With signing of Kondo, did Omaha just dig a hole with Ly, Ordonez, Hernandez, and Dooley?(44.3)

[niles08]

As the excitement and new car feeling of Aki Kondo joining the Omaha rotation, many were quick to look toward future seasons to see what that signing did with Omaha’s salary cap room as fear began to quickly spread that this signing meant Omaha may have to say goodbye to some of its current young core. Players such as Andre Ly, or Orlando Ordonez(who seemed to finally put it all together last season). Pitchers like Timo Dooley or the newly acquired Jorge Hernandez. And what about Donald Miller? These guys are all going to need paid eventually as service time begins to pile up.

Can Omaha still afford them?

The clearest answer we are getting from most analysts is that “it depends”.

“Omaha is in a bit of a good situation salary cap wise for future seasons even after Kondo being added. They are sitting around $100 million next season with Jimmy Starks, Clulow, and Jake Williams the only free agents so next season they could add another $10 million or so to the payroll if they wished.

Dooley and Miller both enter their first season of arbitration in 2045 and are expected to garner a combined $6.6 million or so. Ly and Hernandez look to get around $11 million combined as well. Orlando Ordonez will make $9.4 million all by himself according to estimates. Still they have $10 million available.

In 2046 things begin to look a bit tougher. The club is sitting at roughly $96 million in player salaries, if arbitration estimates hold true. With that $14,000,000 in space however the club will need to decide which of Jose Lima or Orlando Ordonez they wish to keep as they are the clubs only potential free agents this season.

While Lima may be the 4th man in the rotation right now, it may be possible that Carlos Silva or Juan Ruiz have already replaced him by this time or could in 2047.

It’s also possible that James Monger opts out of his deal at the end of 2045, and gives up the last $12,200,000 remaining for 2046. Speaking out opt outs, Aki Kindo has one on his contract after 2045. He could pocket the $63 million over 2 seasons from Omaha and leave at the age of 31, forgoing the remaining $63 million guaranteed in 2046 and 2047. If that happens, all bets are off as the club has close to $50 million to mess around with.

Let’s say Kondo sticks around though In 2046 and therefore is still around in 2047, which is the last guaranteed year for Aki Kondo, the club has $71 million in guaranteed salaries, but a slew of free agents to deal with. By 2047, the following players are set to be free agents in Omaha (with their ages in 2047 in parentheses)

CF Orlando Ordonez(27)
LF Jim Antolin(31)
RP Norio Hayashi(29)
Andre Ly(27)
Jorge Hernandez(28)
James Monger(34)

With a payroll of $71 million, the club would have around $40 million to spread among these players or let them head to free agency. You have to figure based on current arbitration values, Ordonez is likely to get $15 million per season minimum and Andre Ly would likely be in the $12 million range minimum. That leaves just $13 million on a good day to spread among Jorge Hernandez, a relief pitcher in Hayashi, and an aging second baseman.

Lucky for the club, Donald Miller & Timo Dooley both will be in their final season of arbitration for 2047, so if Kondo’s contract does not vest, the team will be able to spend that money to extend either of these players. Because of the list of free agents above, in 2047, the club would only have salary obligations of $27 million with Emilio Morales entering the final year of his contract extension, paying him $8,600,000 as a 38-year-old who likely will be much less useful by that time and Wilson Estrada in his final season of arbitration.

Doable, but it will be need to be carefully done and the Omaha front office should be watched closely for how it is handled as one mistake could lead to the team having to build from ground zero.

[RonCo]

Going to be fun to see how the dominos play out. High risk, high reward?