Before we begin, we should point out that on a normal season there are usually 1,458 innings that must be pitched. We are using estimates below to attempt to get to that number.
The Rotation:
While the rotation obviously looks 40% different this year, let’s start with the guys who remain in the rotation from last year.
Timo Dooley carried over a strong 2042 into an even better 2043 season that was cut short after the youngster hit the 200 inning mark. Dooley’s WHIP remained essentially the same year-to-year while as did most of his other numbers. We estimated 100 runs allowed in 200 innings for Dooley last season, and he finished 87 earned runs in 200 innings. We’ll stick around that 90 earned runs number this year again.
Jose Lima has been an every other year pitcher so far in his career, doing very well in 2040 and 2042, while struggling in 2041 and 2043. He actually has been a 5.5+ WAR pitcher in his good years and a 1 WAR pitcher in his bad years. Odd. We estimated 220 innings with 110 runs allowed for Lima, and were way off as he only went 181 innings and gave up 114 runs. It’s an even year this season, so we aren’t sure where to put him. Let’s meet somewhere in the middle? We’ll say 195 innings and 100 runs allowed.
Cyclone Veteran Stephen Clulow posted his first negative WAR in his career for a season last year. It’s likely that he will be the 5th man in the rotation unless Carlos Silva or Juan Ruiz really push hard in AAA. Clulow has a career average 4.93 ERA. Let’s say he is an inning beast this year as he has been most seasons. He goes 200 innings again and finishes with an ERA just a shade under 6 as he allows 131 runs.
Alright now maybe onto the main attraction.
Aki Kondo, who was signed this off-season obviously was phenomenal last year with a 7.7 WAR and only 55 runs allowed in 194 innings. He isn’t going to repeat that and you have to assume the team knows that. Looking back at Kondo, a performance similar to Dooley seems reasonable. We’ll say he allows 85 earned runs in 190 innings pitched this year.
Last but not least, the other new member of the rotation Jorge Hernandez who comes from Montreal. Hernandez only has 64 starts under his belt and played in pitcher heaven before coming to Omaha so it’s tough to gauge what to expect. Let’s say Hernandez pitches 175 innings and gives up 90 earned runs for a 4.63 ERA.
Total Rotation Innings: 960
Total Rotation Runs Allowed: 496
Estimated Rotation ERA: 4.65
Bullpen:
With the 1,458 innings in a normal season, that leaves 498 innings to be pitched by the bullpen or roughly 3 innings a game. Last season the bullpen was not great to put it nicely. The team also is clearly going to expect a bit more usage out of the bullpen based on the estimated innings that will need to be handled by the pen. It's worth noting that it is possible that Stephen Clulow or Jose Lima may shift to the bullpen at some point if Ruiz and Silva are indeed tearing up AAA. That would give the club some additional reliable bullpen help.
Patrick Whitlock was thought to be a potential star but he struggled early last year. We expected 70 innings of 30 run ball for Whitlack, and he gave up 48 in 107 innings, granted he was much better as the season went on and was closer to expectations. An ERA of 3.90, giving up 48 runs in 111 innings seems reasonable for Whitlock given his ability to pitch multiple innings each game.
Norio Hayashi was incredible in 2042 in the stopper role for Omaha and although not as effective, wasn’t bad last season. We expected 100 innings giving up 40, and he pitched just 94 giving up 39. It is rumored Hayashi is going to utilized in the stopper role again this season after developing a nasty cutter this off-season to his repertoire. It sounds as if the time will ride Hayashi as far as he will take them. Expect Hayashi to go over his 2042 output, where he pitched 109 innings and gave up 33 earned runs. Hayashi is a candidate to pitch 150 innings as a reliever. 150 innings, and well say 48 earned runs.
Jake Garcia is moving back to the pen after starting 16 games last season. We expected him to pitch 75 innings last year allowing 38 runs and he essentially doubled both, throwing 133 innings and allowing 76 runs. Garcia seems more comfortable in the bullpen, and it’s likely he won’t be needed as a starter this season. Expect him to be closer to 65 innings pitched, allowing 36 runs.
Thierry Simonnet was dealt away for Lee Mchone last season, but was traded back this off-season to pitch in the Omaha bullpen. Simonnet gets lots of swings and misses, but also lots of free passes. Simonnet was solid last season in AAA, and didn’t do bad in Charlotte. Expect the team to still limit his exposure and avoid high leverage. 60 innings allowing 33 runs seems reasonable for Simonett.
Roberto Amaya returns to the bullpen after allowing 28 runs in 48 innings last season. Amaya is likely going to be limited to mop up duty this season. Expect much of the same, another 35 runs allowed in 62 innings pitched.
Eric Holliday returns to the BBA after spending the 2043 season in the UMEBA. His most recent BBA appearance was in 2042 for San Antonio where he posted a 3.64 ERA over 59 innings of relief. The 33 year old is slotted in to take middle relief duties for Omaha. You’d have to hope for 30 earned runs over 50 innings pitched for Holliday unless he proves he can still hang in the BBA.
Total Bullpen Innings: 498
Total Bullpen Runs Allowed: 230
Estimated Bullpen ERA: 4.34
There you have it, but what about as a team?
Total Innings: 1,458
Total Bullpen Runs Allowed: 726
Estimated Bullpen ERA: 4.48
Not bad, but not great. At 726, you figure that we will finish the season with a run differential of around +30, likely not enough to make a bunch of noise in the off-season.
