Valencia, half a game ahead of me) to win the division by just five games. At the time of our two-game series split, you were leading the FL Atlantic. At the time of my series sweep, it looks like they were leading you by about two or three games.

I'm saying that I'm not going to get swept. Will I win the series? I don't know, but there's no reason to think that I should get swept.

Aaron

[DoubleB]

Hackensack was actually on cruise control... or more like stuck in neutral.. up to the point of my arrival.

This club should have had a much better overall record.

But man.. losing Mohler stings.

[aaronweiner]

Agreed, possibly, on the much better record. They did last year.

It should be a closely contested series at any rate; whether I win or not a lot of Hackensack/Birmingham games have finished with one and two run differentials this year.

[lynchy34]

I thought a sweep was a bit harsh. Hackensack in 6 I think.