Power Alley? Previewing Omaha’s 2043 Offense.(2043.15)

[niles08]

2042 Quick Recap: In 2042, in somewhat surprising fashion it was actually Omaha’s pitching that carried the team for the first half of the season until the club managed to heat up. After getting hot, Omaha’s offense didn’t cool back off hitting the 2nd most home runs in a season in club history at 309 (only two off of the record 311 set in 2040). The 838 runs scored last season was also top 10 in team history for a season. Not bad considering how bad the offense was through the first few months of the season.

Now on to 2043 and previewing what each individual member of the lineup may bring to the Cyclones run scoring abilities.

Catcher:

Ramiro Cheron is sort of a question mark as he wasn’t with the club in 2042. Based on his very small sample size of 4 Runs Created in 14 games last year at the BBA level, compared to 6 in AAA, it’s likely that Cheron could have an output of about 40 runs created this season. For comparison, last season’s catcher in Omaha Conner Hamiton had an output of 41 runs created in 2042 in 132 games. There isn’t much reason to doubt that Cheron could do the same.

Warrington Gillette appears to be Cheron’s backup and likely will get 30 games or so behind the plate. Expect a total of no more than 12 runs created in those 30 games for Gillette as he appears to be behind the plate to only play defense.

Total output: 55 runs created this season.

First Base:

First base is tricky because it’s likely that Wilson Estrada contributes this year sooner rather than later, but let’s just say that Jimmy Starks Jr is handed the position for the year again. He managed to create 97 runs last season over 158 games, and that appears to be about what he has been capable of the past few seasons so it’s likely he could do that again.

If Estrada does indeed make his way up, he is likely to do the same if given the same at bats that Starks Jr would have. Assuming Estrada is going to come up and steal most of the at bats from Starks against right handed players it is likely that both players have somewhat of the same impact and between the two they output somewhere around 100 runs on the season.

In backup form, Carlos Munoz could maybe contribute 15 runs or so if he is given 100 at bats, while Edgardo Diaz could likely do the same however there are obviously only so many at bats to go around. It is likely both Diaz and Munoz see time against lefties.

Total output: 125 runs created.

Second Base:

James Monger is obviously going to get the starts at second base. Last season, he put together another run of the mill season that has come to be expected from Monger and there isn’t a reason to think that 2043 should be different. Look for Monger to hang around the 100 mark again for runs created this season as he will get most of the at bats just like last year.

Shortstop:

While it looks like Jose Montano is going to get the nod here, expect Jake Williams to mix in quite a bit at shortstop and other areas around the diamond. Montano has really struggled in his BBA career early on, but done well at AAA. He had a 7.0 RC/27 in AAA compared to just a 1.7 RC/27 in 227 at bats in 2043 at the BBA level. Expect a pretty poor 3.0 RC/27 from Montano this year which should equal around 40 runs created from his shortstop position.

Jake Williams has also been pretty bad, so it’s tough to imagine anything higher than a 3 RC/27 which based on his projected low playing time is likely only going to net out at about 15 runs created on the season.

Both of these players are quite a far cry away from what Tu-Fu Yong was able to accomplish in 2042 for Omaha when he put up 80 runs offensively.

Third Base:

This is obviously Emilio Morales’ position this year again and based on last seasons output of 5.0 RC/27, he is likely to produce around 90 runs created on the season. Of course, Morales had a very low .260 batting average last season, the lowest it has been since his age 23 season in 2033. If that batting average bounces back up into the .275 range, Morales could see his runs created jump into the 100-110 range quickly. For now, let’s say he puts out 95 runs created for the season.

Outfield:

Jamie Geerdinkck is going to start against right handed pitching so he is going to get a lot of at bats. Last season he had 79 runs created on the year and well just leave it right there at that as he isn’t going to see more than 500 plate appearances when he will ride the pine against lefties.

It’s likely that Jimmy Starks Jr will face the lefties, and we already have him sitting at 97 runs created on the season at first base so we won’t include his totals in this spot.

Orlando Ordonez Is patrolling center field again this year and despite a pretty bad season in 2043, he still managed 88 runs created on the year. Based on the fact he is unlikely to put together this bad of a year again where he had big slumps throughout the summer months, I think it is fair to slide Ordonez up to 100 runs created for the season.

Andre Ly broke out last year big time, and even though he struggled against lefties in well documented fashion, he still managed 111 runs created on the year. This season shouldn’t be different.

Brett White is another outfielder worth discussing as it is likely he sees the at bats against right handed pitching from the designated hitter role. White managed just 67 runs created in 2042, but had the worst season of his career. We’re going to be cautious here and just plan on 75 runs created in 2043 from the guy they call Chip.

One other outfielder that the team added, or welcomed back, was Martin Marin. Marin is unlikely to get many of the at bats against righties, but could be the first bat off the bench and he is slated to start at the designated hitter role against all lefties. Expect a modest 30 runs created for Marin in a limited role against south-paws.

Total Cyclone 2043 runs created: By adding all of the projected runs together, you come up with a total of an estimated 830 runs created on the season. That would put the club essentially no better offensively than last year but also no worse. Typically using RC, you have a 5% margin of error so this club could be as low as 788 or as high as 871 this year. Regardless, our estimates are based off of last year’s figures for some of these hitters and while some may be better off this year than last, it is also almost a guarantee that some will drop.

Final 2043 Runs Scored Estimate: 829