Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Co-GM: Bob Breum
Co-GM: Erik Breum

Moderators: breum, Bob Breum

JohnC
Ex-GM
Posts: 1664
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 2:51 pm
Location: Newcastle, Ontario, Canada

Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by JohnC » Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:48 am

When the 2034 Blazers projected their starting staff for the season, Aki Kondo was a lock to be the 5th starter. The young rookie posses three plus pitches, combined with high velocity and decent control. With a powerful offense behind him, he seemed a lock to have a strong rookie season. As we know, things don't always go as planned...

Through 20 starts on the season, Kondo has only won a single game. A 1-7 record. Not the kind of start to a promising career the Blazers were hoping for. His ERA currently sits at 5.16. Some of that can certainly be blamed on some shaky defense behind him. The Blazers are ranked a dismal 13th in team defense. There have been some internal discussions about sending him to AAA for the rest of this disappointing season, but GM Callahan prefers at this point to try and let him learn at the ML level. "Generally speaking, when I promote a player to the ML level, I prefer not to send him back to the minors again. I like to make sure they are already developed and in a position to have success. In Kondo's case, I am hoping this will be something that he learns from going forward", said Callahan.

One season does not define a career, but Blazers fans are certainly hoping that in a season gone wrong from the start, that an emerging star is learning on the fly..
Montreal Blazers 2002 - present
Atlantic Div Champs '02,'05,'06,'11,'12,'13,'14,'19,'21,'27,'30'33
Wild Card '04,'10,'20,'28,'29,'31,'32,'34

Image

John Callahan
GM: Montreal Blazers
Email: doghares@hotmail.com

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by RonCo » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:10 am

Most likely he's still growing through those ratings. One would expect he'll be fine next year--or certainly the year after.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
jiminyhopkins
BBA GM
Posts: 3487
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:33 pm
Location: OH
Has thanked: 296 times
Been thanked: 911 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by jiminyhopkins » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:14 am

I've often wondered if there was some sort of "inexperience/rookie jitters" modifier that makes young first year stars underperform. Not everyone has it, but there are a couple guys in Phoenix that exhibit such tendencies.
GM, 2051 and 2053 JL 4TH WILDCARD Phoenix Talons (2029-??), BBA
CARETAKER GM, 2053 GBC CHAMPION Tokyo Pearls (2053 - 2056)
GM, THE GREATEST MINOR LEAGUE TEAM OF ALL TIME Toledo Liberty
Vic Caleca Team News Award Winner: 2051, 2054, 2057

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by RonCo » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:21 am

If Kondo's movement is on the low end of that rating, he's effectively a 5 movement pitcher...which is what his performance suggests might be most likely. That alone is enough to create the rookie jitters. :) On the other hand, Markus could have anything in there, eh?
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

JohnC
Ex-GM
Posts: 1664
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 2:51 pm
Location: Newcastle, Ontario, Canada

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by JohnC » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:47 am

Could be true Ron but I don't get too caught up in that. For me, it says he is a 6, so he is a 6. If he was a 5, then it would show 5. There is a cut off point between 5 & 6 is he over that so it makes him a 6.. just my POV. There is always several things that factor into poor seasons and they all seem to be in play this year in Montreal.
Montreal Blazers 2002 - present
Atlantic Div Champs '02,'05,'06,'11,'12,'13,'14,'19,'21,'27,'30'33
Wild Card '04,'10,'20,'28,'29,'31,'32,'34

Image

John Callahan
GM: Montreal Blazers
Email: doghares@hotmail.com

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by RonCo » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:49 am

Yep. I agree with all the above. :)
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

agrudez
Ex-GM
Posts: 7681
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:30 am
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 47 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by agrudez » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:01 pm

Pitchers (especially RHP) with less than 7 MOV are generally the plague to me, but I, also, subscribe to the "rookie jitters" theory a bit (though not necessarily as a random element in the game, but rather as a 'this player might have a 12/6/8 rating in the HTML, but in the file it might really be a 230/110/150 instead of a 249/129/169 since they are still developing'). I'm not sure what his ceiling might be, but surely he'll be better than he is now down the road.
League Director: Kyle “agrudez” Stever*
*Also serves as chief muckraker
-Ron, 2025 media guide

Image

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:15 pm

agrudez wrote:Pitchers (especially RHP) with less than 7 MOV are generally the plague to me, but I, also, subscribe to the "rookie jitters" theory a bit (though not necessarily as a random element in the game, but rather as a 'this player might have a 12/6/8 rating in the HTML, but in the file it might really be a 230/110/150 instead of a 249/129/169 since they are still developing'). I'm not sure what his ceiling might be, but surely he'll be better than he is now down the road.
We're saying mostly the same thing.

