Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
When the 2034 Blazers projected their starting staff for the season, Aki Kondo was a lock to be the 5th starter. The young rookie posses three plus pitches, combined with high velocity and decent control. With a powerful offense behind him, he seemed a lock to have a strong rookie season. As we know, things don't always go as planned...
Through 20 starts on the season, Kondo has only won a single game. A 1-7 record. Not the kind of start to a promising career the Blazers were hoping for. His ERA currently sits at 5.16. Some of that can certainly be blamed on some shaky defense behind him. The Blazers are ranked a dismal 13th in team defense. There have been some internal discussions about sending him to AAA for the rest of this disappointing season, but GM Callahan prefers at this point to try and let him learn at the ML level. "Generally speaking, when I promote a player to the ML level, I prefer not to send him back to the minors again. I like to make sure they are already developed and in a position to have success. In Kondo's case, I am hoping this will be something that he learns from going forward", said Callahan.
One season does not define a career, but Blazers fans are certainly hoping that in a season gone wrong from the start, that an emerging star is learning on the fly..
Through 20 starts on the season, Kondo has only won a single game. A 1-7 record. Not the kind of start to a promising career the Blazers were hoping for. His ERA currently sits at 5.16. Some of that can certainly be blamed on some shaky defense behind him. The Blazers are ranked a dismal 13th in team defense. There have been some internal discussions about sending him to AAA for the rest of this disappointing season, but GM Callahan prefers at this point to try and let him learn at the ML level. "Generally speaking, when I promote a player to the ML level, I prefer not to send him back to the minors again. I like to make sure they are already developed and in a position to have success. In Kondo's case, I am hoping this will be something that he learns from going forward", said Callahan.
One season does not define a career, but Blazers fans are certainly hoping that in a season gone wrong from the start, that an emerging star is learning on the fly..
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
Most likely he's still growing through those ratings. One would expect he'll be fine next year--or certainly the year after.
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
I've often wondered if there was some sort of "inexperience/rookie jitters" modifier that makes young first year stars underperform. Not everyone has it, but there are a couple guys in Phoenix that exhibit such tendencies.
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
If Kondo's movement is on the low end of that rating, he's effectively a 5 movement pitcher...which is what his performance suggests might be most likely. That alone is enough to create the rookie jitters. On the other hand, Markus could have anything in there, eh?
Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
Could be true Ron but I don't get too caught up in that. For me, it says he is a 6, so he is a 6. If he was a 5, then it would show 5. There is a cut off point between 5 & 6 is he over that so it makes him a 6.. just my POV. There is always several things that factor into poor seasons and they all seem to be in play this year in Montreal.
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
Pitchers (especially RHP) with less than 7 MOV are generally the plague to me, but I, also, subscribe to the "rookie jitters" theory a bit (though not necessarily as a random element in the game, but rather as a 'this player might have a 12/6/8 rating in the HTML, but in the file it might really be a 230/110/150 instead of a 249/129/169 since they are still developing'). I'm not sure what his ceiling might be, but surely he'll be better than he is now down the road.
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
We're saying mostly the same thing.agrudez wrote:Pitchers (especially RHP) with less than 7 MOV are generally the plague to me, but I, also, subscribe to the "rookie jitters" theory a bit (though not necessarily as a random element in the game, but rather as a 'this player might have a 12/6/8 rating in the HTML, but in the file it might really be a 230/110/150 instead of a 249/129/169 since they are still developing'). I'm not sure what his ceiling might be, but surely he'll be better than he is now down the road.
How low MoV can go is dependent on the POW ratings in the league, too. As they fall, lower MOV can succeed. That's always hard to determine, though.
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
i admit to following kondo closely, since he was the lynchpin in making the gillstrom trade happen.
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
I think we're saying exactly the same thing - was just piling on.RonCo wrote:We're saying mostly the same thing.
That's not how I understand OOTP. My understanding is that there is an internally set number of HRs that the file attempts to generate throughout the league in a given year. Then, how much of that pre-determined pie a player takes is dependent on his POW (within the circumstances presented to him throughout the year - ie. stadium factors, pitchers he faces, etc.) relative to the rest of the league as the file attempts to curve fit the league's player ratings to match its overall stat goals at the end of the season. That would mean that if the average POW rating in the league is 5 with a +/- STD of 2 and the average pitcher MOV is 7 with a +/- STD of 3 then a 7 POW vs. a 10 MOV would be an "equal" matchup in terms of elite vs. elite. If POW avg is 3 with a STD of +/- 1 and MOV is 7 +/- 3 then 4 vs. 10 is an "equal" matchup. So... in determining how "low MOV can go" you should be looking at league average MOV, not league average POW.RonCo wrote:How low MoV can go is dependent on the POW ratings in the league, too. As they fall, lower MOV can succeed. That's always hard to determine, though.
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
I often take great pains to say whan I don't know something for sure, but in this case I know with something close to 100% certainty how OOTP uses its ratings to create its results.
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
I have described it often over the years, both here and on other sites. In the old days Markus discussed it in the public forums a bit--though never in great depths...given how slowly ratings evolve in a league, it's not a major competitive advantage to know, but I suppose that at at times it does allow you the occasional insight into what's going on.
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
So the entire league total modifiers tab in-game is a red herring? I'm not sure I buy that. Should be an easy experiment... create a league and then sim 2 seasons - 1 with a high HR league total modifier and 1 with a low league total modifier. We're probably both confident enough in our assertions, as per usual, to not bother with the legwork, though.
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
It is not a red herring at all. But understanding how the game calculates its results helps you understand league totals. The league totals are not actually totals. They are, instead, rates.
Entering the following league totals will result in a league that creates the same output.
AB 100000
HR 2000
AB 1000
HR 20
Entering the following league totals will result in a league that creates the same output.
AB 100000
HR 2000
AB 1000
HR 20
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Re: Rough Initiation for Kondo - 2034
I've done this literally hundreds of times as a beta. When you keep all other things steady and raise the HR league totals modifier a bunch, you get a whole bunch less HR. When you lower it, you get a whole lot more.agrudez wrote:So the entire league total modifiers tab in-game is a red herring? I'm not sure I buy that. Should be an easy experiment... create a league and then sim 2 seasons - 1 with a high HR league total modifier and 1 with a low league total modifier. We're probably both confident enough in our assertions, as per usual, to not bother with the legwork, though.
Same thing for every other modifier except AB.
Believe me Kyle. In this case I know exactly what I'm talking about because I worked closely with Markus on this. I am one of the handful of folks (full disclosure here) who basically created the entire BABIP rating with him when we went to the DIPS engine.
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