Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

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Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by aaronweiner » Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:14 am

Take that, Moneyballers. The Rockville Pikemen are currently second in the league in runs scored and runs per game, and a solid third in OPS, which is causing a bit of a stir in the Old Line state. Even beyond that, they're clearly defying the odds, as they are currently hitting less than one home run per game and have drawn significantly less walks than anyone in the league. Can they keep this up or are they doomed to fail to sabermetrics?

"We think we can do it," said Yi-ke Zang, whose good health has him leading the Pikemen in WAR this year. "We don't see any reason we won't."

The Pikemen's success offensively is entirely built around batting average, which sabermetricians claim is completely random. However, looking at the talent and the names, one wonders whether or not the team really can hit .317 for the season, their current number. Dusty Rhodes, one of the great contact hitters in the history of the league, is leading the squad with a .391 average, and it's not as if Mario Guerrer's .333 average is a surprise - he hit better last year.

"If you look at the names and you look at their talent, it's not really that surprising we're hitting so well," said Valeri Kharlamov, who himself is hitting .343 this season. "We have every reason to believe that the team should continue on this path."

It's still shocking how seldomly the Pikemen take a walk. Francisco Flores, hitting .362, has one walk in 130 PA. Rhodes has just 12 walks in 180 PA, Jin-song Xuan has yet to take one, Zang has just seven in 180 PA.

"We just go up and hack and hack and hack all day long," said Xuan. "We're such talented and productive hitters that we get lots of hits and put lots of pressure on the defense."

The Pikemen are also fifth in the league in steals, though with Xuan's injuries up until now that number is primarily from Zang's 38 steals (which leads the league in that category). Another secret to their success: the team almost never strikes out. In fact, their rate of 7.07 AB per strikeout is so prolific it's over 20% better than the second-place team in that category and would be the best rate for a full season we could find.

"We're just going to keep it up," said Zang. "We have so much talent on this team."

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Re: Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by RonCo » Sat Mar 24, 2018 8:19 am

Nice work, but on the field and off. But, sabermetricians don't say batting average is random.
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Re: Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Mar 24, 2018 8:30 am

RonCo wrote:Nice work, but on the field and off. But, sabermetricians don't say batting average is random.
ya it isnt random, but it isnt as good a measure of batting effectiveness as OBP is.
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Re: Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by aaronweiner » Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:02 am

It's not COMPLETELY random, but it's perhaps the noisiest statistic in baseball.

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Re: Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by JimBob2232 » Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:14 am

Slightly off topic, but just wanted to say I love the title “sticking points”

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Re: Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by RonCo » Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:52 am

Interesting stat of the moment:

Best Team Offensive BABIP
Rockville: .345
Montreal: .343
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Re: Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by RonCo » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:15 am

aaronweiner wrote:It's not COMPLETELY random, but it's perhaps the noisiest statistic in baseball.
That's an interesting debate.

BAVG is noisier than BABIP (for hitters), and noisier than OBP, which is probably noisier than OPS. I suppose. All of those are considerably quieter than RBI?

Kind of like Wins (and BABIP) are noisier than ERA for pitchers, which is noisier in turn than FIP. Are wins noisier than BABIP for pitchers? In some uses, arguably not.
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Re: Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by RonCo » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:20 am

Pitchers control/influence batting average by their strike out rate and limiting HR. Once a ball's in play, though, their influence is not high enough to factor in (in most cases).

Hitters have actual influence on BABIP, and influence on their K-rate and HR-rate. Hence the noise in a hitter's average is based on externalities like ballpark and opponents, as well as the mathematical laws of randomness.
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Re: Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by udlb58 » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:11 pm

More than one way to skin a cat. We lead the BBA in runs but are 13th in average (thanks to being 3rd in HR and BB and 1st in SB....how did that happen?)
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Re: Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by RonCo » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:14 pm

udlb58 wrote:More than one way to skin a cat.
Indeed. If you do anything _massively_ better than the others, you gain an advantage.
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Re: Sticking Points 2034.8: Offense Second In JL

Post by aaronweiner » Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:17 am

JimBob2232 wrote:Slightly off topic, but just wanted to say I love the title “sticking points”
There was no other choice for me when I switched to the Pikemen.

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