56.02 Montreal Reloads after Mass Free Agent Exodus

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56.02 Montreal Reloads after Mass Free Agent Exodus

Post by Bob Breum » Sun Aug 20, 2023 2:25 pm

Montreal's new GM duo took over a club that made the playoffs three of the last four seasons, winning 93+ games in each. While the big league pitching staff remained mostly intact, much of the lineup left to explore free agency. When the Breums unpacked in Montreal, they discovered that they had lost more WAR to FA than any other club, including OF Pedro 'Dragon' Rosales (4.8 WAR), 2B Lineu Aldo (4.2 WAR), OF Matthew Reilly (3.2 WAR), 1B Bastião Fardos (2.9 WAR), SS Dick 'Boy Reporter' Walton (1.3. WAR), and team captain Fuad Demirel (1.4 WAR). All told, over 20 WAR had walked out the door, leaving an empty outfield, no middle infield, a vacancy at first base, and a leadership vacuum in the clubhouse.

One of the concerns that the new management had about the club going in was team defense. Bob Breum has always prioritized defense up the middle, and that was an obvious weakness with the former lineup. Rosales is a fabulous hitter, but he has consistently posted double-digit negative zone ratings in CF. If he had stayed, Breum had planned to move him to the corner. At second base, Aldo is not a plus defender, but his career numbers at the keystone are only slightly negative. Breum gave consideration to moving him to 1B, where he has won multiple Gold Gloves, but was unable to find a suitable replacement to play 2B. At shortstop, Walton was supposed to be a bat-first guy who was approximately league average at the position with his glove. In his walk year, he honored the latter description, but managed only a 79 OPS+. At catcher, Jake Rising was the best defender among the up-the-middle positions, but barely so.

When you walk into Ubisoft Field, you are immediately struck by the vastness of the beautiful grass outfield. It seems to go on for miles. The distance to dead center is a fairly standard 403 feet (123 meters for the locals), but the power alleys are just as deep. Perhaps there's a short porch for the pull hitters? Nope, it's still over 350 feet to the foul poles. Our analytic friends have calculated that the likelihood of hitting a home run out of this gorgeous stadium is only about 82% compared the average MLB ballpark.

If there's any good news for the batters in Ubisoft, it's those 400'+ power alleys. Sure, it's tough to hit it over that distant ten-foot wall, but with all that grass, it's equally difficult for the outfielders to cover those gaps. Doubles are increased to 116% of average, and triples by 108%. The bad news is that the lack of foul ground and the distant fences really suppress batting average, to about 90% compared to the average MLB field.

Breum concluded that he needed to construct a lineup that could take advantage of his home field's quirks. His staff suggested that the ideal hitter would have strong hit and speed tools, targeted at extra base hits into the gaps and corners and able to take extra bases once aboard. The park was tailor made for an old school approach to the game, with high contact batters and fleet runners employing out of fashion tactics like the hit and run and the stolen base, perhaps even bunting for hits. Think Whitey Herzog's St. Louis Cardinals.

Breum gave a lot of credit to the previous management team, as many of the players who played prior to his arrival fit this profile. Rosales, who the club attempted to extend without success, finished fourth in the league with 86 extra base hits. Carryover Sliver Slugger winner third baseman Eduardo González led the league with 56 doubles. Aldo was fourth in doubles with 49 and fifth in triples with 9, and Matthew Reilly hit 45 doubles.
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Eduardo González

While they were unable to reach a deal with Rosales, they did eventually come to terms with Aldo, who will return to man the keystone for the team for at least the next four seasons. Breum admitted that he was uncomfortable with a deal that will extend to Aldo's age 39 season, but felt that it was a risk worth taking, for both continuity in the clubhouse and the ideal fit of Aldo's elite hit and speed tools to his home park. Image
Lineu Aldo

Also returning after a brief fling with free agency is veteran LF/1B Ricardo Ruíz. He is expected to fill a platoon role with his RH bat. He is a well-respected leader in the clubhouse. Image
Ricardo Ruíz

Breum’s top target in free agency was center fielder Arvin Duggan, the only power hitting center fielder available whom he trusted to patrol Ubisoft’s vast outfield. Despite the Blazers bidding considerably more, Duggan chose to sign elsewhere, leaving Breum scrambling to fill the position. The rest of the available free agent center fielders forced a choice between glove and bat; none possessed both, relative to the league average.

