No fly zone? Previewing Omaha’s 2043 Pitching.(2043.16)

[niles08]

2042 Review: We just wrapped up previewing the Cyclone offense for 2043 and came to an output estimated to be around 830 runs scored on the season. As mentioned in that preview, the pitching rotation and bullpen that Omaha send out to the mound was one of the main strong points on the team and a piece that carried the team when the offense took time to heat up. The club’s pitching staff had a 4.34 ERA, a far cry from the 5.91 in 2041 and despite a very offensive minded based league right now, the best ERA that the club had in over half a decade.

Before we begin, we should point out that on a normal season there are usually 1,458 innings that must be pitched. We are using estimates below to attempt to get to that number.

The Rotation:

Timo Dooley took a huge leap forward in 2042, finishing with a 4.54 ERA, and a 3.5 WAR in 2042. He won 13 games over 184 innings, allowing 102 runs on the season and compiling a 3.5 K/BB ratio. Expect Dooley to stick around the half a run per inning ratio that he put up in 2042. According to team reports Dooley, who was on a pitch count in 2042 has had that increased in 2043 and so it is likely we will see over 200 innings from Dooley. Expect an even 100 runs in 210 innings pitched for the 23 year old.

Jose Lima proved the doubters that 2041 was indeed a fluke after Lima went just 5-15 in 2041 with a 6.27 ERA compared to his 3.16 ERA in 2040 where he won 20 games, leading the league. In 2042, he put together a solid 17 win campaign with a 3.79 ERA over 228 innings, allowing 96 runs and compiling a 5.5 WAR. Lima likely won’t repeat to that magnitude although his .297 opponents BABIP says he was just a shade under average so anything is possible. For now, we’ll say he goes 220 innings giving up 110 runs and finishing with a 4.5 ERA in 2043.

In-Sung Yi was a surprise for the club after acquiring him from in-division rival Yellow Springs. Yi won 9 games last season with a 4.19 ERA over 163 innings. He struck out 214 batters in that span, making his K/9 of 11.8 second in the Frick. Similar to Dooley, it appears that a pitch count has been upped for Yi in 2043, so to expect 190 innings from him this year would not shock us. Yi gave up 76 runs in 163 innings last year and we expect him to give up 95 this season during his increased work.

Cyclone Veteran Stephen Clulow was removed from the rotation at one point last year after having an ERA over 7, but he found his grove finishing with a 4.22 ERA in 27 starts and still managed 185 innings last season giving up 87 earned runs. Clulow benefited from a low opponents BABIP and we would expect something a bit higher against him in 2043 if you’re playing the odds. Expect Clulow to get back to this normal 220 innings in 2043 and also expect his ERA to jump closer to 5 again as he gives up 121 runs in 2043.

Juan Garcia was the man to replace Clulow in 2042 when he was removed from the rotation and is the man being called on this year to replace Jose Arrelano, who was traded to Calgary this offseason. Garcia, who was also a member of the In-Sung Yi trade with Yellow Springs appears ready to fill that roll but we do expect the left hander to struggle a bit with an ERA over 5. Garcia had a very poor season last year only because he gave up so many home runs, which typically doesn’t go well for a pitcher in Omaha. He had an ERA of 6 last year and a FIP fo 6.18 however his xFIP, which factors normal home running hitting and takes a bit of the luck out loved him as he had a 3.72 xFIP in those 63 innings pitched at the big league level. We expect Garcia to pitch 170 innings this year, and with an ERA of 5, would give up 94 runs during that stretch.

Total Rotation Innings: 1,010
Total Rotation Runs Allowed: 520
Estimated Rotation ERA: 4.63

Bullpen: With the 1,458 innings in a normal season, that leaves 448 innings to be pitched by the bullpen or roughly 2-3 innings a game. Last season the bullpen was responsible for 496 innings, and gave up 244 runs during that stretch which was a 4.43 ERA. Let’s take a look at the bullpen contributors this season beginning first with a new addition to the team.

Patrick Whitlock was a member of the trade that sent Jose Arrelano to Calgary this past off-season, and Whitlock looks ready to step into the setup role in the bullpen with an excellent curveball to get batters out. Whitlock struggled in his 10 big league appearances last season but was dominant in AAA with 13 runs allowed in 58 innings (2.02 ERA). Look for his ERA to be around 3.8 at the big league level and all indications are that Whitlock will begin the setup role as early as the 7th inning consistently for Omaha. Expect Whitlock to throw 70 innings in 2043, giving up 30 runs in that time.

Raul Luna apparently is going to be given another shot to close even after his disastrous 2042 season where he blew 10 chances in 28 attempts. Luna had a very good spring and an ERA in the 4.5 range is reasonable for him. He likely will throw 60 innings in 2043, giving up 32 earned runs and saving 40 games.

Norio Hayashi was incredible last season in the stopper role for Omaha after Luna failed as the closer, having a 2.72 ERA in 109 innings. Look for Hayashi to come back to earth a bit with a 3.6 ERA in 2043 as he throws yet another 100 innings giving up 40 runs in the process.

Tony Medine was another key member in 2042 who returns for 2043. He tossed 66 innings of 3.12 ERA ball in 2042 relying heavily on his defense as shown by his .234 BABIP. Medine isn’t going to do this again as his ERA will creep back up to 4.25 in 2042 as he has another season of 60 innings while allowing 28 runs.

We couldn’t discuss miraculous without mentioning Thomas Rodriguez. Rodriguez came up in the middle of the year after being banished to AAA and surprised many with his 3.19 ERA through 73 innings pitched. Rodriguez, being used out of the rotation and in the bullpen for the first time in his BBA career shined. He tossed 23 innings of spring ball this year with a 3.52 ERA so don’t be so quick to dismiss Rodriguez as one season wonder. However, he likely won’t be as good as 3.19. Look for Rodriguez to toss 75 innings of 3.75 ball this year, giving up 31 runs in the process.

That leaves just former Rule 5 selection Jake Garcia, who had a 4.55 ERA in 55 innings last season when he allowed 28 earned runs. Look for the same output from Garcia this season when he throws 75 innings and allowed 38 runs.

That gives us a total of right around the amount we need so let’s see where we wind up in the bullpen.

Total Bullpen Innings: 440
Total Bullpen Runs Allowed: 199
Estimated Bullpen ERA: 4.07

There you have it, but what about as a team?

Total Innings: 1,450
Total Bullpen Runs Allowed: 719
Estimated Bullpen ERA: 4.46

Not bad, not bad at all. Last year, there were 703 earned runs given up the club the entire season when they had a 4.34 ERA and a WAR of 21.2. Based on these numbers, it appears that a bit of a regression is expected, however not bad considering that the team is replacing Jose Arrelano with Jake Garcia.

Based on the offensive preview where we estimated 828 runs scored, this would give Omaha a run differential of around a positive 90 on the season or around 0.5 runs scored per game higher than given up.

[RonCo]

Omaha is going to be a tough out.

[recte44]

Would not have expected those numbers from Yi. Gives hope to all of the lower movement guys.