63.46 Annual WAR by Position Performance Review: 2063 Edition

[Bob Breum]

My goal is to earn three WAR at each position. After each season, I review the success, or lack thereof, in the achievement of this goal.

TEAM POSITION PLAYER WAR BY SEASON

	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061	2062	2063
WAR	19.5	32.5	30.8	21.3	16.0	10.8	23.6	34.8
RS	733	843	764	741	658	675	717	763

In 2063, our offensive WAR hit a new high during our Montreal tenure, exceeding that of our 100-win season in 2057, but that was largely a result of our strong team defense. Our runs scored increased substantially but fell far short of 2057.

TEAM PITCHING WAR BY SEASON

	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061	2062	2063
WAR	16.1	14.5	19.1	16.6	17.1	15.6	18.8	16.0
RA	731	729	655	735	690	738	644	628

With arguably our best defense during our Montreal tenure, we saw Runs Allowed reach a new low even as our pitching WAR decreased. The latter can be attributed to a relatively weak bullpen. Our starting pitching was very strong. We plan to address the bullpen in the offseason; it will be our primary focus.

TOTAL TEAM WAR BY SEASON

	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061	2062	2063
WAR	35.6	47.0	49.9	37.9	33.1	26.4	42.4	50.6
RD	+2	+114	+109	+6	-32	-63	+73	+135
PYTH	81	92	92	82	77	74	89	95
WINS	81	100	92	82	78	84	95	90

Both Team WAR and Run Differential were our best ever during our time in Montreal.


In last season's Performance Improvement Plan, we made the following proposal:

• Concern: Designated hitter generated negative WAR
  Plan: I hope to fill this internally. Perhaps we can sign a free agent DH late in the FA cycle without overpaying.

Actual outcome: We tried a potpourri of players at DH with no more success than in prior seasons. Ultimately, we brought up Jedidiah Marzuq to play right field, moved Clancy Lee to his natural position of left field, and installed Manny Burgus at DH. This worked very well but so much negative WAR had been accumulated before this that the position managed only 0.4 WAR for the season.


POSITIONAL REVIEW

CATCHER

We installed Qaseem Kahil, 25, as our starting (left-handed) catcher and used Jamie Behnke as his platoon partner to start the season. After the first month Behnke, 31, looked to be done, hitting .175. We brought up Pablo Trevino, also 25, to fill the short-side platoon role.

Kahil had a breakout rookie season, hitting .274/.330/.497 (132 OPS+) with 17 doubles and 17 home runs versus right-handed pitching and recording 4.0 WAR and 8.4 framing runs. Trevino started well but faded, hitting .206/.220/.412 against left-handed pitching, finishing with 0.3 WAR and 3.1 framing runs. Our total WAR of 4.2 at catcher improved by 50% over last season. We'll give Calvin Upchurch, 25, a chance to unseat Trevino as Kahil's platoon partner next season but it is likely that Trevino will return.

FIRST BASE

Team captain Dan Wilkinson, 25, turned in another solid season, hitting .273/.326/.476 (125 OPS+) with 39 doubles, 23 home runs, and 3.7 WAR. He is expected to win his second Yogi Zimmer Diamond Glove. We just extended him for six years and our fan interest increased by three points; he is Extremely Popular with the Montreal fan base.

SECOND BASE

Speaking of Extremely Popular, Jaime Serna has become an international superstar in only his second season. He hit .296/.366/.505 (146 OPS+) with 42 doubles, 12 triples, and 17 homers, good for 6.4 WAR. He is above average at the keystone with a +5.5 zone rating and can fill in at third base and shortstop when needed.

THIRD BASE

Denes Terovolas is a below average third baseman with a zone rating of -7.2 at the hot corner this season but he still managed 6.0 WAR thanks to his mighty bat. He won the batting title, hitting .329/.388/.577 (171 OPS+) with 42 doubles and 26 home runs. He missed the better part of a month or his counting stats would be even higher. The team struggled in his absence.

