2058.12: Da Bears Two Months In - Hitting and Baserunning

[BaseClogger]

6/3/2058


In Moneyball Billy Beane suggests the first two months of the season are about collecting data before acting to shake up the team. Now two months into the 2058 season, I want to analyze the Bears roster to identify our strengths and areas to improve.

Runs: 259 (13th)
K%: 17.1% (11th)
BB%: 7.18% (24th)
ISO: .181 (10th)
wOBA: .319 (13th)
BABIP: .271 (30th)
SBs: 13 (30th)
wSB: -3.36 (29th)

San Fernando’s offense is aggressive at the plate but above average at making contact. When we do make contact it tends to be loud—we’re tied with Des Moines for third in the league in home runs. Last year’s club had a team BABIP of .307 so this variable is clearly hurting the team offensively. Another point of consideration is San Fernando’s home ballpark which is one of the most hitter-friendly in the league. I usually estimate that to be worth 5 to 10 spots in offensive team rankings. If the park factor and BABIP luck cancel out we’d be left with a slightly above-average offensive team which sounds about right. Stolen bases aren’t an element of run production we utilize and baserunning in general acts as a slight drag on the Bears offense.

Now, I’ll list the primary lineup and each player’s wRC+. Link to the team roster here.

Sammy McNeill (73)
Tommy Harrison (153)
Jeffrey Smith (137)
Michael Schultz (182)
Don Moore (102)
Roberto Rivera (100)
Dick Walton (57)
Clinton Tyler (79)
Kei-thing Law (52)

Michael Schultz is hitting .305/.373/.685 and has a real shot at 60 home runs. Schultz may come back to Earth a bit but it should be offset by improvement in Don Moore’s play. He’s been a consistent hitter for three seasons prior and is starting to heat up. Tommy Harrison is nearly playing at the same level he did in 2057. Jeffrey Smith is doing what I’m paying him to do. Rivera and Tyler are both hitting well enough to not offset their defensive value.

I acquired McNeill in part because I didn’t expect Walton to stay healthy again. I hoped at least one of McNeill or Walton would always be on the field and at least one of them would contribute offensively. Instead, they’re both currently hurt and neither has been an effective hitter. Improvement offensively rests on their shoulders (as well as every other part of their body that could be injured). In their place, Takeichi Suzuki is slashing .252/.274/.336. I think he’s a little better than that but he’s also a 22 year-old rookie.

Center field was a known black hole entering the season. If you have a center fielder to offer in a trade please let me know!

[Dington]

Lotta bad luck.

[BaseClogger]

Lotta bad luck.

Prior to 2057 I was always bottom of the barrel in team BABIP offensive so maybe last year was just good luck. It doesn't make a lot of sense considering my home ballpark should inflate BABIP, although I didn't start focusing on my contact ratings until 2057 either.