Last season saw a major decline in production by our position players, down 9.5 WAR from the previous season. This season, we saw that trend continue, losing another 5.3 WAR. Over the last two seasons, we went from 30.8 WAR (2058) to 21.3 WAR (2059) to 16.0 WAR (2060). Concomitant with this trend, our wins also dropped from 92 to 82 to 78.
This 4-win decrease is entirely on the offense. Pitching WAR remained the same, season over season, at 16.6 WAR.
The decrease in WAR is not a surprise. Our championship roster aged out. Faced with a team that was on the playoff bubble last season, we began rebuilding. We traded off our middle infield for prospects and made a number of other deals with an eye to the future. We splurged on an international amateur free agent.
In last year's performance review, we made the following plans:
- Concern: Replace catcher Calvin Johnson, whose team option we plan to decline.
Plan: Promote from within or sign an inexpensive free agent catcher with strong framing skills.
Result: This plan blew up when I inadvertently activated his team option by offering him a less expensive extension. I did not realize that the extension would begin after his team option. Thus, we ran it back at catcher for 2060.
- Concern: Replace shortstop Qutuz Mahdi, whom we traded away.
Plan: Play Bill Atkinson at shortstop, where he is a relatively poor defender. Better yet, obtain a glove first defender via trade or free agency, then platoon Atkinson with Martinez at second base.
Result: We signed a young glove-first shortstop. Unfortunately, he spent the majority of the season on the IL, with three separate 5-week injury stints, then became Fragile, accumulating 0.2 WAR in 35 starts.
- Concern: Replace third baseman Eduardo González, whom we are moving to designated hitter.
Plan: Play rookie Tom Allen at third base.
Result: This was a huge success. We expect Allen to win ROTY.
- Concern: Left field fell short of 3.0 WAR goal (only 0.5 WAR accrued).
Plan: Play Tom Jacobs in left field and hope that he can replicate his 2059 performance over a full season in left field.
Result: After a promising start, Jacobs got hurt and lost his job.
- Concern: Center field fell short of 3.0 WAR goal (only 1.2 WAR accrued).
Plan: Play António Hernández in center field. He should be able to post a zone rating of +10 over a full season. Hope that he hits above the Mendoza Line and steals 20 bags.
Result: Unfortunately, the switch-hitting Hernandez has shown himself to be a platoon hitter on the wrong end of the platoon, even though his ratings do not indicate this. He hit .310/.349/.479 (132 OPS+) in 152 plate appearances against left-handed pitching; he hit .196 (59 OPS+) in 156 plate appearances against right-handers. He did steal 11 bases, which would project to 20+ in a full season if he played full time. Sadly, his zone rating was a very modest +1.7.
- Concern: Right field fell short of 3.0 WAR goal (only 0.6 WAR accrued).
Plan: Play Clancy Lee in right field, expecting that assigning him to his natural position of corner outfield will produce 3.0 WAR.
Result: Lee managed 2.2 WAR playing all three outfield positions. He's a natural LF, and I think he would have been close to 3 WAR if we just played him there.
- Concern: Designated hitter fell short of 3.0 WAR (only 2.1 WAR accrued).
Plan: Play Eduardo González and hope that he finishes his career in a blaze of glory.
Result: Sadly, Eduardo was done and we had to release him.
| POS | 2059 | 2060 | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | 3.2 | 2.7 | -0.5 |
| 1B | 3.2 | 3.5 | +0.3 |
| 2B | 2.1 | 0.1 | -2.0 |
| 3B | 3.5 | 4.7 | +1.2 |
| SS | 4.1 | -0.7 | -4.9 |
| LF | 0.5 | 2.9 | +2.4 |
| CF | 1.2 | 1.0 | -0.2 |
| RF | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| DH | 2.8 | 0.6 | -2.2 |
CATCHER
Our ageless duo of Calvin Johnson and Felipe Delgado returned for a farewell tour. The switch-hitting Johnson missed six weeks with a pair of injuries but rebounded from his poor 2059 season. He made 58 starts, good for 1.8 WAR. Delgado started 68 games and earned 0.9 WAR. The other 36 games were distributed among three others. Johnson accrued 8.1 framing runs and Delgado 5.3. Delgado is a free agent after this season. The Johnson-Delgado platoon was good for 2.7 WAR.
Behnke was acquired in a waiver trade in mid-July and assigned to AAA. We brought him up when rosters expanded. He started 9 games, hitting .286/.310/.393 (98 OPS+) and earning 2 framing runs. The current plan is to allow Delgado to walk and anoint Behnke as Johnson's platoon partner. If they stay relatively healthy, 3 WAR seems within reach.
FIRST BASE
Team captain Dan Wilkinson is our first baseman, hopefully for years to come. His .291/.365/.545 (153 OPS+) led the team and ranked third among Johnson League first basemen. He posted 3.8 WAR. I'd like to think that the torch has been passed from Lineu Aldo to Wilkinson.
SECOND BASE
This was a disaster. Last year's wunderkind, Bill Atkinson, could not repeat his rookie season and was sent down. None of our prospects are major league ready. The bulk of the playing time went to veterans Candrakesa Surati and Miguel De La Cruz, with youngster Tsu-bahr Hru also in the mix. Hru and de la Cruz were both waiver claims. Surati played well, starting 68 games and hitting .305/327/.405 (107 OPS+) with a +1.4 zone rating, earning 1.1 WAR. The other two hit poorly, around 60 OPS+, and were not any better than Surati in the field. They basically offset Surati's 1.1 WAR.
De la Cruz will be non-tendered, but I'd like to keep Hru around as our infield reserve and pinch runner. He is a phenomenal base runner (12/11/12/13) and can play every infield position reasonably well. Only 25, he has yet to max out his ratings.