SHORTSTOP

Unfortunately, Reynaldo Serrano could not stay on the field this season. He played only 22 games, hitting .258/.287/.539 (129 OPS+) with eight steals in nine attempts. His 0.9 WAR in only 22 games suggests what he is capable of if he can remain healthy for a full season.

In his stead, we deployed Maximo Gousto, Jeffrey Loring, Enver Kuscu and others, but ultimately the shortstop position fell from last season's 3.4 WAR to only 2.1 WAR.

LEFT FIELD

In his sophomore season, Manny Burgus continued to demonstrate that he is a left-handed hitter who can hit southpaws as well as righties. He hit .279/.347/.499 (138 OPS+) with 36 doubles, 7 triples, 24 home runs, and 4.2 WAR. He is a solid left fielder but gave way to Clancy Lee when he assumed DH duties after the July promotion of Marzuq.

CENTER FIELD

The good news is that Ed Rooney started 124 games and spent no time on the injured list. The bad news is that his production fell off. He hit .228/.297/.297 (71 OPS+), far below his career norms. His defense also sagged, as he posted a zone rating of +8.5, about half of his career average. Despite playing 18 more games than the year before, his WAR decreased from 3.0 to 2.1. There is no clear evidence of a rating decrease but with the scouting history wiped by OOTP 26 it isn't clear one way or the other. I'm hoping that this was just an off year.

RIGHT FIELD

Lee started the season as our right fielder but moved to left field when Marzuq was called up. We sat him against left-handed pitching but he was outstanding against righties, hitting .312/.347/.562 (154 OPS+) with 32 doubles, 5 triples, 19 home runs, and 24 steals, just missing the 20/20 club. He posted positive zone ratings at all three outfield positions, with +4.3 in 71 games in RF, +3.2 in 38 games in left field, and +0.9 in 19 starts in CF where he spelled Rooney. All told, he earned 4.5 WAR, his best season to date.

The switch-hitting Koray Kapkin was Lee's platoon partner, as he hits southpaws much better than righties. This season he hit .262/.339/.440 (121 OPS+) against left-handed pitching. He is primarily a corner outfielder but he can play both centerfield and shortstop without embarrassing himself. He accrued 1.6 WAR in 88 starts.

Marzuq, long the touted prospect, is in the big leagues to stay at age 26. Another left-handed hitter with a platoon issue, he hit .289/.363/.490 (141 OPS+) with 21 doubles, 5 triples, 10 home runs, and 16 steals against right-handed pitching. He recorded a zone rating of +3.5 in 56 games in right field. In 60 games he accrued 1.9 WAR.

DESIGNATED HITTER

As detailed earlier, we solved our DH problem by moving Manny Burgus to DH. If he continues his current production, we should be able to count on 4+ WAR.

SUMMARY

We surpassed our 3 WAR benchmark at each position except shortstop and DH. I believe that we have the solution in-hand at DH. We can only hope that Serrano can avoid another lost season.


PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT PLAN

• Concern: Catcher platoon mate could be upgraded.
  Plan: This is not an urgent need but I'll be on the lookout for a right-handed hitting catcher with strong framing and better production against southpaws.
• Concern: Bullpen production was down, resulting in failure to achieve our Pythagorean record.
  Plan: This will be our primary offseason concern. Expect a major makeover.

[BaseClogger]

Burgus won’t WAR 4 at DH. Hes deriving some of his value from defense and the positional adjustment will hit him hard. Probably closer to 3 WAR.

[Bob Breum]

Burgus won’t WAR 4 at DH. Hes deriving some of his value from defense and the positional adjustment will hit him hard. Probably closer to 3 WAR.

As noted in my ZR review, his defense declined this season. If you pull up his batting splits for 2063, you'll see this:

	vRHP	vLHP	Overall
WAR	3.2	1.5	4.2

The sum of vRHP and vLHP add up to 4.7.