How low MoV can go is dependent on the POW ratings in the league, too. As they fall, lower MOV can succeed. That's always hard to determine, though.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

usnspecialist
Ex-GM
Posts: 6652
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:39 am
Location: Manama, Bahrain
Has thanked: 207 times
Been thanked: 776 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by usnspecialist » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:25 pm

i admit to following kondo closely, since he was the lynchpin in making the gillstrom trade happen.
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

Image

agrudez
Ex-GM
Posts: 7681
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:30 am
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 47 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by agrudez » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:31 pm

RonCo wrote:We're saying mostly the same thing.
I think we're saying exactly the same thing - was just piling on.
RonCo wrote:How low MoV can go is dependent on the POW ratings in the league, too. As they fall, lower MOV can succeed. That's always hard to determine, though.
That's not how I understand OOTP. My understanding is that there is an internally set number of HRs that the file attempts to generate throughout the league in a given year. Then, how much of that pre-determined pie a player takes is dependent on his POW (within the circumstances presented to him throughout the year - ie. stadium factors, pitchers he faces, etc.) relative to the rest of the league as the file attempts to curve fit the league's player ratings to match its overall stat goals at the end of the season. That would mean that if the average POW rating in the league is 5 with a +/- STD of 2 and the average pitcher MOV is 7 with a +/- STD of 3 then a 7 POW vs. a 10 MOV would be an "equal" matchup in terms of elite vs. elite. If POW avg is 3 with a STD of +/- 1 and MOV is 7 +/- 3 then 4 vs. 10 is an "equal" matchup. So... in determining how "low MOV can go" you should be looking at league average MOV, not league average POW.
League Director: Kyle “agrudez” Stever*
*Also serves as chief muckraker
-Ron, 2025 media guide

Image

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:31 pm

That's not how OOTP works.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

agrudez
Ex-GM
Posts: 7681
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:30 am
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 47 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by agrudez » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:34 pm

Our first agree to disagree - now I'm getting nostalgic.
League Director: Kyle “agrudez” Stever*
*Also serves as chief muckraker
-Ron, 2025 media guide

Image

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:39 pm

I often take great pains to say whan I don't know something for sure, but in this case I know with something close to 100% certainty how OOTP uses its ratings to create its results.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:48 pm

I have described it often over the years, both here and on other sites. In the old days Markus discussed it in the public forums a bit--though never in great depths...given how slowly ratings evolve in a league, it's not a major competitive advantage to know, but I suppose that at at times it does allow you the occasional insight into what's going on.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

agrudez
Ex-GM
Posts: 7681
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:30 am
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 47 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by agrudez » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:53 pm

So the entire league total modifiers tab in-game is a red herring? I'm not sure I buy that. Should be an easy experiment... create a league and then sim 2 seasons - 1 with a high HR league total modifier and 1 with a low league total modifier. We're probably both confident enough in our assertions, as per usual, to not bother with the legwork, though. :)
League Director: Kyle “agrudez” Stever*
*Also serves as chief muckraker
-Ron, 2025 media guide

Image

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:55 pm

It is not a red herring at all. But understanding how the game calculates its results helps you understand league totals. The league totals are not actually totals. They are, instead, rates.

Entering the following league totals will result in a league that creates the same output.

AB 100000
HR 2000

AB 1000
HR 20
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:00 pm

agrudez wrote:So the entire league total modifiers tab in-game is a red herring? I'm not sure I buy that. Should be an easy experiment... create a league and then sim 2 seasons - 1 with a high HR league total modifier and 1 with a low league total modifier. We're probably both confident enough in our assertions, as per usual, to not bother with the legwork, though. :)
I've done this literally hundreds of times as a beta. When you keep all other things steady and raise the HR league totals modifier a bunch, you get a whole bunch less HR. When you lower it, you get a whole lot more.

Same thing for every other modifier except AB.

Believe me Kyle. In this case I know exactly what I'm talking about because I worked closely with Markus on this. I am one of the handful of folks (full disclosure here) who basically created the entire BABIP rating with him when we went to the DIPS engine.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “Montreal Blazers”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests