At the end of last season, I announced that my plan was to upgrade at shortstop (see team news 56.17). We had dramatic shortfalls at first base, right field, and DH, but my hands were tied with large contracts at these positions. I felt that they had underachieved in their first season with our team, and I said that our fate would be largely determined by whether these players could regress to their historical means in year two with our ballclub. Thus, our offseason was relatively quiet at the big league level.
Let’s begin as I did last season, with a reminder of how WAR relates to performance:
Fangraphs publishes the following WAR chart:
| Value | WAR |
|---|---|
| Scrub | 0-1 |
| Role Player | 1-2 |
| Solid Starter | 2-3 |
| Good Player | 3-4 |
| All-Star | 4-5 |
| Superstar | 5-6 |
| MVP | 6+ |
Catcher [3.6 WAR, down from 4.5]: Calvin Johnson, signed last season to a 3+2 contract (3 years plus two team options), did not repeat his All Star season, but I am still very happy with his 3.5 WAR. Our backup catcher, Jake Rising, whom we inherited, was shipped off in the Mahdi trade. We replaced him first with Leon Rosa, and eventually with superior defender Juan Villa, who took forever to agree to a deal thanks to his high Financial Ambition. Villa contributed another 0.5 WAR, offsetting Rising’s -0.3 WAR and Rosa’s -0.1. Johnson is an elite pitch framer who rates 10 in Cacher Ability.
First Base [3.3 WAR, up from 1.6]: This season, we moved our long-time second baseman, Lineu Aldo over to first base, as Father Time was catching up to him at the keystone. He responded with his best offensive season in ten years, one of only two BBA players to record a 20 HR/30 SB season. His OPS+ was 141 when he went down with a high ankle sprain in mid-August with 2.9 WAR up to that point. We hope that he will return next season without serious repercussions from his injury, as he has Normal injury proneness. He’s signed for 2+2 more seasons. We deployed several players in his absence, none of particular note.
Second Base [5.2 WAR, up from 3.7]: Having moved Aldo to first base, we installed Miguel Martinez at second base. We brought him up last season to play shortstop because we were desperate at the position. Second base is his natural position, and he thrived in his first full season in the big leagues as a regular. Among JL second basemen, he was second in 2B/3B/HR/WAR to Charm City’s superstar Dave Ackerman, whom I voted for MVP. He was first in XBH/Isolated Power/OPS+/WPA. He led all 2B in range factor and assists with a positive zone rating. I am still salty that he was not named to the All Star team. He led our 100-win team in WAR. He’ll be getting a raise in arbitration after this season.
Third Base [5.5 WAR, down from 6.8]: Eduardo Gonzalez, or Steady Eddie as I like to call him, just shows up and delivers, year in, year out. He’s a future Hall of Famer and a Blazer lifer who will see his number 32 retired. We just signed him to a 3+2 extension. He’s durable, and we hope that he can continue to post 4-6 WAR for us over that time.
Shortstop [3.2, up from 0.9]: We entered the season with a platoon of two journeymen. They were exceeding our modest expectations when the opportunity to acquire Gold Glove franchise shortstop Qutuz Mahdi materialized. Mahdi is the answer to our prayers at the position, and he’s signed for three more seasons. He scuffled in his short time with us, but we expect him to regress to his career mean next season, giving us 3 WAR and world class defense.
Left Field [2.2 WAR, down from 2.9]: I knew this was going to be a positional weakness, but I was unable to find any suitable replacements. After platooning last season against right-handed pitching, Ramao Saturnino was given the position full time. He managed a meager 1.7 WAR, down from last season’s 2.1. I experimented with others at the position, and I managed to wring another half WAR out of them. We hold a team option for him after this season, which I intend to decline. This is going to be my major target in the offseason, but the pool of candidates is limited by my requirement that they must be plus defenders with good range in our vast outfield in Ubisoft Field.
Center Field [3.7 WAR, up from 2.9]: This started out as a platoon of Jorge Rincon and Bill Morley, but Rincon got hurt in April. We traded for Jose Leyva, who shared time with Morley. Both are Fragile, which terrifies me at this critical position. Sadly, my fears were realized in August, when Morley went down with a season-ending injury. I extended both Leyva and journeyman John Oliver to form a platoon next season for us. Morley’s agent wanted over $10 million per season for four seasons after his career year with us, and we have neither the cap space nor the desire to invest that much into a 36-year-old Fragile player. I expect that we will be lucky to get 3 WAR out of center field next season, but it might happen. I would like to find a more permanent solution, but good center fielders are few and far between.
Right Field [2.5 WAR, up from -0.6] Last season, right field was a disaster, largely due to our newly signed free agent Pedro Huerta hitting .237/271/.416 for an OPS+ of 80. As Joe Girardi would say, “It’s not what you want.” He was better this season, managing an .819 OPS / 123 OPS+, but still well short of his recent seasons that average around a 140 OPS+. His ratings are still strong, so we hope that he will hit close to his career averages. We gave significant playing time to rookie James Belinda, but he was not ready and got sent back down. I plan to give him another chance in a platoon role with Huerta this next season. Huerta’s contract has him with us for another 2+2 seasons.
Designated Hitter [2.4 WAR, up from -0.8] Having moved Aldo to first base, I moved Aarnoud Budding to DH. Like Huerta, he bounced back from a disastrous 2056, hitting 29 HR and recording a 141 OPS+ as compared with a 91 OPS+ last season. Budding struggles against left-handed pitching, so he needs a platoon partner. This was supposed to be the rookie Hanbal Sayyid, but like his running mate James Belinda, he proved not ready for prime time. A solid RH designated hitter would help fortify this position. Both Sayyid and Mike LeBlanc will get an opportunity to prove themselves next season.
My offseason plan is to find a left fielder. I hope for continued incremental improvement at right field and designated hitter. Otherwise, I plan to run it back next season with this group. Erik deserves a chance to spend more of our owner’s money.