Now here is the same data for Ed Rooney, our center fielder:

	vRHP	vLHP	Overall
WAR	0.6	0.1	2.1

The sum of vRHP and vLHP add up to 0.7.

My conclusion is that vRHP + vLHP = Batting WAR sans defense; Overall WAR includes defense. If this is correct, it suggests that Burgus may not see a decline in WAR at DH if his offensive production remains the same.

PS Here is the data from 2062 when Manny won a Gold Glove with a 10.5 ZR:

	vRHP	vLHP	Overall
WAR	2.5	1.5	4.4

In this case, vRHP + vLHP = 4.0, which tells us that his defense added 0.4 WAR.

[BaseClogger]

There is a positional adjustment component in WAR. The difference between corner outfield and DH should be close to 1 win.

This correlates somewhat to the examples you’ve provided. In 2063 he had 7.5 runs removed for position adjustment but offset some of it with defensive value. In 2062 he had 7.5 runs removed but was +11.5 runs defensively.

[Bob Breum]

There is a positional adjustment component in WAR. The difference between corner outfield and DH should be close to 1 win.

This correlates somewhat to the examples you’ve provided. In 2063 he had 7.5 runs removed for position adjustment but offset some of it with defensive value. In 2062 he had 7.5 runs removed but was +11.5 runs defensively.

I understand that. It seems to me that the vRHP and vLHP numbers have no positional adjustment.

[BaseClogger]

Probably not. Using WAR on something that only incorporates time at the plate doesn’t really make sense. You could just use runs created at that point.

[Trebro]

Always enjoy looking at reviews of the end of the season. I do think the reliance on WAR can be a bit too much of a flawed stat, however, as Kurt points out. But still, the improvements in offense are striking.

On an aside I can't prove, it feels a bit as if right now the newer hitters are above the newer pitchers, leading to teams having improved offensive stats but a decrease in pitching ability. I don't know if that's strictly true or not, but it's a gut feeling without evidence.

[Bob Breum]

Using WAR on something that only incorporates time at the plate doesn’t really make sense. You could just use runs created at that point.

Challenge accepted. Here is Manny Burgus alongside the top vote getters in the JL at DH:

Player	RC	PA	RC/27
Arturo Perez	88.7	522	4.6
Michael Little	116.1	708	4.4
Manny Burgus	100.4	622	4.4

Perhaps I need to change my DH metric. Instead of 3 WAR I could aim for 70 runs created.

[BaseClogger]

Those guys illustrate how difficult it is to accrue much more than 3 WAR at DH. BBA does a *much* better job getting offensive production out of DH than MLB does.

[Bob Breum]

Using WAR on something that only incorporates time at the plate doesn’t really make sense. You could just use runs created at that point.

Challenge accepted. Here is Manny Burgus alongside the top vote getters in the JL at DH:

Player	RC	PA	RC/27
Arturo Perez	88.7	522	4.6
Michael Little	116.1	708	4.4
Manny Burgus	100.4	622	4.4

Perhaps I need to change my DH metric. Instead of 3 WAR I could aim for 70 runs created.

I went back and calculated total RC at DH by using the percentage of a player's games as DH and then taking that percentage of their total RC. We got 75.2 RC from our DHs. That suggests that my target of 70 RC is too low.

There were 31 players with at least 100 RC last season. Fifty players had at least 90 RC. 75 posted 85 or more.

I think I'll use 85 as a benchmark going forward for my DH position.

[BaseClogger]

Thinking out loud that it would be interesting to take individual WAR production by player, add static position adjustment, and subtract RC to see who is getting the most boost from their baserunning and defense. Since there is no easy way to split out each WAR component easily with the game’s statistical dataset.

[Trebro]

Thinking out loud that it would be interesting to take individual WAR production by player, add static position adjustment, and subtract RC to see who is getting the most boost from their baserunning and defense. Since there is no easy way to split out each WAR component easily with the game’s statistical dataset.

This sounds like a job for Ron when he has more time again.