The Kraken Release 2004.04: April-May Recap

[cheekimonk]

The Kraken Release
June 1, 2004
Charlotte, NC
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Kraken standings @ June 1st:

Frick League Atlantic Division
GB Last 10
Montreal Blazers 33-22 .600 --- 5-5
Buffalo Bison 31-22 .585 1.0 4-6
Carolina Kraken 22-32 .407 10.5 3-7
Atlantic City Gamblers 13-42 .236 20.0 3-7

It's the elephant in the room for the Carolina Kraken. For that matter, it's the elephant on the field and in the stands, too. That's why it's easy to look at the defending FL Atlantic champions entering June with the 3rd-worst record in baseball, 10.5 games out of the division lead and 9.5 out of the Wild Card, and chalk it up to the career-ending injury suffered by superstar LF Manuel Aguilar two days before the start of the 2004 season. But a closer look reveals a different picture. Consider the comparison of offensive statistics from 2003 to 2004:

Stat 2004 Change (%)
Runs/G 4.4 +10.3%
HR/G 0.9 +41.2%
AVG 0.258 -2.8%
OPS 0.732 +3.4%

It seems as if the offense has adjusted well considering the magnitude of the loss. But that's probably a misleading conclusion, too. At this point in 2003 the Kraken had been without slugging 1B Larry Sunderland for nearly 6 weeks and SS Raúl Huerta for the month of May. So while the difference on offense between last year and this year looks positive, it's also helpful to step back and realize that 4.4 runs per game and a team AVG of .258 is just not very good.

Things are worse for Carolina on the mound. Team ERA has jumped nearly 20% to 4.40, Quality Starts are down from 55.6% to 46.3%, saves have been converted at a 63% rate compared to 79% in 2003, and the bullpen has allowed 37.7% of inherited runners to score this season compared to only 22.5% a year ago. With errors, unearned runs, and BABIP all down from last season at this point, the pitching staff isn't let off the hook by the defense either. Last year there were rumblings that Carolina was experiencing a ton of luck for some pitchers and while it's difficult to confirm or deny luck, the dip in production for these players in particular is not hard to confirm:

Player: 2003 final stats | 2004 as of June 1st
Jose Mijangos: 30 GS, 11-10, 2.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .292 BABIP, 1.74 K/BB | 9 GS, 4-3, 5.14 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .272 BABIP, 1.67 K/BB
Bob Stephan: 20 GS, 10-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .260 BABIP, 1.54 K/BB | 5 GS, 1-3, 4.34 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .314 BABIP, 2.21 K/BB
Frank Bateman: 54 G, 4-0, 4.22 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .295 BABIP, 1.17 K/BB | 24 G, 1-1, 1 SV, 5.40 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, .469 BABIP, 1.74 K/BB
Simon Degree: 65 G, 4-2, 5 SV, 2.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .260 BABIP, 2.83 K/BB | 13 G, 1-1, 6.94 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, .447 BABIP, 1.43 K/BB

It's also difficult to ignore that the squad is a ridiculous 8-21 at home and 4-13 in 1-run games.

So what can Kraken fans expect the rest of the season? It's hard to be optimistic. Worse, GM Teague's complete restructuring that led to a pennant last year puts the team in an all-in or all-out situation now. The starting rotation has an average age of 31.2 years. The bullpen averages 29.7 years but that includes 38-year-old Rene Arocha, 31-year-old Bateman, and 30-year-old Degree. In the field the starting catcher is 33-years-old and the backup is 30, while the infield averages 32.25 years of age. That is the profile of a team that should be hitting its stride instead of skidding into summer as one of the worst teams in baseball. Add in the completely barren minor league system and that's even more true.

So if rebuilding is necessary, it will be a complete rebuilding. One could argue that the squad is worse off than it was in 1998 when the slide started that lasted 5 seasons and included two 100+ loss campaigns. Is the man who guided the club into that abyss, briefly out, and apparently now deeper capable of delivering better days for Kraken fans? Will he even get the chance? Should he get the chance?