What does 2042 look like in Omaha? Is the team last year's Seattle?

[niles08]

If it wasn’t obvious when Omaha sent down the trio of Ly, Dooley, and Lima to AAA to work on “things” that Omaha was giving up on the season, then maybe it was obvious after the club announced that Mutsuhito Imai and Thomas Rodriguez would be taking over starting duties…No? Then how about after the Justin Jackson trade?

The Club is 56-83 and a clean 19 games out of the wildcard. They are locked away in the basement of the Heartland division with even Twin Cities and Des Moines beginning to pull away. The Omaha that each season has started slow and then got hot as the weather warmed, failed to warm this year and anybody holding out hope for the 2041 post-season needs to see a doctor.

But not all is lost. There is always next year. Does it get any better from here? Do big moves need to be made? Seattle fell off the cliff in 2040 after having winning seasons for 5 straight seasons, only winning 63 games last year. This year they are just on the outside of the wildcard. They made essentially 0 big moves between last season and this season. Could Omaha follow that same path? Or is a rebuild in order?

Let’s look at a potential starting lineup for Omaha based on no moves being made.

1.) RF Andre Ly
2.) 2B James Monger
3.) CF Orlando Ordonez
4.) 3B Emilio Morales
5.) DH Tu-Fu Yong
6.) LF Jimmy Starks Jr.
7.) 1B Edgardo Diaz
8.) C Conner Hamilton
9.) SS Jose Montano

There is probably 20 WAR in there somewhere.

Pitching Staff:

1.) Timo Dooley
2.) Jose Lima
3.) Jose Arrelano
4.) Stephen Clulow
5.) Jake Garcia?

Pen:

Tony Medine
Jose Canales
Norio Hayashi

Let’s say the pitching on the club is 13.5 WAR.

That’s a total of 33.5 WAR, not including any bench guys, who may amount to 1-2 WAR total.

If a 0 WAR team wins 48 games over the course of a season, adding 35 to that gets us to 83 wins. Sounds optimistic. Very optimistic. But remember that is doing absolutely nothing. How likely is it that the lineup puts together 20 WAR?

Let’s take another look and break it down a bit more.

1.) RF Andre Ly—2 WAR—Ly is still developing but 2 WAR seems more than doable here.

2.) 2B James Monger—3 WAR—He has routinely put up 3+ WAR in every season other than last. 3 Seems like a conservative number here.

3.) CF Orlando Ordonez—3 WAR projection. He had 5.2 in 2040, and is going to finish in the 2.1 range or so in 2041. A spot in the middle seems about right.

4.) 3B Emilio Morales—3 WAR--Morales is having a down year, but is still at 2.6 WAR. 3 WAR seems appropriate.

5.) DH Tu-Fu Yong—2.5 WAR He has had a bit of a resurgence at the plate in Omaha, and should see full time fielding opportunities taken away next year which could actually raise his WAR.

6.) LF Jimmy Starks Jr.—2.5 WAR—He has had an awful year, but should rebound next year back up to at least the 2.5 WAR range.

7.) 1B Edgardo Diaz—2 WAR—He exploded with 1.7 WAR in 60 games last year, and has struggled this year to replicate that. 2 seems like a doable number to me.

8.) C Conner Hamilton—1 WAR---Hamilton is steady behind the plate, and a solid contributor at the plate set to cross over 30 home runs for the second consecutive season. 1 WAR seems more than doable here.

9.) SS Jose Montano—1 WAR—The wildcard since he was just acquired. He will likely be given starting duties next year and a 1 WAR doesn’t seem out of the question.

Okay so that checks out as long as we squint hard. What about on the mound?

Pitching Staff:

1.) Timo Dooley—2.5 WAR Dooley is the clubs top prospect and could have crossed the 2 WAR mark this season had he pitched the entire time in the BBA. 2.5 WAR doesn’t seem unattainable for this young prospect.

2.) Jose Lima—3 WAR—He won 20 games in 2040 during a 5.6 WAR season. This year in 18 starts he had a 1.5 WAR. A 3 WAR isn’t out of the question based on that.

3.) Jose Arrelano—3 WAR—Despite a 5.69 ERA, Arrelano has a 2.5 WAR over 27 games started. A 3 WAR with a better defense behind him should be attainable.

4.) Stephen Clulow—2 WAR The old iron horse. Clulow is likely going to throw 200 innings again this season, after throwing 250 last year. Although not as efficient this year, Clulow should top 2 WAR in 2042.

5.) Jake Garcia?—2 WAR—This one is a complete wildcard to me. Garcia likely is not going to be the fifth starter but maybe made the most sense right now. He has a 0.6 WAR in 38 innings this year and if given the chance to start may succeed for a while. Once again, this is probably where the club finds a better suitor.

Pen:

Tony Medine
Jose Canales
Norio Hayashi

Total pitching WAR: Squint a little harder and we got 13.5.

So at 82 wins, the club is 82-80. At 82 wins the club is also falling on the brink of being pretty good, or failing pretty badly. However, this would also be if Omaha made 0 moves which based on their track record of making transactions, is very unlikely.

Did we mention that Omaha will have only $84.1 million in committed salary for next season? That number drops down to $79.6 million if the team declines the option on Jose Canales, who has been the closer since their time in Indy.

That leaves either $26 million in free salary or just over $33 million depending on which way they lean.

Their needs?

A Starting Pitcher. Clearly. While it’s certainly possible the club attempts to work with a trading partner on acquiring a pitcher, it is more likely they will have to spend some of that free salary cap room for a pitcher on the market. Maybe someone like Lee Mchone or Carlos Rodriguez? They both seem like stretches, so maybe a trade partner will have to come about..

A Bullpen.

If a bullpen arm is a dime a dozen, the club clearly didn’t get that memo and neither did the bullpen pitchers on the Hawks team, who have been awful. While it’s likely the club lets Ernesto Martas have his shot in the bullpen next season, they will still have to target a few bullpen guys. Maybe someone like a Ryosei Akiyama or Ken Bates. If Omaha wanted to swing big in the pen. Bates could potentially even start as he has for Calgary.

A Shortstop, unless the team is willing to let Montano try out. If the club is going to grab a new shortstop, this is where the trading partners will have to come in as there aren’t many viable shortstops in free agency next year, at least not much better than what the club has.

Anyhow, don’t panic Hawk fans. It’s very possible we replicate much of what Seattle has replicated this year.