Surati, at age 34, will compete with Bill Atkinson next season for the starting job while we wait for prospect Bengt Zippro, 23, to mature. He's probably two seasons away, given his poor work ethic.
THIRD BASE
Rookie of the Year candidate Tom Allen led all Johnson League third basemen in OPS+ (146), isolated power, extra base hits, and zone rating (+5.3). His 4.7 WAR led the teams position players. Like Wilkinson, we hope that he will be a fixture at the hot corner for years to come and that the torch has been passed from Eduardo González to Allen. Aldo and Gonzalez played together in Montreal for almost two decades; will Wilkinson and Allen follow in their footsteps?
SHORTSTOP
Oh, how we miss Mahdi! Shortstop was a dumpster fire. Our plan to play John Jowers, our offseason signing, full time at shortstop blew up when he couldn't stay on the field. We ran out a conga line of players to the shortstop position, but nobody impressed the judges. Out of desperation apparently, the game even started our first baseman Dan Wilkinson at shortstop for one game. The most successful among them were Hru and utility man Júlio Torres, but all were simply cosplaying shortstop. We lost almost 5 WAR at shortstop as compared to last season. It was a black hole, swallowing our hopes and dreams for a competitive season.
Our only legitimate shortstop, Jowers is now Fragile. Our only real shortstop prospect is far away, playing in Short Season A next season.
LEFT FIELD
This is Clancy Lee's natural position, but he has been deployed to center field and right field the last two seasons out of necessity. Joe Jackson dropped in our lap as a waiver claim after a slow start in Sacramento. The change of scenery did him good, as he hit .322/.322/.441 (114 OPS+) with 22 doubles and 13 stolen bases (in 14 attempts) for us, putting up a +3.4 zone rating in 59 starts. He's strictly a left fielder (or a first baseman, but that position is taken). His 1.3 WAR projects to 2.5+ over a full season.
We acquired the switch-hitting Júlio Torres in trade during the offseason. He's our utility guy, capable of playing any position except catcher or center field. With his plus-plus arm, he is best at the hot corner or in right field. He has plus-plus speed and base running instincts. Best of all, he abused left-handed pitching to the tune of .285/.382/.488 (145 OPS+) and batted lead-off against southpaws. He is a natural platoon partner for the left-handed Jackson. We got 2.9 WAR out of the LF position and believe that this is absolutely repeatable.
CENTER FIELD
For as long as we've been in Montreal, this has been our great white whale. Nothing has changed. We got 1.0 WAR here, essentially unchanged from the prior years 1.2 WAR.
We had slim hopes that in-house candidate António Hernández could rise to the occasion, as he was our only player in the organization that remotely resembled a major league center fielder. He is a capable platoon center fielder, but we are still plying the BBA seas in search of the real thing.
Our Rule 5 acquisition, the left-handed Jedidiah Marzuq who had never played above short season A, received way too much playing time here as we struggled to put out a center fielder who could hit BBA pitching. Hell be assigned to AA after this season, but we hope to see him in the big leagues again eventually.
RIGHT FIELD
We made incremental progress here, but we still have a way to go. I'd hoped that Rule 5 acquisition Luis Chávez was the answer. He may yet be. He fits our preferred Blazer template of high contact, high gap, and high speed. He was making the jump from AA and performed reasonably well in his BBA debut, hitting .278/.326/.418 (110 OPS+), but struggled on defense. He'll remain with the big league club.
Clancy Lee will likely return as our right fielder, but he has not hit left-handed pitching well. We will be looking for a platoon partner. Unlike the up-the-middle positions, our system is well stocked with corner outfielders, but none are clearly major league ready. I think 2.5-3.0 WAR is within reach.
DESIGNATED HITTER
After Gonzalez proved to be finished, we ran through many options here. Chavez eventually won the job, surprisingly hitting equally well against pitcher of either hand. For now, we are counting on growth and experience to improve Chavez's numbers, but DHs are more available than most in the marketplace. We'll keep our eyes open. I don't think Chavez is going to get us to 3 WAR, but he might surprise. He put up 4.2 WAR in AA in 2059.
SUMMARY
We are strong in the corners, weak up the middle except for catcher (which is a pleasant surprise) and need better production at DH. Unfortunately, middle infield and center field are the hardest positions to fill.
The good news is that our payroll has shrunk to a shadow of its former self. We can't splurge on international free agents this season. If the right opportunity presents itself, we will have the cash and cap space to pounce, but we aren't looking for short term "win now" guys. We'll keep our powder dry. Meanwhile, we will continue to max out our development budget.
PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT PLAN
- Concern: Improve production at second base without hurting defense.
Plan: Bill Atkinson and Candrakesa Surati will compete for the job or perhaps platoon, unless we can obtain a young second baseman via trade, free agency, or the Rule 5 draft.
- Concern: Improve production at shortstop without hurting defense.
Plan: John Jowers is the incumbent, but I have no confidence that he can stay healthy. I'll be on the lookout for another Jowers or equivalent, assuming that we can't find a real shortstop via trade, free agency, or the Rule 5 draft, none of which seem likely.
- Concern: Find a center field platoon partner for António Hernández who can both play defense and post positive WAR.
Plan: To quote a famous guy, I have concepts of a plan. No, that's a lie. All I can offer you is hopes and prayers.
- Concern: Right field fell short of 3.0 WAR goal (only 1.3 WAR accrued).
Plan: Play Clancy Lee in right field and resist the urge to play him in center field. Find a platoon partner for Lee.
- Concern: Designated hitter earned only 0.6 WAR.
Plan: After the initial free agent feeding frenzy, shop the bargain bins for a DH. Alternatively, hope that one of my AAA guys breaks out.
