Catcher:Full disclosure before we get started. I tried to do this last year as well based on RC/27 and expected runs and I predicted that we would have 829 runs scored in 2043. We scored 746 runs, or 83 less than I predicted.
You can view that laughable document below in which I question whether we are "Power Alley":
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=34358
Anyhow…I will be looking at the 2043 prediction and actual as we go along in this article along with trying to look at why we failed in 2043(was it a trade? bad year? I’m bad at math?)
2044 Outlook:2043 Predicted: 55 Runs created.
2043 Actual:
Romero Cheron: 7.8
Toshikazu Noguchi: 30.7
Warrington Gillette: 7.4
2043 Total: 45.9
Well, I wasn’t awfully here, but I was still 10 high.
Noguchi is returning as the clear starter as the team traded away Cheron, and Gilette was optioned to AAA. Noguchi played in 92 games last season, with 352 at bats. It’s fair to expect close to the same this season. If Angel Garcia, who appears to have the lead in the backup role can replace the 15 lost by Cheron & Gilette, it’s possible this position sticks to the mid-45 range which is under goal but okay for this position.
Final 2044 Prediction: 42 runs created.
First Base:
2044 Outlook:2043 Predicted: 125 Runs created.
2043 Actual:
Wilson Estrada: 74.5
Jimmy Starks Jr: 47.3
Edgardo Diaz: 7.0
Jerome Delage: 9.4
2043 Total: 138.2
A bit higher than predicted because of the great performance by Estrada in 115 games last season where his wRC+ was 127. Starks struggled badly, cutting his production basically in half, while Edgardo Diaz was a bright spot before being send to Louisville where he managed another 59 RC.
Estrada obviously returns this year and it’s likely he will once again play against righties and sit against lefties with Starks hitting lefties. The total of 138.2 though seems reasonable again since Starks & Estrada were the two main contributors and both return. We’ll go a few runs lower for fun.
2044 Prediction: 135 runs created.
Second Base:
2044 Outlook:2043 Predicted: 100 Runs created.
2043 Actual:
James Monger: 91.8
Jake Williams: 2.8
2043 Total: 94.6
We shot high here. It’s not Monger’s fault as he basically replicated 2042. There was just very little depth on the bench behind him.
This should be improved for 2044 with the signing of Alan Williamson, who had 53 runs created last year in 605 at bats, or roughly 5 runs per 100 at bats. 100 seems like a good number to guess her again.
2044 Prediction: 100 runs created.
Third Base:
2044 Prediction: 70 runs created.2043 Predicted: 95 Runs created.
2043 Actual: 74 runs created by Emilio Morales
An all-time low for Morales if you take out his first full season in the league. He struggled here last year despite the home runs. He was in the first year of his contract and these numbers are likely to drop s his age rises.
Shortstop:
2044 Outlook:2043 Predicted: 55 Runs created.
2043 Actual:
Jose Montano: 51.2 RC
Tony Perez: 12.3 RC
2043 Total: 63.5
Nice little surprise here to see Montano nearly generate the runs created prediction on his own. After posting a negative 1.5 WAR in 2042, Montano took advantage of his first full season with a 1.4 positive WAR.
Montano is just 22 so it wouldn’t be unexpected for him to repeat this or improve on it even. Perez is also returning and his .213 batting average was likely a bit lower than he is capable of. Expect the same sort of output from these two.
2044 Prediction: 63 runs created.
Outfield:
2044 Outlook:2043 Predicted: 395 Runs created.
2043 Actual:
Jaime Geerdinkck: 41.7
Pedro Garza: 29.2
William Wood: 20.3
Martin Marin: 13.0
Orlando Ordonez: 85.7
Andre Ly: 80.4
Brett White: 22.0
2043 Total: 292.3
Wow, this is literally the 100 short that we predicted. 5 of those 7 players also were traded mid-season or at some point in the season. Orlando Ordonez, as good as he was, actually played under our expectations, as did Andre Ly who was coming off a monster 111.7 RC season in 2042, only to drop to 80.4 this past year. It is worth pointing out that Donald Miller needs to be included somewhere. He put up 64.2 RC in Omaha after arriving.
This bunch should be fine this season right? The team did pick up Jim Antolin to handle LF most days, although he managed just 33.4 RC last season in 268 at bats which seems to be an average for him. If he gets his full 500 at bats this year, 60 RC seems reasonable. Slotting Ordonez in at 85 again seems to be where he is hanging out, and Ly can likely rebound and account for 90 RC. Those 3 along count for 235. Assuming Miller puts up a full season of 85 which he did last season, we’re at 320 without taking any fourth outfielders into account. Let’s slap this in at 350 for the year.
2044 Prediction: 350 runs created.
Final 2044 Runs Scored Estimate: 760Total Cyclone 2043 runs created: By adding all of the projected runs together, you come up with a total of an estimated 760 runs created on the season.
That would put the club essentially no better offensively than last year but also no worse. The club was 7th last year in runs scored in the Frick with the leading club scoring 892 runs.
Typically using RC, you have a 5% margin of error so if these numbers predicted are accurate this club could be as low as 722 or as high as 798 this year. Regardless, our estimates are based off of last year’s figures for some of these hitters and while some may be better off this year than last, it is also almost a guarantee that some will drop.