He eventually settled on a platoon of LH Jorge Rincón and RH José 'Heartthrob' Leyva, both of whom are capable of double-digit positive zone rating in center field over the course of a season. Rincon roughly fit the team’s desired offensive profile of speed and gap power, while Leyva was a slightly better hitter with no wheels. Unfortunately, Leyva chose to sign with Las Vegas, and Breum’s search continued.
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Jorge Rincón

Breum turned his attention to the trade market and struck a deal with Charm City to secure Rincon’s platoon partner. For the hefty price of the club’s 28-year-old ace starting pitcher Carl Vincent, Montreal received three outfielders: right-handed veteran CF Bill Morley, left-handed corner outfielder Shirai Matsumoto, and 23-year-old CF prospect Marcus Chilcott who spent last season in A ball. Morley is an elite Gold Glove caliber defensive CF, capable of 20+ zone rating over the course of a season. He roughly fits the team offensive profile of speed and gap power, although he has lost a step over the years. Matsumoto fits the desired mold very well, with both great speed and gap power, and strong defense in either outfield corner. He is expected to start in right field for the Blazers.
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Bill Morley Shirai Matsumoto

Another goal of the offseason for the Breums was to upgrade defensively at the catcher position. Initially the team declined to pursue their desired catcher, the veteran Gold Glove winner Calvin Johnson, having decided to devote their limited budget elsewhere. The failure to sign Duggan freed up the money to make a run at Johnson in free agency. By this time Johnson was more flexible in his demands, and they reached a deal that will keep Johnson in Montreal for the next three seasons. Breum’s explanation for their pursuit of Johnson was simple: Framing Runs. Johnson is elite in framing pitches. The fact that he has a strong arm is just a bonus. It is expected that the switch-hitting Johnson will platoon with the incumbent catcher, RH Jake Rising, who also boasts strong framing numbers. Image Image
Calvin Johnson Jake Rising

Shortstop, like center field, offered a choice in free agency between bat and glove. Unsurprisingly, the new regime opted for glove, signing five-time Gold Glove winner Mauro Soto as their new shortstop. Even at age 37, he can make plays that most infielders can only dream about. The team medical staff was impressed with Soto, assuring management that he could hold his own with the youngsters. The latter better stay alert; it is said that Soto is quite the prankster. Image
Mauro Soto

Beyond the up-the-middle positions, Breum prioritized the team’s offensive profile as he filled out the remainder of the lineup. With All-Star doubles-machine Eduardo Gonzalez set at third base and the speedy Matsumoto in right field, that left first base, left field, and DH to fill. Ever cognizant of the demands of playing outfield in Ubisoft, the team brought in the Gold Glove winning speedster Ramão 'Massacre' Saturnino to play left field. Saturnino has 20/20 potential and has even been known to drop a bunt for a base hit if the infielders are not on their toes.
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Ramão Saturnino
The left-handed slugger Aarnoud Budding was signed to play first base. Winner of multiple Silver Sluggers at the position, Budding is no Flying Dutchman but he has tremendous power into the gaps, which is expected to play well in Ubisoft. He could rival teammate Gonzalez for the team doubles crown.
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Aarnoud Budding

At designated hitter, Breum had his heart set on All-Star Pedro Huerta, and this time he got his man, perhaps with a bit of an overpay, which is not unusual in free agency. Huerta has elite gap power and game changing speed, even at age 35. He is expected to be an extra base machine for the club, stretching singles into doubles and doubles into triples, and Breum hopes that Huerta can win another Silver Slugger.
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Pedro Huerta

