2058.13: Da Bears Two Months In - Pitching and Defense

[BaseClogger]

6/3/2058


In Moneyball Billy Beane suggests the first two months of the season are about collecting data before acting to shake up the team. Now two months into the 2058 season, I want to analyze the Bears roster to identify our strengths and areas to improve.

ERA: 3.82 (6th)
FIP: 4.28 (15th)
xFIP: 4.34 (19th)
HR%: 2.9% (17th)
K%: 16.9% (19th)
BB%: 7.05% (5th)
GB%: 46.1 (26th)
BABIP: .317 (17th)
Total ZR: 12.48 (4th)

Ranking sixth in team ERA is a great sign for a pitching staff playing its home games in Chico’s Bail Bond Field. The staff accomplishes this by limiting walks and relying on the strong defense behind them. An area of concern is the number of flyballs surrendered and whether we can continue to limit the big flies. Last year’s staff was effective at limiting home runs too but had a much higher groundball rate.

The defense has great range but makes a lot of errors which drives down the ERA. Despite a strong defense the Bears are only middle of the pack in BABIP. Considering ground balls have a higher BABIP than flyballs I think we’ve been a little BABIP unlucky on the pitching side, just like the offense.

Now, I’ll list the starting rotation with each pitcher’s ERA+, as well as the primary defense and their individual ZR. Link to the team roster here.

Arnold Cantell (105)
Rubén bin Majid al Din (166)
Alexander Swanson (137)
Fernando Ferretti (99)
Morgan Tomsett (93)

Majid al Din is a regression candidate, clearly, while the rest of the numbers are sustainable… perhaps a small flip between Cantrell and Swanson. My great hope is that Tomsett starts living up to his 75 POT rating. True to form, my bullpen is lacking in lockdown studs but is full of contributors. The team bullpen ERA is middle of the pack.

SS Sammy McNeill (6.0)
RF Tommy Harrison (1.1)
LF Jeffrey Smith (1.8)
1B Michael Schultz (-1.0)
3B Roberto Rivera (0.8)
2B Dick Walton (1.6)
C Clinton Tyler (1.1)
CF Kei-thing Law (1.4)

Defensively we see McNeill making the expected impact. So called DH Jeffrey Smith has been great in left field. Harrison remains an excellent two-way player. Rivera, Tyler, and Walton are also positive defenders. Law has rebounded after a negative ZR last year. I’m not sure he can keep it up now that he’s only got an 8 outfield range rating but the other parts of his defensive game are strong. Schultz hits more than enough to be a slight negative at first base.