Montreal lets FA Walk 1.1

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handaspencer
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Montreal lets FA Walk 1.1

Post by handaspencer » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:33 pm

The Blazers have made it official and allowed Mark Dempsey,Joaquin Camacho and Luis Ortega walk into free agency. After finishing 4 games under .500 and losing one of the best relievers in the game and a solid 3B last season appears on the surface as a huge loss. Let’s be honest almost any club would love to have these guys but why would Montreal let them walk? There is probably not one simple answer to that question but we will look at some potential reasons.

1. Montreal as presently constructed are not cost efficient.
They ranked near the bottom of the league in dollars spent per win last season. There is a couple guys on the roster who are not earning there wages, most notably 1B Charles Martin who is still owed 36.3 Mill over the next 3 years. Martin appeared in 108 games last season and actually finished the season with negative WAR. In 356 plate appearance he only walked a remarkable 8 times and only had a .289 OBP. In past years his production has been better but 2037 was a year for development crushes and lack of production.

2. If Ortega and Dempsey return does Montreal make the Playoffs?
After winning 79 games last season and being 7 games back from the final wild card spot that feat appears tough. There is belief internally that Montreal was better than there record indicates but it’s doubtful they was actually good enough to win 86 games which was the minimum qualifier for the playoffs. Having those guys on the roster going into next season would be a great foundation for a solid team but they would have no financial ability to add extra guys needed for a legitimate playoff team.

3. To spend or not to spend?
Placing actual value on a player is a tough task. If you’re a contending team and the only thing you was missing was a bullpen and you had the chance to sign Ortega for over 10 mill would that be a bad deal? Absolutely not!
If you’re a .500 team and 1/5 of your payroll would have went to the bullpen, would that be a wise team building decision? I was unwilling to invest that much money in my bullpen under the current construction of this team. But for another organization they could have the finances to invest in a quality pen.
The same principle applies to Dempsey, in what could be a bad deal for me could be a great deal for another organization. With the amount of long term deals currently on the books in Montreal an effort needed made to become for fiscally responsible looking out over the next 3-4 seasons.

4. Type A compensation
If signed by the compensation deadline Montreal has the opportunity to pick up (2) 1st round compensation picks which would give them 3 picks in the top 35. Compensation can be a slippery slope and many times the value gained from compensation picks don’t equal the value that was lost. Essentially sacrificing a proven asset for an unproven asset is risking but has the potential for huge gains as well. For example Ortega has averaged over 3 WAR the past 3 seasons as a reliever and when the regular season starts he will only be 28 years old. If he averages 2.5 WAR over the next 6 seasons, can you draft someone who will produce equal during the 6 controllable years you gain from the compensation pick? Those are questions that won’t be able to be answered until several years down the road in this particular situation.

Bottom line as I examined the current situation in Montreal and asking myself where do I want to be in the next 3-4 seasons the decision was made to let talent leave. Are we tanking? The answer is no and we proved that by adding Hank Brewer. I am sure many are asking why did Montreal add a guy making almost 14 million, who was an average catcher at best last season but wouldn’t pay Ortega or Dempsey?
In team building I like to avoid what I call the “bull whip effect”. What does this mean? Stripping down a team overnight can create drastic shifts in the mood of the fan base and greatly impact the profitability of an organization. With the loss of Ortega and Dempsey you would expect a huge loss in fan interest, but by adding Brewer we was able to keep our fan interest the same as last season at 91. I am also hoping season ticket sales will be close to the same also to produce similar revenue.
Essentially this bought me a year and controlled the drastic shift in a negative direction. We have some young talent in Montreal in the system to work with and by potentially adding a couple extra prospects through compensation this seemed like the best option to stabilize the short term and also look long term as an organization. We did take a chance on Brewer returning to old form and hoping he can create future value for us at a later date by having a rebound season.
Nobody wants to be stuck in the middle but I don’t think we need a complete teardown and I also don’t think we will be contenting for a title next season either. We are looking forward to making some internal changes for this season and hoping to increase the assets internally so we can be a competitive organization going forward.

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Re: Montreal lets FA Walk 1.1

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:41 pm

I like the logic here with letting the guys leave.
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Re: Montreal lets FA Walk 1.1

Post by RonCo » Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:08 am

Geez. Like we needed another good GM around.
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Re: Montreal lets FA Walk 1.1

Post by JimBob2232 » Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:36 am

I am very happy you let Camacho and Dempsey walk. Filled 2 holes for me. And cost efficiently too.

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