Two veteran infielders were signed for bench roles. Middle infielder Aleksandr Ginevglekov brings gap power and speed to the bench, as well as the lost skill of bunting for a hit. He can play either middle infield position well, with excellent range and world class footwork around the bag. The ageless Quant 'Greek Freak' Kouros claimed the other bench spot, backing up the infield corners and capable of playing second base in a pinch. Even at age 40, he is still a base stealing threat. The former Sliver Slugger and Gold Glove winner rarely strikes out and should draw more than his fair share of walks, but can still power the ball into the gaps given the opportunity.
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Aleksandr Ginevglekov Quant Kouros

With Whitey Herzog no longer available, Breum had to look elsewhere to find a manager to implement the team’s new offensive philosophy. He and his staff interviewed a number of candidates, but their decision was unanimous to hire the Gamblers’ long-time bench coach, Ernesto Zamora. This is Zamora’s first big league manager job, although he has experience managing in the minors. The Blazers felt that Zamora’s tactics and game management fit their plans. Zamora loves to run wild on the bases, and he is expected to maximize the opportunities to employ the speed possessed by most of the lineup. You can also expect Montreal to be aggressive with defensive shifts, both in the infield and the outfield. No spring chicken himself, at age 62, Zamora is skilled at working with aging ballplayers, of whom the Blazers have many. Zamora’s bench coach, Clancy Williams, is also highly skilled at dealing with older players.
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Ernesto Zamora Clancy Williams

Assisting Zamora with the run game will be his base coaches, Adrián Ríos at 3B and Tim Gillespie at 1B. Both are considered excellent at directing traffic on the base paths. Gillespie has been tasked with teaching the run game, but many of his charges could probably teach it equally well.
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Tim Gillespie Adrián Ríos

Bob Breum commented on their efforts to date: “We are excited to get the season started and to see our plan come together. We are confident that our team defense will be among the league leaders, and we hope that we can duplicate last season’s strong offensive numbers. Six of our players have won Silver Sluggers. We have four regulars in our lineup whose gap power is 99th percentile or better, combined with excellent bat-to-ball skills. All four of them should compete for the league doubles lead; it will be fun to see if Eduardo can defend his crown. We have three starters that feature elite speed, two more in the 90th percentile, and three bench players who can fly. Two of our guys routinely bunt for hits successfully, and we’ve got a couple of other guys who are pretty good at it. Ernesto, Tim, and Adrian will have lots of fun with these guys.

“We’ve worked hard to upgrade our defense, and the fact that we have seven Gold Glove winners among our players is a testament to that. We’re very excited to have Calvin working with our pitching staff. My son and I are thrilled to have this opportunity to take the reins here in Montreal, and we will work hard to bring a championship to our fans.”
Bob Breum
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Re: 56.02 Montreal Reloads after Mass Free Agent Exodus

Post by Jwalk100 » Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:40 pm

I like this run down of your process and acquistitions. Good job.
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Re: 56.02 Montreal Reloads after Mass Free Agent Exodus

Post by BaseClogger » Sun Aug 20, 2023 4:58 pm

My favorite type of TN and a great read. Both of your original CF targets were Bears recently so we like similar guys at that position.
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Re: 56.02 Montreal Reloads after Mass Free Agent Exodus

Post by Dington » Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:24 pm

Bob Breum wrote:
Sun Aug 20, 2023 2:25 pm
Dick 'Boy Reporter' Walton
Ha. Dick Boy
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Re: 56.02 Montreal Reloads after Mass Free Agent Exodus

Post by jleddy » Mon Aug 21, 2023 4:00 am

Ricardo Ruiz still chugging along? Love to see it.

Nice recap!
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Re: 56.02 Montreal Reloads after Mass Free Agent Exodus

Post by trmmilwwi » Tue Aug 22, 2023 8:25 am

Love the writeup, goods tuff. I was in on Soto and sad we missed out. I'll be watching the Blazers this year for sure!
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